Trends Identified
Pricing the planet
A collision is shaping up among the rising demand for resources, constrained supplies, and changing social attitudes toward environmental protection. The next decade will see an increased focus on resource productivity, the emergence of substantial clean-tech industries, and regulatory initiatives.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The market state
The often contradictory demands of driving economic growth and providing the necessary safety nets to maintain social stability have put governments under extraordinary pressure. Globalization applies additional heat: how will distinctly national entities govern in an increasingly globalized world?
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The rise of Asia continues
The rise of Asia is not a new phenomenon; the rise of Japan and South Korea has been witnessed over the second half of the 20th century. The start of the new millennium saw another boom, with many Asian economies recording high growth rates that took their share of global GDP from 26% to 32% between 2000 and 2014. Our extended long-term forecasts suggest that Asia’s rise will continue up to 2050—not quite at the same pace, but by 2050 it will account for 53% of global GDP.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Global dominance of the top three economies
By 2030 the top three economies of the world will be the US, China and India. Such will be the growth of the two latter countries, in particular, that by 2050 they will each be richer than the next five (Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil, and the UK) put together. This will represent a scale of wealth relative to the rest of the top ten that is unique in recorded history.
Given China’s and India’s economic might, they will take on a much bigger role in addressing global issues such as climate change, international security and global economic governance. In the medium term, this will require the world’s existing powers—notably the US—to let India, and especially China, play a greater role on the world stage and adapt international institutions to allow them to exert greater influence.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
A new era of global demographic decline
Global growth to 2050 is not expected to decline dramatically from its average historical levels. However, regional growth rates are expected to begin to decline across every region after 2030. Much of the global growth in recent decades has been driven by population growth. Long-term population estimates, however, reveal that growth in the global population is expected to see a dramatic decline from an average of 1.3% in the 1980-2014 period to 0.5% across the 2015-50 period. The slowdown in the growth rate of the global working-age population will be even starker, with a drop to 0.3% in the 2015-50 period, compared with an average growth rate of 1.7% in the 1980-2014 period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Population growth will still bene t a few
The majority of countries in Africa and the Middle Eastern region will benefit from an increase in their working populations, which will be an advantage in sustaining higher growth rates in the forecast period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
For most, population as a source of growth will need to be replaced
Most of Europe and East Asia, by contrast, is expected to see labour-force declines, representing a severe drag on growth. Japan will see the greatest decline of over one-quarter, from 66m to 47m; China and South Korea are also expected to experience a 17-18% contraction in their labour forces.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Collectively rich, individually not so rich
Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed economies, and as a result developing countries such as China and India are likely to overtake current global leaders such as the US, Japan and Western Europe, while other emerging markets, such as Indonesia and Mexico, will rank among the top ten economies at market exchanges rates by 2050, overtaking economies such as Italy and Russia. By contrast, in terms of income per capita, a measure of individual spending power, today’s advanced economies are likely to continue to dominate.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Aging populations
The baby boomer generation powered a long but temporary surge in labor force growth. Now this group is moving into retirement, and labor force growth is slowing. That, in turn, imperils growth.
2018
Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality
Bain and Company
Automation
Automation may solve one problem by increasing productivity and powering growth but creates another by potentially eliminating millions of jobs and suppressing wages for many workers.
2018
Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality
Bain and Company