Trends Identified
Continued importance of communicating the EU
The Communication strategy needs to inform citizens of the EU about the EU’s added-value and its functioning and decisions which impact upon the daily life of each of its citizens.111 Informing citizens about the complex EU multi- governance system and to engage citizens’ awareness and active engagement in this system is challenging.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing need to restore citizens’ perceptions about voice
EU citizens have increasingly grown discontented about the functioning of the EU as a political system. When asked whether their voice matters in the EU a record 67% of the electorate thinks it does not.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Rise of anti-EU, anti-establishment movements
The economic and financial crisis has put pressure on the political fabric of EU integration. Anti-establishment and populist parties on the far left and far right are emerging throughout the EU. Exploiting the public sense of economic insecurity and fractured national identity, these parties blame the EU for job losses, public spending cuts and rising immigration.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing need for effective decision- making
Other challenges include ways for the EU to function more effectively and aggregate citizens’ voice more effectively in order to react to their concerns and build trust at every level of governance121. This is by all means the foremost important challenge the EU is facing over the coming decades.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Development of multipolarity and The growing interdependence on unprecedented scale
Over the past decades, the world has moved from a bipolar to a multipolar and multi-actor world order with various power centres and a less certain global security situation. There is no reason to believe that multi-polarisation will not continue. Multipolarity means that there are fewer super states and more middle powers in world affairs due to the rapid economic growth of emerging economies, their increasing role on global markets and the share in foreign investments. Brazil, Russia, India and China together with South Korea, Turkey, Iran, Mexico and Nigeria are the emerging powers of today and tomorrow that make their voices heard on the global geopolitical scene.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Rising middle class in the developing world
Economic globalisation and growth in the emerging economies has lifted millions into the middle classes. It is projected that more than 70 million people are crossing the threshold to the middle class each year in almost all emerging economies. By 2020, roughly 40% of the world’s population will have achieved middle-class status by global standards—up from less than 20 % in 2010. This creates major opportunities for investment and prosperity and exports to emerging markets.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing trade and risk of rising protectionism
Over the last decades, the world has witnessed the broadest and deepest wave of globalisation it has ever seen and levels of trade and foreign direct investment progressed apace. In 2025, the volume of trade is expected to double in comparison to 2005 with most growth coming from Asia. With the economic and financial crisis, these achievements could come under pressure and progress in the negotiations of the Doha Development Agenda of the WTO, essential for the EU prosperity, could be limited. The WTO anchors international trade and a global economy in an open rules-based system based on international law.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing competition and the rise of emerging powers and relative decline of the West calling for a redistribution of global power and the EU's role in international organisations and the global diplomatic stage
By 2030, the economic power will have shifted from the West to the East and the US, the EU and Japan’s share of the global economy could shrink significantly— reversing their importance relative to the emerging world. As a result, the calls for rebalancing and more effective global coordination are one of the great challenges of current times. Under such trend, the need for cooperation in the framework of WTO as well as materialisation of a single European voice in multilateral institutions becomes imperative.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Continuing presence of instability in the world
The security challenges will remain a key issue for the EU over the next two decades. Structural change in Asia, Latin America, Eurasia, and Africa and particularly the Middle East with unresolved religious, sectarian, and ethnic tensions will continue to generate armed violence, including organised crime and terrorism.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Cloud computing
Cloud computing is a major technology leap that can give to public organisations, companies and SMEs virtually unlimited access to computing power without substantial capital investments in local IT infrastructure or advanced in-house ICT skills. Cloud computing can bring substantial advantages in particular as regards productivity growth as well as bring the tools needed for the digital revolution.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)