Trends Identified
Natural Disasters
The effects of natural disasters will become more devastating. Natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, meteor strikes) will occur with devastating impacts on humanity. Increased population and infrastructure in disaster prone areas will magnify the consequences of these natural disasters.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Natural gas from unconventional deposits and with unconventional extraction conditions
Natural gas from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions (shale, water-dissolved, gas from other low-permeability formations and deep beds, coal methane, gas hydrates) is unique for its lower mineral content per unit area and higher development costs compared with traditional reservoirs. Unconventional gas resources are estimated at about 950–1200 trillion m3 (excluding gas-hydrates and water-dissolved gas, which increase this value considerably) and are more than double the volume of traditional resources.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Natural language processing
The technology can translate not just a word, but a naturally spoken sentences where it can create and understand variety of expressions. The demand for translation of natural conversation is expected to rise exponentially due to declined physical and metacognitive ability from rapid aging. This technology can be combined with AI into a robot which can be useful for the elderly who needs someone to converse with.
2013
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2013
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Natural resource availability
Population growth will impact on those resources that are finite. In particular, there will be increasing pressure on water availability, both for drinking and for agriculture. The production of food will be a challenge as the availability of fertile land is limited, a situation that is exacerbated by the degradation of natural ecosystems. There will be increasing demand on finite sources of energy, with fossil fuels having to be extracted from previously unexploited locations. Other rare materials are also being used at rates which are unsustainable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Natural resource scarcity
Demographic pressures create food and water insecurity, and supplies of non-renewable natural resources including fossil fuels are depleting. Scarcity could push prices up, creating further hardship for those most in need. Notwithstanding the current low oil price, from 2000 to 2013 metal prices rose by 176%, energy prices by an average of 260% and food prices by 120%. Depending on political responses, this may drive humanitarian crises, population movements and a rise in protectionist or nationalist policies.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Natural Resources
Mineral discoveries and growing demand will change mining and sustainability will challenge renewables
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Natural resources and energy
A growing population coupled with economic growth will place considerable burdens on natural resources. Severe water stress is likely in many parts of the world, while food insecurity will persist in many, predominantly poor, regions. Energy consumption will also rise sharply, contributing to further climate change. Global biodiversity will come under increasing threat, especially in densely populated poorer countries.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Natural-resource management
Executives' concerns about the impact that increasing constraints on the supply or usage of natural resources will have on their companies' profits appear to be subsiding despite the prominence of these issues in the public debate today. Twenty-five percent of respondents now expect this trend to have a negative effect on their company's profits, down from 28 percent in last year's survey and 33 percent two years ago.
2010
Five forces reshaping the global economy: McKinsey Global Survey results
McKinsey
Natural-resource scarcity
Natural-resource scarcity affecting water, food supplies, energy, and minerals. Also changes in demand and technological innovations.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Nature: 'We'll redefine the wild'
We all want to live in a world where species such as tigers, the great whales, orchids and coral reefs can persist and thrive and I am sure that the commitment that people have to maintaining the spectacle and diversity of life will continue. Over the past 50 years or so, there has been growing support for nature conservation. When we understand the causes of species losses, good conservation actions can and do reverse the trends. But it is going to become much harder. The human population has roughly doubled since the 1960s and will increase by another third by 2030. Demands for food, water and energy will increase, inevitably in competition with other species. People already use up to 40% of the world's primary production (energy) and this must increase, with important consequences for nature. In the UK, some familiar species will become scarcer as our rare habitats (mires, bogs and moorlands) are lost. We will be seeing the effects from gradual warming that will allow more continental species to live here, and in our towns and cities we'll probably have more species that have become adapted to living alongside people. We can conserve species when we really try, so I'm confident that the charismatic mega fauna and flora will mostly still persist in 2035, but they will be increasingly restricted to highly managed and protected areas. The survivors will be those that cope well with people and those we care about enough to save. Increasingly, we won't be living as a part of nature but alongside it, and we'll have redefined what we mean by the wild and wilderness. Crucially, we are still rapidly losing overall biodiversity, including soil microorganisms, plankton in the oceans, pollinators and the remaining tropical and temperate forests. These underpin productive soils, clean water, climate regulation and disease-resistance. We take these vital services from biodiversity and ecosystems for granted, treat them recklessly and don't include them in any kind of national accounting.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian