Trends Identified
The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Access to technology that enables the production and distribution of WMD is likely to increase. Many states will feel that they require the prestige and deterrent value of WMD systems to reinforce their regional power.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Commercial Imperative
Global economic growth, resource pressure in its widest sense and increasing socio-economic dependency ratios will fuel demand; creating opportunities for innovation and investment. Development is increasingly likely to be directed towards commercial imperatives. For example, business enterprises accounted for 68% of OECD Research and Development (R&D) expenditure.233 This aspect will drive innovators to identify maximum applications and markets for their discoveries, with interdisciplinary R&D likely to lead to the most revolutionary outcomes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Advances in Simulation
Advances in social science, behavioural science and mathematical modelling will combine, leading to more informed decision making. Advanced processing techniques and computational power will permit a more comprehensive level of modelling, potentially enabling more effective pattern recognition. This is likely to improve the identification, representation and explanation of systems and processes. As a result, simulation will become an increasingly powerful tool to aid policy and decision makers. Simulation will also blur the line between virtual and real environments.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Transnational Extremism
Transnational armed criminal, terrorist or insurgent groups, experienced in conflicts around the world will be part of the strategic landscape. Many extreme political groups will have a transnational following, and may increasingly employ sophisticated methods of coercion, including cyber attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). They will remain highly unpredictable and a continued cause of tension and instability especially in regions that have underlying governance and economic problems, such as in sub-Saharan Africa and possibly Latin America. Most will demonstrate features associated with organised criminality, terrorism, disorder and insurgency, fuelled by perceived or actual grievances. There is likely to be an increased sponsorship of irregular activity by states, seeking to utilise and exploit, through proxies, gaps in the international system, either to assert themselves or to secure advantage without exposing themselves to state-on-state risks. Acts of extreme violence, including mass casualty attacks, will continue to be used by groups with sophisticated networks and the ability to exploit the media in order to maximise the impact of the ‘theatre of violence’.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Weak States
Many states and some regions will fail to attain the necessary level of economic and political development to compete in a sustained and successful manner in the global economy. These states are likely to be beset by a mixture of environmental, demographic, economic and political pressures with consequent impact on their stability and security. They can be regarded as weak states. Some weak states may fail completely, with sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, regions of global concern. The degree to which weak states impact on others is likely to depend on the security of supply of strategic resources to the globalised economy and whether internal instability spreads to neighbours, either through migration or conflict. Responses to weak states are likely to include humanitarian assistance, containment and stabilisation.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Non-State Actors
MNCs, large non-governmental organisations, as well as organised criminal groups, all work across the global stage. However, the authority of the state is likely to remain dominant. Non-State Actors are only likely to gain a similar degree of influence in areas where governance has broken down or is particularly fragile. Large MNCs, such as Gazprom, are increasingly state-owned and controlled, and other large corporations will have to work within the state based legislative framework if they are to gain access to resources and markets. While media and communication corporations may become ubiquitous global brands, the control by the state of the physical environment and operating space mean that it is unlikely that these corporations will have the means, methods or opportunities to usurp the power of the state. Non-governmental organisations, especially those associated with particular interests, will play niche roles and have influence within liberal democracies, but it is unlikely that their approaches of utilising the media, direct action and lobbying will have much impact on more authoritarian states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Behavioural and Cognitive Science
It will be more difficult to quantify the direct application of advances in cognitive science than it is in nanotechnology or biotechnology. However, indications are that certain interdisciplinary advances, such as neuro-imaging technologies, may make the mapping of brain activity with behaviour more reliable. Modelling techniques are likely to become more powerful and increasingly capable of more accurately understanding the complexity of human behaviour and performance at various scales, and over different time constants.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Biotechnology
Biotechnology encompasses a wide range of issues entailing the biological modification of organisms and non-living materials to develop new properties, which have application in medicine, food science and agriculture, and industrial manufacturing. Developments in biotechnology are likely to be swift as indicated by the significant increase in global biotech revenues ($23 billion in 2000 to $50 billion in 2005) and the purchase by large pharmaceutical companies of ‘biotech’ firms in order to secure the most effective avenues for future drug development.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Advances in Material Science
The design and manufacture of materials at the molecular level will result in ‘designer’ materials, with in-built capabilities to sense and modify their behaviour or functionality, introducing a new manufacturing paradigm. Most advances are likely to occur where material science combines with, or adopts, principles employed with other innovative disciplines including electronics, nanotechnology and biology.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence