Trends Identified

Industrial and technological revolution

By 2035, technological advances will have a major impact on the social and economic foundations of society, potentially more far-reaching than the initial phase of computerisation from the 1980s onwards. Technologies involving automation and machine learning have the potential to disrupt job markets, making millions of jobs obsolete. As technologies like self- driving cars begins to proliferate, governments at all levels will be faced with questions of adaptation, governance, and human development. Countries will be forced to consider how much of their core information infrastructure they will permit to be run by companies domiciled in other countries. Parties may be faced with a trade-off between protecting consumers’ privacy and encouraging the growth of artificial intelligence firms that rely on large amount of data for training and improving algorithms. The question of when platform companies achieve monopolistic power will be a key issue brought before the court system in many countries.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Climate change and resource competition

Changes in the global climate due to rising greenhouse gases will not be reversed by 2035, even if great strides are made with the implementation of political agreements to greatly reduce carbon usage in the future. As the consequences of climate change become increasingly apparent -- and natural events such as famines and water strain become linked to climate change in popular discourse -- the world is likely to see climate-related political disputes proliferate at the national and international level. Renewable energy will proliferate and become cost-competitive around the world, but will trigger instability in countries dependent on fossil fuels, many of which are in Europe’s neighbourhood.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Changing power in the international system

In many ways, the power balance in the international system in 2017 looks broadly similar to the world in 2000. Yet in some fundamental ways, the world has changed considerably. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left its participants wary of foreign intervention. China has expanded its global presence. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to intervene in neighbouring countries and attack democracies with information ‘wars’. And the impact of the 2007-08 financial crisis has hit many nations’ capabilities to fund military increases. There are some broad trends that are likely to continue through 2035: the United States will remain the largest military power; China and regional leaders will see their power grow; Russia will focus on areas of asymmetric advantage to counteract its declining population; and the creation of a unified European military structure with significant expeditionary power will be one of the biggest wild cards in the international system.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

New arenas of state competition

When projecting long-term trends in international affairs, it is important to consider the possibility that the major conflicts of 2035 will be centred on issues that barely register in the international arena today, or are secondary matters at best. Over the next two decades, these will likely include: the space market; new weapons systems like unmanned vehicles; policing rogue states; cyberwarfare and internet governance; and the Arctic Ocean.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Politics of the Information Age

Politics often evolves as a reaction to changing societal and economic trends. There is evidence -- from measures on inequality to the percentage of the economy comprised of services -- that in much of the developed world, the industrial era has transitioned to an information economy. Political reactions to these economic changes are already underway across the United States and Europe. While they are highly unlikely to completely overturn the existing political landscape by 2035, they will add new layers that will shift partisan coalitions and incentive structures. Some of the most important aspects will be industry disruption and political competition for new or more important voting blocs such as newly upper middle class professionals, former industry workers, gig economy contractors, and the elderly.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Ecological threats

While climate change is a gradual process that will be felt over the course of decades, it also increases the likelihood of relatively sudden disasters, from stronger hurricanes, deeper famines, or droughts. By 2035, the world will most likely be confronted by more natural disasters, and the political system will be required to adjust to them. Northern Europe will see greater flooding. Southern Europe will experience more frequent heatwaves. The international system will need to create a more robust system to protect climate refugees and migrants, who will grow as climate change increases the power of natural disasters and rapid urbanisation means that natural disasters will affect more people.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Bottle fed

Liquid meals are typically the staple of babies and toddlers — but companies such as Soylent and Ample are creating “meal-replacement” drinks by fusing obscure ingredients, such as bioengineered algae (to provide lipids and fatty acids) and artichoke inulin (a source of carbohydrate). Beyond criticizing the potential tedium of drinking the same bottle each day, nutritionists have struggled to find fault with the health benefits of such drinks — which meet stringent US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) requirements.

2017

How we eat now: five disruptive food trends

EY

3D printing

The IoT and fine dining are increasingly crossing paths via 3D printing. Anything which can be liquidized, in theory, can form an ink which, layer by layer, amounts to a meal. And this has implications for customizing nutrients, liquidizing the unappealing. The process still takes a while — especially when cooling time is included. Moreover, the necessity of creating a cartridge for every different food group means additional costs and complexities. However, while to date 3D-printed food has found a foothold primarily in the more expensive restaurants, it is beginning to cross over into the mainstream.

2017

How we eat now: five disruptive food trends

EY

Insects

Inexpensive, nutritious and plentiful — insects fulfil many criteria that meat cannot. Food manufacturer Exo recently launched a set of bars made from cricket flour: cricket flour contains 60% protein, more calcium than milk and all essential amino acids, but is gluten- and dairy-free. It takes 100 gallons of water to produce 72g of crickets as opposed to only 6g of beef. Grasshoppers too are on the menu, along with fruit fly larvae. Over one-third of the world’s population already eats insects, such as caterpillars and termites — but questions remain as to how they can be presented to appeal to a more widespread consumer base.

2017

How we eat now: five disruptive food trends

EY

On-demand

Following a general trend for personalization through technology, food experiences can now be tailored to your specific tastes. Algorithms are used to track when supply of certain products outstrips demand, in order to push adjust pricing3. New apps get to know your tastes, similar to the way Spotify4 delivers music recommendations, and give you rewards for loyalty. Workplace vending machines are getting a significant makeover too — for example, Byte’s vending machines5 offer sushi instead of crisps and chocolate bars.

2017

How we eat now: five disruptive food trends

EY