Trends Identified
Resource Nationalism
Resource nationalism is state control or dominance of particular resources, especially energy, and the use of this power to achieve national political objectives. In 1978, international companies controlled production from 70% of oil and gas reserves; at present they control only 20% with national or state-dominated oil companies controlling access to 75% of proven conventional reserves.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Exploitation of Extreme Environments
The search for alternative sources of energy, minerals, food and water, enabled by the assured transfer and access to information, will become more urgent. Consequently the exploration of extreme environments such as: space; the Polar regions; the deep ocean; and deep underground regions is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Technological Innovation
Diminishing availability of low cost, easily accessible hydrocarbon resources, and the need to reduce carbon emissions, will stimulate intensive research to find alternative forms of energy, although a rapid decline in hydrocarbon use is unlikely.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Globalisation
Globalisation, based on persistent technological innovation, is likely to remain the most significant driver of long- term economic change. Nevertheless, liberal trade and investment policies that have accelerated globalisation since the end of World War II will be subject to periodic challenge, and may be temporarily reversed.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Material Expectations
Material expectations, fuelled by access to increasingly globalised communications and media, will be heightened by continued global economic growth, and by visibility of high standards of living in affluent states. Visible marginalisation, economic inequality and a sense of grievance, where they occur, are likely to increase in significance and become major political issues, possibly based around transnational agendas that advocate violent activism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Trade
When the global economy grows, and the majority of major economies participate in that growth, a significant backlash against trade liberalisation is unlikely and international trade will grow.211 However, trade growth may be temporarily reversed in response to periodic economic, resource or financial crises. Moreover, environmental crises and rising transportation costs, linked to climate change and high energy prices, may lower, or even reverse trade growth, especially in manufactured goods.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
System of Global Economic Governance
The contemporary global economy bears little resemblance to the fragmented post-World War II period when the current global economic governance regime was constructed. Although institutions created 60 years ago have adapted, the IMF and the World Bank are struggling to become representative and to remain relevant. Efforts to develop global institutions that are structured, funded, and empowered to act as a stabilising force for international financial markets will continue.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Growth
Over the last 30 years, the global economy has grown at a rate of 3- 4% and output has increased 4-fold.199 There has been regional variation: the newly- industrialised Asian economies have raised output 12-fold, while the G7 group of industrialised states have had a 5-fold increase. However, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced only a 3-fold increase, despite more than doubling its population and potential workforce during that time.200 Growth in the global economy will continue, accompanied by general improvements in material well-being. However, economic growth, combined with the continuing rise in the global population, will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals, and energy. When allied to demographic ageing and environmental and political challenges, the likely result is a reduction in global economic growth rates. This growth will continue to be uneven, fluctuating over time and between regions, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to lag behind other regions primarily because of governance challenges, linked to endemic corruption.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Distribution of Economic Power
Economic power has long been wielded by wealthy, high-income states such as the US and, to a certain extent, by the EU and its individual members, to achieve desired outcomes. This can be done through the negotiation of trade arrangements or through coercive sanctions. However, rapid economic growth in developing economies, increasing economic interdependence, and competition for strategic resources will erode the utility and effectiveness of economic power. The trend towards a multi-polar economic landscape is likely to continue. As resource scarcity starts to impact, China, India, and resource-rich states such as Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Brazil are likely to use economic levers to achieve geopolitical ends more frequently. By 2040, China’s and India’s output is likely to be of a similar magnitude to US and EU output, although their per capita income will remain significantly lower. Hence, 2 of the 4 largest global economies are unlikely to be high income states. The manner in which this disparity is perceived, and the extent to which China and India focus on internal development rather than wider global challenges, is likely to be fundamental to the global economic and strategic outlook.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Poverty
Between 1990 and 2002, global average incomes increased by approximately 21% and the number of people living in absolute poverty declined by an estimated 130 million; global child mortality rates fell from 103 deaths per 1,000 live births a year to 88; life expectancy rose from 63 years to nearly 65 years; an additional 8% of people in the developing world gained access to clean water; and an additional 15% acquired access to improved sanitation services.221 Economic growth is likely to lead to a continued reduction, albeit unevenly distributed, in absolute poverty.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence