Trends Identified
Fractured Identities
Several contributing factors may lead to a fracturing of national identity. In a more connected world, different cultures and groups gain a better understanding of each other, which may lessen internal strife. However, as a consequence of a number of factors (i.e. migration, globalisation, human networks and transparency), citizens may begin to identify themselves differently, and thus create heightened feelings of detachment from the whole or nation state. Individuals may rally around sub-national and supra-national groups, identifying themselves in terms of their city, ethnic nationality, religious or other association. Governments, corporations and non-state actors will find it increasingly difficult to identify a single public opinion on key issues. Affiliation with anti-government or extremist groups, as well as other challenges to national identity, will contribute to state instability and possible unrest.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Technology Accelerates Change
The accelerating cycles of exploration, discovery and exploitation of technologies, along with the innovative fusion of existing, emerging and new technologies will combine to bring about change rapidly in the future. These changes will be seen in diverse areas ranging from resource exploration to biotechnology and manufacturing. Advances in biotechnology will continue to extend life expectancy, improve health and cure illnesses, while extending these benefits to broader segments of the world. The transition to digital additive manufacturing (i.e. 3D printing) and fabrication could impact settlement patterns, labour, education, transportation, public health, the environment, and the conduct of war.38 Providing a foundation for all these advances, vast improvements in information and communications technology will progressively influence all aspects of economic, political and social interactions.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Increased Access to Technology
Commercial research and technology has begun to outpace that of governments in the development of new technologies. Many of the advances in goods, materials and technologies intended for civilian use (e.g. nuclear energy, biochemical medicine, or access to space and its associated technologies) will have potential applications in the development of weapon systems. This increases the possibility that non-state actors could gain access to advanced weapons or even WMD/E. The effectiveness of regulatory conventions intended to prevent the spread of potentially dangerous technologies will be reduced by increased access within the globalised marketplace. As world trade grows, norms regarding non-proliferation may become secondary to economic benefits. The threat of uncontrolled proliferation of weapon technology to non-state actors will increase as innovation, research and development, production, and distribution become more open and globalised.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Centrality of Computer Networks
A globally connected and networked world creates a universal availability of information. Technological innovation is rapidly delivering to the average citizen the benefit of a readily accessible vast collective knowledge and intellectual capital. However, with the significant advances in sensor networks and algorithms, there will be a growing capability for almost every aspect of a citizen’s life to be monitored by the state or other entities such as corporations.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Globalisation of Financial Resources
The financial networks and communication systems that manage the world’s critical resources are increasingly intertwined. The interconnected world creates greater opportunity for better management of global resources; it may also provide incentives for co-operation and multilateral approaches in addressing global issues. However, vulnerability to exploitation by non-state actors, ranging from international criminal networks to cyber criminals and terrorists, will increase. Attackers could target banking and financial institutions or communication systems. Additionally, as nations become increasingly interdependent, a negative economic event in one country could well be compounded globally as it spreads quickly to other markets.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Increased Resource Scarcity
Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to sustain growth and maintain an advantage in the globalised economy. Limited natural resources, supply vulnerabilities, and the uneven distribution of energy and resources increase the potential for conflict between importers, exporters and transit countries, particularly in politically unstable regions. Any nation that holds considerable oil, natural gas reserves or deposits of rare earth elements and other strategic materials43 might leverage its position both for political and economic purposes.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Decreasing Defence Expenditures
Governments faced with slow or non-existent growth, rising unemployment and increasing debt burdens will continue to have many competing priorities. Continuing volatility in financial markets might further slow global as well as national economic activity. Defence spending has continued to decline across the Alliance due to reduced economic growth, and the increasing emphasis on social programmes. There is a risk that, even if economic cycles turn more positive, public opinion may prevent some nations from reinvesting in defence. This will have a marked negative impact on defence capabilities in the future. The consequences of current and anticipated near-term reductions in Science and Technology (S&T) investment will have implications on longer-term force capabilities. These deficits could be offset by new, less expensive, and yet-to-be-developed technologies.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Environmental / Climate Change
Global environmental change and its impacts are becoming readily apparent and are projected to increase in the future. In some areas these changes could present benefits, such as less energy requirements for heating, longer growing seasons that allow increased agricultural production, and the opening of the Arctic for resource exploration and shipping traffic. However, these benefits are likely to be offset by negative effects elsewhere, including coastal inundation, desertification, deforestation and other ecological effects that will have a direct impact on the world’s fresh water and food. Water stress is expected to be the most inevitable near-term impact of climate change.49
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Natural Disasters
The effects of natural disasters will become more devastating. Natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, meteor strikes) will occur with devastating impacts on humanity. Increased population and infrastructure in disaster prone areas will magnify the consequences of these natural disasters.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
The redistribution of geostrategic power.
The predominance of NATO and the West is likely to be increasingly challenged by emerging and resurgent powers.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO