Trends Identified
Store and process
Today we are seeing an increasing amount of data and computation migrate from our personal devices onto cloud platformsc. Many websites rely on basic cloud service building blocks provided by companies such as Amazon.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
User interface
The way we interact with technology has a huge impact on our productivity. Key examples include the mouse, the touch screen, and most recently, voice communication systems like Siri. Connecting voluminous data and computational power with our physical and biological reality will become ever more seamless and sophisticated. User interfaces will become more natural and in tune with natural human behaviour.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Machine / robotics Automating common tasks
Machines and robotics are endowed with AI (programmed algorithms) to ful l set tasks and goals. These generally fall into two key categories: ‘speci c task-based AI’ (e.g. a web search engine or an autonomous vehicle) and ‘general AI’ that aims to replicate aspects of human intelligence (e.g. IBM’s Watson or humanoid robots like Honda’s ASIMO).
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Internet infrastructure The backbone of our communications
The backbone ‘hard’ infrastructure that supports the ow of data across space will be under pressure to cope with tra c demands.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Shift of Global Power
Potential rebalancing of power from the West to other regions could present political and economic challenges to NATO members. While many developed nations have been experiencing slower economic growth, developing nations with faster growth may translate their rising economic power into greater political and military influence. As a consequence, the ability of the international community to integrate rising powers and manage the associated changes peacefully will be decisive for the future. Otherwise, the potential for tension or conflict could be increased in new as well as traditional hotspots, or threaten assured access to the global commons,17 compromising international relations and security.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Shifting Political Structures
The transition of autocratic/theocratic regimes towards more democratic forms of government will continue. The Middle East and North African region has experienced political upheaval in recent years, dislodging pre-existing regimes in several countries. The ongoing transition of some older established autocratic/theocratic regimes to more democratic forms of government will be turbulent. Over the next decades, established regimes are likely to continue to face reform movements. While this may eventually lead to new participatory and more inclusive democratic structures, transitional nations will likely weather a period of social and political instability, and possibly political reversals. For example, the republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union are in the process of democratisation and have experienced similar issues. Fledgling democracies will require more time to mature and stabilise. During this period they are at a greater risk of setbacks and civil strife.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Polycentric World
The world is becoming increasingly interconnected and polycentric. Emerging technologies, improved communications and access to modern transportation create newly empowered actors that may compete with traditional ones. The exponential rise of information technology enables dispersed individuals to act as an effective organised group within a network. This could empower and embolden organisations, advocacy groups, security providers, criminal syndicates, extremists, or individuals to attempt to shape the outcomes of political, social, economic, and environmental issues.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Changing Demographics
Future demographics will be driven by diverse effects. The world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 billion by 2030,28 but this growth will be unbalanced with varying regional effects. The average age of most Western populations is forecast to increase from the early to the mid-40s by 2030.29 Given higher birth and immigration rates, the United States will remain the youngest of the leading powers, while China’s population will age more rapidly given its increased longevity and lower birth rates. Accordingly, China will join Japan, Europe and Russia as one of the most rapidly ageing societies. India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country, whereas Russia and Brazil are likely to follow divergent paths with expected strong growth in Brazil and population decline in Russia. By 2030, the African continent is anticipated to have the fastest growing population.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Urbanisation
Cities will contain 65% of the world’s population by 2040, and 95% of urban population growth will occur within developing nations’ mega-cities33 (containing more than 10 million people). These urban centres will be situated generally in littoral areas, which provide easier access to trade and other advantages. Individuals will tend to migrate to areas offering broader employment and education opportunities, and possibly higher living standards. This will result in the urbanisation of roughly 75 million citizens every year. However, increased urbanisation is also accompanied by the growth of slums, which are expected to contain 1.5 - 2 billion people, or approximately 58% of the total urban population as early as 2020.34
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Human Networks / Transparency
Human networks are expanding at an exponential rate with many varying effects. Networks can be large or small, local or global, domestic or transnational, cohesive or diffuse, centrally directed or highly decentralised, purposeful or directionless. While they take many forms, networks are comprised of people, processes, places, and material. A human network is an alliance of socially connected individuals who are involved in activities to achieve some form of common social, political, monetary, religious, or personal goal. Although there can be many benefits and opportunities presented by modern human networks, transnational networks can also make malign use of the interconnected global environment to direct operations, raise money, obtain and train recruits, and freely exchange technological information.35
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO