Trends Identified
Prosthetics and body implants
Pushed by ever more knowledge on tissues, bio-compatibility of materials, biological processes and IT, prosthetic implants are about to be developed for ever more human body parts. Europeans will continue to embrace this development. Double-digit growth rates can be expected. There will also be policy and regulatory challenges. The question of affordability and a possible social divide may arise.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Human enhancement
Pushed by military and medical research, human enhancement might change the day-to-day life experience of many Europeans in a few years from now-on, e.g. by creating an “augmented reality” and receiving information from IT via nerves-IT-interfaces. The big potential in terms of economic growth will be accompanied by policy and regulatory challenges and maybe even a societal divide. Any regulatory response must build on international cooperation to be efficient.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Synthetic biology
Scientific advances in synthetic biology are expected to provide the foundations for realising the full innovation potential of biotechnology in contained-use applications, mainly in health and industrial biotechnology applications. It will provide innovative solutions for the conversion of our current unsustainable fossil-based industries into sustainable and competitive bio-based industries for bioproducts (e.g. chemicals, polymers) and bioenergy, for new antibiotics and vaccines, and new diagnostics and treatments for cancer and rare diseases. At the same time, one has to take note of the ongoing debate regarding the scientific and legal definition of what synthetic biology comprises and of the discussions concerning potential risks and benefits of synthetic biology in terms of the environment, consumer health and biological diversity.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
DNA fingerprinting and personal genomes
Personal genomes will replace more traditional forms of identification. Newborns will be screened for possible genetic diseases and the genome data will be added to the healthcare record as a reference diagnostic point. Genetic information will be available if necessary for specific purposes. While individuals will own and actively manage their genetic and health data, safeguards will make sure that fundamental rights, including human dignity will be preserved in the EU.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Agriculture science
Agricultural sciences reflect the diversity of production systems and conditions and build upon a multi- and interdisciplinary curriculum encompassing disciplines from within natural, political and environmental sciences, engineering, socio-economy and humanities. Research has helped to establish a highly productive but also resource intensive sector. In the wake of emerging resource scarcity and effects of climatic variation attention is shifting from mere productivity considerations towards increasing resilience of agriculture vis-a-vis more variable climate and decoupling production increases from resource and energy use. Solutions to these challenges are likely to come from a better understanding of complex agro-ecosystems and the integration of ecological principles into traditional agricultural disciplines. Research into knowledge and innovation systems is seen as crucial to support translation of the proposed solutions into practice.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Precision agriculture
Precision Agriculture (PA) is a farming management concept. It aims to optimise returns on inputs, including machinery, labour, chemicals, water and energy, whilst potentially reducing environmental impacts and enhancing food safety. The concept is based upon observing, measuring and responding to inter and intrafield variability in crops, or to aspects of animal husbandry. The technology offers opportunity to stimulate co-innovation, strengthen competitiveness and to contribute to a more climate and eco-smart farming. PA is seen as an important route to 'sustainable intensification'.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Fisheries/aquaculture
Fisheries and aquaculture are a vital source of nutritious food, economic opportunities and jobs. Large volumes of fish are traded in international markets and the European Union is by far the world’s biggest importer. Over fishing continues to be a problem worldwide, though in the EU the proportion of fish stocks advised as over fished has fallen from 94% in 2005 to 39% in 2013. In 2013, the EU adopted the objective of the maximum sustainable yield for the management of its fisheries. Global aquaculture has grown at an impressive rate over the past decades and could provide two-thirds of world fish production by 2030. An increase in world human population from 7 billion towards 9 billion by 2050, and the emergence of a middle class will significantly increase demand for fish. Given the limited potential for further growth in world capture fisheries production, future demand will mainly rely on a substantial increase in aquaculture production.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Innovative food
Innovative smart food products and processes will be developed that will better respond to consumer preferences, health issues and environmental concerns. Policy bodies, industry and the public should be prepared to foster this transition that will open new job opportunities and bring benefit to society. Innovative food products are already on the market and more will come. Is the regulation ready to face this challenge?
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Recycling
In a context of increasing global awareness over the adverse environmental effects of improper handling of waste, European waste management is becoming increasingly complex due to growing waste generation and number of waste streams needing tailored management routes. It is thus challenging to improve the efficiency of the use of natural resources (e.g. “turn waste into resources” in a circular economy approach) and, ultimately, improve the environmental sustainability of current waste management strategies. Science-based evidence is nonetheless available showing that, from a life cycle perspective, significant environmental benefits can be achieved through higher rates of reuse, recycling and energy recovery. This is reflected also in several EC Directives. However, to identify cost-efficient and environmentally sound recycling options and set up waste-type specific targets for optimal recycling rates, adapting life-cycle based methodologies and applying them in a consistent way across high priority waste stream is required. Equally, it will be required to take into account also the social and economic aspects of waste management in a systematic manner.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Post-carbon society
To prevent the most severe impacts of climate change, the international community has agreed that global warming should be kept below 2 degrees compared to the temperature in pre-industrial times. This means a profound change for the world economy, biodiversity and oceans. EU leaders have committed to transforming Europe into a highly energy-efficient, low carbon economy and society. To lead the world to the post-carbon era, the EU has committed to cutting its emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 in view of reaching 80-95% emissions reductions in 2050. The European Commission proposes a mid-term target of 40% emissions reductions by 2030.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)