Trends Identified
Storytelling: 'Eventually there'll be a Twitter classic'
Are you reading fewer books? I am and reading books is sort of my job. It's just that with the multifarious delights of the internet, spending 20 hours in the company of one writer and one story needs motivation. It's worth doing, of course; like exercise, its benefits are many and its pleasures great. And yet everyone I know is doing it less. And I can't see that that trend will reverse. That's the bad news. Twenty-five years from now, we'll be reading fewer books for pleasure. But authors shouldn't fret too much; e-readers will make it easier to impulse-buy books at 4am even if we never read past the first 100 pages. And stories aren't becoming less popular – they're everywhere, from adverts to webcomics to fictional tweets – we're only beginning to explore the exciting possibilities of web-native literature, stories that really exploit the fractal, hypertextual way we use the internet. My guess is that, in 2035, stories will be ubiquitous. There'll be a tube-based soap opera to tune your iPod to during your commute, a tale (incorporating on-sale brands) to enjoy via augmented reality in the supermarket. Your employer will bribe you with stories to focus on your job. Most won't be great, but then most of everything isn't great – and eventually there'll be a Twitter-based classic.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
“Disruptive” technologies
“Disruptive” technologies in development, the spread
of which will bring substantial changes in production, employment, well-being, governability, and human relations.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Natural-resource scarcity
Natural-resource scarcity affecting water, food supplies, energy, and minerals. Also changes in demand and technological innovations.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Demographic changes and displacement of power
Demographic changes and displacement of power, new markets, rising middle classes, and migration.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Urbanization and growth of cities
Urbanization and growth of cities, population concentration, demands for infrastructure and basic services, quality of life, and competitiveness of cities.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Climate change
Climate change, its effect on agriculture, “green-growth” opportunities, citizen awareness, and behavioral change.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Democratic governability
Democratic governability, impact of new technologies
in connecting citizens, forging social relations, improving transparency, strengthening security, and providing opportunities for organized crime and cyber-attacks.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Globalisation
During the next 30 years, the number of transactions, conducted irrespective of physical distance, is likely to increase. Such an expansion is likely to shape and, in general, improve everyday life for millions of people. A key feature of globalisation is likely to be the continuing internationalisation of markets for goods, capital, services and labour, which integrates geographically dispersed consumers and suppliers. This is likely to be an engine for accelerating economic growth, but also a source of risk, as local markets become increasingly exposed to destabilising fluctuations in the wider global economy.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Climate Change
Overwhelming evidence indicates that the atmosphere will continue to warm at an unprecedented rate throughout the 21st century. A scientific consensus holds that a large part of this warming is attributable to human activities, primarily through increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. However, there is uncertainty about the rate and magnitude of change over the next century.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Inequality
Economic, social and political inequality of opportunity, occurring between both individuals and groups will continue to fuel perceptions of injustice among those whose expectations are not met. This will increase tension and instability, both within and between societies and result in expressions of unrest such as disorder, violence, criminality, terrorism and insurgency. While material conditions for most people are likely to improve over the next 30 years, the gap between rich and poor is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence