Trends Identified
The Role of the Family
The movement of people in pursuit of economic opportunity and a secure environment will create more cosmopolitan population centres and change the character and utility of the family.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Access to Information
The pervasiveness of ICT will enable more people to access and exploit sophisticated networks of information systems. For example, in 2007 there were 280 million mobile phone subscribers in Africa, a penetration rate of 30.4%. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2012 and may result in total coverage in as little as 10 years.162 The Internet and associated technologies, together with digitised portable communications, will increasingly become the means by which a rapidly expanding array of audio, visual and written information products are distributed.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Increasing Media Impact
The media will retain an overarching influence shaping an individual’s values and beliefs both consciously and unconsciously. However, this impact is likely to vary across states, dependent on the censorship and control systems they have in place. The ‘democratised’ Internet makes it likely that almost every member of global society is able to access free information from a variety of sources.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Altered Identities
Identity is an umbrella term used to describe how people perceive themselves and others. An individual belongs to multiple identity groups, through birth, assimilation, or achievement and each particular group influences their values and beliefs. Historically key influences for identity have been often along ethnic, racial, national and religious lines, however out to 2040 new influences are likely to emerge. For example, online social interaction is likely to increase in sophistication and scale. Social networking sites fused with ‘virtual reality’ networking sites, such as Second Life, may lead to new ways of interacting, new variations of language and the formation of complex relationships between individuals on a global scale.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Declining Civic Values
The spread of transnational networks are likely to impact on an individual’s identity. Many people in affluent societies are increasingly likely to regard their relationship with the state in consumerist rather than civic terms, while governance standards in many developing societies are unlikely to keep pace with economic and social change. Civic support systems may decline producing an increased reliance on local communities, extended family networks and personal patronage.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Gender Equality
The significance of the divide between societies that are progressing towards gender equality and those that are not, will continue to grow. Progress towards equality will be uneven and conditioned by cultural assumptions, demographic trends and economic circumstances.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Energy Demand
Global Energy use has approximately doubled over the last 30 years170 and, by 2040, demand is likely to grow by more than half again. Despite concerns over climate change, demand is likely to remain positively correlated to economic growth171 with fossil fuels, meeting more than 80% of this increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing Energy Mix
The energy mix will evolve responding to cost, availability and technological developments. There will be continued utilisation of all current energy sources, and fossil fuels are likely to continue to account for over 75% of total energy usage.174 Oil will remain the dominant fuel, given its importance in the transportation sector and the availability of infrastructure that supports its distribution.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Volatile Energy Markets
Energy supply will struggle to meet growing demand leading to upward pressure on prices. When supply and demand for energy are closely matched, rapid increases in demand to which supply can not react quickly can lead to large variations in price; therefore markets are likely to be volatile.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing Patterns of Behaviour
Growing material prosperity is likely to result in behavioural changes with associated effects, such as changes in consumption, diet and health. The proportion of the world population considered to be middle-income has increased rapidly over the last 30 years and, out to 2040, may increase by a further 80 million per annum if rapid economic development continues in countries such as India, China and Brazil. Consumption of food, water, energy and minerals will remain positively correlated with increasing prosperity despite efforts towards conservation, recycling and environmentalism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence