Trends Identified
The Asian century: economic powerhouse or stuck in transit
Asia is likely to eclipse Western Europe and the United States in a shift of economic power over the next five decades, regaining the dominant economic position it had some 300 years ago. Two influential studies, from the Organisation for Economic Co-opera on and Development and from the Asian Development Bank, predicted several years ago that the 21st century is likely to be dominated by Asia - the 19th century having belonged to Europe and the 20th century to the United States - if that continent’s governments pursue policies of inclusive growth, innovation, good governance and avoid what economists call the Middle Income Trap.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Jobless growth: will robots and computers destroy our jobs?
Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes predicted nearly 80 years ago that the world would face ‘technological unemployment’ ‘due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.’ Most mainstream economists say that the current technical revolution is set to destroy many jobs, but that it will create enough new ones to prevent unemployment from spiralling out of control. This is what happened during previous industrial revolutions. But a growing number of experts believe that Keynes’ prophecy may materialise in the 21st century, although wise government policies may significantly alleviate the process.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Blockchains and trust: a revolution, reformation or just another tech-toy?
OECD statistics show a constant decline in trust in national governments since 2007. Recent scandals such as the Panama Papers play their part. However, the issue goes much deeper when corruption and fraud govern. Then, societal perceptions change even faster in search of solutions to poverty, inequalities and vulnerabilities in infrastructure. Here, the blockchain technology that undergirds crypto-currencies could have a far-reaching impact as it is a cheap, tamper-proof and data based technology that can replace trust with transparency. It is a breakthrough that will fundamentally change people’s notions of centralised authority. Hence, zero-trust computing, digital public ledgers and self-executing smart contracts are emerging, blockchain-based trends that will be increasingly important in the coming years — by 2023 at the latest, according to the World Economic Forum.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Additive Manufacturing in 2030: how the next Gutenberg revolution may bring production
back to Europe
Additive Manufacturing (AM, also referred to as 3D printing) refers to the process by which three-dimensional products are built from the bottom up, adding material layer-by-layer on the basis of a digital file. Through this additive approach it is possible to manufacture complex shapes and intricate parts at near 100% material utilisation that could not have been made by traditional means. Due to its flexibility, its potential to fundamentally alter the production cycle and to ‘democratise manufacturing’, some believe AM and 3D printing to be the precursor of an ‘Industry 4.0’, a shift to a digitalised, automated and data-oriented manufacturing industry.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Intolerance and hate crime: the return of an old problem?
Increased intolerance has long been identified as a worrying trend in foresight reports. For example, the EUISS stated that ’Migrants and ethnic minori es will become the main target of groups opposing cultural diversity, and are likely to be the victims of xenophobia in many developed countries‘. The EUISS report framed it in the context of developments that were otherwise quite encouraging. It suggested that ’the decline of theories of conflict between civilisations and cultural relativism is therefore likely, although economic and
social difficulties may reverse this positive trend in some countries, and extremist identity politics and xenophobia will continue to leave
a mark on some parts of the world.’ In a similar vein, the Rand report spoke of the possibility that the presence of ethnic minorities would be widely regarded as undesirable and divisive. More recently, the refugee crisis from 2015 prompted the World Economic Forum to note that ’insularity, xenophobia and right- wing populism are gaining ground across the continent, calling into question the integration process and a common European front on international security policies‘.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The mobile internet and democracy: less citizen empowerment than we thought?
Realtime communications via internet and large-scale participation in social media can for the purposes of convenience be referred to
as the ‘mobile internet’. This is a relatively recent phenomenon, but it has already shown its potential to impact political affairs. The Arab Spring, the Umbrella movement in Hong Kong, and the emergence of new political parties in Europe, all owe a great deal to the emergence of new, internet-based channels for communication and networking. What impact will the mobile internet have in the coming years? One scenario is of greater participation in debate and in elections; another is of knee-jerk responses crowding out more deliberative and strategic policy-making. Some emphasise
the prospect of individual empowerment, while others worry about
a dumbing-down of the political process. A more fundamental question is whether the balance of power will ultimately shift towards, rather than away from, incumbents, who tend to have greater capacity to store and analyse user data.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Russia and China in 2030: authoritarian alliance or geopolitical rivals?
The relationship between China and Russia is likely to become stronger and Moscow’s dependency on Beijing will grow: Russia will be the junior partner. If Russia can cope with the limitations of this position, it could benefit from such a role.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa in 2030
The two most important events affecting the evolution of democracy in the region in the last two decades were the US Global War on Terror, especially the Iraq War, and the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Both led to major transformations in the region, which is now in turmoil: violent repression of legitimate protest and regional antagonisms have led to civil wars with over 15 million refugees; the securitisation of domestic politics, whereby ‘normal’ policy issues are treated as security threats, has put a stop to reform movements; and the low oil price and economic stagnation have further destabilised the region.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
An ageing global population
The world is facing an ageing population due to a combination of increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates. As dependency ratios shift with growing elderly populations, governments will be faced with falling saving rates, falling consumption, and growing pressure on social services. There are stark differences in demographic changes between developed countries and developing countries. In general, high-income countries are experiencing population stagnation or decline. Conversely, many developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are experiencing “youth bulges” and expansion of working-age population. Both demographic scenarios pose challenges for governments seeking to create policies that are economically sustainable and politically palatable.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Fragile globalisation in a multipolar world
Fears about weakening enthusiasm for globalisation have, seemingly, been realised in the past few years. However, there are numerous variables that will shape whether the purported anti- trade environment of 2016 lasts to 2035. In the most likely scenario, globalisation patterns will be shaped less by politics and more by structural factors. Global trade is steady as a percentage of global growth, likely due to China’s reorientation towards domestic consumption and the maturing of trade in goods. A more services-oriented economy will have different requirements for global trade governance, but Beijing, Brussels, and Washington will remain the key decision points for global economic affairs.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)