Trends Identified
External Influences.
A number of strategic shocks could occur that are broadly outside the control of society, but would have considerable impact. These include a highly lethal pandemic, a geological or meteorological event of unprecedented scale, such as the eruption of a super-volcano, or the discovery of non-terrestrial intelligent life. In the military domain, the development of a new, as yet unforeseen capability that allows one state to exercise technological dominance over others would have a significant impact on the strategic context. Potential examples could include; quantum decryption, whole-scale application of nano-technology, biotechnology weapons or advanced robotics. This could ultimately result in the defeat of a Western military force on the battlefield in a ‘maxim gun’ moment,139 against an adversary who has the technological advantage over the West.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Dynamic Diaspora
Societies, including the UK, will become increasingly transnational.153 Growing proportions of their populations are likely to consist of ethnic groups that are a mixture of newly arrived immigrants and established second and third diaspora generations. Developed economies are likely to sustain an economic gradient for immigration which may have a transformational effect on their society and culture. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) developments and advanced mass- transit systems will facilitate and increase connectivity between ethnic and national diaspora and their communities of origin. These advances may reduce incentives for integration and assimilation and allow self-contained ‘virtual’ communities to exist across continents. Less benignly, diaspora will remain a medium for the international transmission of social risk, including: inter-communal violence, extremism and transnational organised crime, especially trafficking, smuggling and illicit trade. Such communities are likely to show local responses to transnational issues.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Energy Demand
Global Energy use has approximately doubled over the last 30 years170 and, by 2040, demand is likely to grow by more than half again. Despite concerns over climate change, demand is likely to remain positively correlated to economic growth171 with fossil fuels, meeting more than 80% of this increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing Energy Mix
The energy mix will evolve responding to cost, availability and technological developments. There will be continued utilisation of all current energy sources, and fossil fuels are likely to continue to account for over 75% of total energy usage.174 Oil will remain the dominant fuel, given its importance in the transportation sector and the availability of infrastructure that supports its distribution.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Volatile Energy Markets
Energy supply will struggle to meet growing demand leading to upward pressure on prices. When supply and demand for energy are closely matched, rapid increases in demand to which supply can not react quickly can lead to large variations in price; therefore markets are likely to be volatile.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Altered Identities
Identity is an umbrella term used to describe how people perceive themselves and others. An individual belongs to multiple identity groups, through birth, assimilation, or achievement and each particular group influences their values and beliefs. Historically key influences for identity have been often along ethnic, racial, national and religious lines, however out to 2040 new influences are likely to emerge. For example, online social interaction is likely to increase in sophistication and scale. Social networking sites fused with ‘virtual reality’ networking sites, such as Second Life, may lead to new ways of interacting, new variations of language and the formation of complex relationships between individuals on a global scale.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing Patterns of Behaviour
Growing material prosperity is likely to result in behavioural changes with associated effects, such as changes in consumption, diet and health. The proportion of the world population considered to be middle-income has increased rapidly over the last 30 years and, out to 2040, may increase by a further 80 million per annum if rapid economic development continues in countries such as India, China and Brazil. Consumption of food, water, energy and minerals will remain positively correlated with increasing prosperity despite efforts towards conservation, recycling and environmentalism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Environmental Impact
Water and air pollution, and soil degradation through acidification, contamination, desertification, erosion, or salination will remain problems, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is likely to become prized as research into the extent and variability of different forms of life yield significant technological and health advances. On land, diversity will be reduced as a side-effect of mass agricultural production techniques, industrialisation, urbanisation and through continued erosion of natural habitats, especially tropical rainforests.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Geophysical Risks
Between 1980 and 2000, 75% of the world’s population lived in areas affected by a natural disaster and, since 1998, around 500,000 people have been killed by earthquake activity alone,195 with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami accounting for over 40% of this total. Population growth, urbanisation in geophysically unstable regions, variable construction standards, and limitations of predictive and warning mechanisms suggest that casualty figures of this magnitude will be typical out to 2040. Demands on land usage will lead to increasing habitation in areas of significant risk, such as those susceptible to volcanic and seismic activity or low-lying coastal areas subject to inundation by tsunami. The net result is likely to be an increase in the scale of humanitarian crises and associated migration pressures.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence