Trends Identified
Ongoing globalization
Globalization will continue, with exports and FDI growing faster than GDP. The world's real GDP will grow by 4.0% p.a. to around USD 135 trillion by 2030, up from USD 62 trillion today. GDP growth will slow down compared to the past 20 years, when the increase was 5.3% p.a.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
OnLine Electric Vehicles (OLEV)
Wireless technology can now deliver electric power to moving vehicles. In next-generation electric cars, pick-up coil sets under the vehicle floor receive power remotely via an electromagnetic field broadcast from cables installed under the road. The current also charges an onboard battery used to power the vehicle when it is out of range. As electricity is supplied externally, these vehicles need only a fifth of the battery capacity of a standard electric car, and can achieve transmission efficiencies of over 80%. Online electric vehicles are currently undergoing road tests in Seoul, South Korea.
2013
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2013
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Online harassment
Lawmakers, advocates and social media companies have been looking into ways to curtail online harassment in the wake of high-profile cases concerning cyberbullying and online threats. A January 2017 survey found that online harassment is a fairly common feature of online life: 41% of Americans said they have experienced some form of it, and among those ages 18 to 29, the share was 67%.
2017
Key trends shaping technology in 2017
Pew Research Center
Open AI Ecosystem
One of the advantages that CEOs and celebrities have over ordinary workers is that they don’t need to spend much time handling the uninteresting, time-consuming aspects of daily life: scheduling appointments, making travel plans, searching for the information they want. The elite have PAs, personal assistants who handle such things. But soon— maybe even this year—most of us will be able to afford this luxury for the price of few lattes a month, thanks to the emergence of an open AI ecosystem. AI here refers, of course, to artificial intelligence. Apple’s Siri, Microsoft’s Cortana, Google’s OK Google, and Amazon’s Echo services are nifty in the way that they extract questions from speech using natural-language processing and then do a limited set of useful things, such as look for a restaurant, get driving directions, find an open slot for a meeting, or run a simple web search. But too often their response to a request for help is “Sorry, I don’t know about that” or “here’s what I found on the web.” You would never confuse these digital assistants for a human PA. Moreover, these systems are proprietary and hard for entrepreneurs to extend with new features. But over the past several years, several pieces of emerging technology have linked together in ways that make it easier to build far more powerful, human-like digital assistants— that is, into an open AI ecosystem. This ecosystem connects not only to our mobile devices and computers— and through them to our messages, contacts, finances, calendars and work files—but also to the thermostat in the bedroom, the scale in the bathroom, the bracelet on the wrist, even the car in the driveway. The interconnection of the Internet with the Internet of Things and your own personal data, all instantly available almost anywhere via spoken conversations with an AI, could unlock higher productivity and better health and happiness for millions of people within the next few years. By pooling anonymized health data and providing personalized health advice to individuals, such systems should lead to substantial improvements in health and reductions in the costs of health care. Applications of AI to financial services could reduce unintentional errors, as well as intentional (fraudulent) ones—offering new layers of protection to an aging population. The secret ingredient in this technology that has been largely lacking to date is context. Up to now, machines have been largely oblivious to the details of our work, our bodies, our lives. A human PA knows when you are interruptible, stressed, bored, tired or hungry. The PA knows who and what is important to you, and also what you would prefer to avoid. AI systems are gaining the ability to acquire and interpret contextual cues so that they can gain these skills as well. Although initially these AI assistants will not outperform the human variety, they will be useful—and roughly a thousand times less expensive. Various companies have already demonstrated AI systems that have some of these capabilities. Microsoft Research built one that knows when you are too busy to take a call (and which calls should ring through regardless) and that automatically schedules meetings at times you would likely choose yourself. Other companies such as Angel.ai have introduced services that search for flights that suit your preferences and constraints based on simple plain-English requests. Just as discretion and loyalty are prized among human PAs, digital versions will succeed only to the extent that we trust them with our security and privacy. Vendors will no doubt try to use such systems to influence our purchase choices. We will have to decide when and whether we are comfortable with that.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Open Secrets
When the huge resources being devoted to quantum research lead to large-scale quantum computing, many of the tools that form the basis of current digital cryptography will be rendered obsolete. Public key algorithms, in particular, will be effortlessly crackable. Quantum also promises new modes of encryption, but by the time new protections have been put in place many secrets may already have been lost to prying criminals, states and competitors. A collapse of cryptography would take with it much of the scaffolding of digital life. These technologies are at the root of online authentication, trust and even personal identity. They keep secrets—from sensitive personal information to confidential corporate and state data—safe. And they keep fundamental services running, from email communication to banking and commerce. If all this breaks down, the disruption and the cost could be massive. As the prospect of quantum code-breaking looms closer, a transition to new alternatives— such as lattice-based and hashbased cryptography—will gather pace. Some may even revert to low-tech solutions, taking sensitive information offline and relying on in-person exchanges. But historical data will be vulnerable too. If I steal your conventionally encrypted data now, I can bide my time until quantum advances help me to access it, regardless of any stronger precautions you subsequently put in place.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Open source is enabling community problem solving and differentiation
Often a problem is widely experienced by many different firms. Instead of solving it individually and sub-optimally, it makes sense to band together and solve it as a community. The open source model enables companies to tap into a community dedicated to building modern software, and to align with vibrant, active projects. As such, companies can accelerate innovation on the differentiating parts of their platform while leveraging the underlying foundational innovation of the broader open source community. The open source model lowers costs and in some cases achieves vendor independence. Notably, the cloud providers’ embrace of open source is leading to lower cost for additive cloud services as well as more robust competition. Open source also helps to attract the next generation of talent, who want to work on cutting-edge projects and have a positive impact on the world. Linux, an open source solution that modernized and replaced an outdated alternative, is a great success story. But not all projects achieve that level of success, and it is important to identify which ones are likely to remain vibrant and viable. One indicator is when the founders remain involved and the project is growing, as in the case of Confluent and Databricks with Apache Spark and Apache Kafka. Another positive sign is when open source projects are widely adopted across the major cloud providers, such as Docker and Apache Spark. Perhaps one misperception is that the acquisition risk is lower with open source technology. IBM bought Red Hat recently, and VMWare bought Heptio. As a result, companies that have decided to migrate toward an open source technology may find themselves bound to a large incumbent vendor once again. If this trend continues, the full benefits of tapping into open source may not be long-lasting. Moreover, some new license frameworks prohibit companies from reselling what they have built on open source. Given these trends, Nasdaq plans to contribute to a select group in the open source community. In particular, open source makes it easier for exchange customers to access data and derive insights from it in real time. If market participants handle data in a common way and with a common set of tools, individual firms do not have to devote resources to building those tools. Importantly, data can be shared in a way that does not compromise security and integrity to the benefit of all.
2019
NASDAQ DECODES: TECH TRENDS 2019 -The technology trends that are driving the world of markets forward
Nasdaq
Open-source warfare grows
“Do-it-yourself” surveillance and weapon systems will likely become more common, enabling new kinds of crimes and conflict. For example, the Switchblade Drone is lethal at short distances and fits in a small backpack. New developments in sensors, robotics and nanotechnology could lead to the more widespread use of remote sensors in surveillance, intelligence and warfare. Miniature unmanned aerial, surface and aquatic vehicles and devices – controlled either remotely or autonomously – are expected to become more prevalent. These will be smaller, cheaper and more widely available than today. Open-source knowledge may lead to widely distributed cyber-warfare capabilities. In addition, do-it-yourself enthusiasts may use synthetic biology to produce and release harmful substances into the environment – either accidentally or on purpose. In all these cases, technology originally created to enhance security may become the threat. In response, pre-programmed nanodevices and robots will likely create security networks and sensing surfaces that could identify threats such as nano-enabled weapons, viruses and poisons.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Opening doors
Traditionally, the complexity and opaqueness of government has served to limit participation and minimise public value for underserved and at-risk populations. Only those with the means or knowledge to navigate this environment have been able to maximise the value of government. However, new technologies, open data and the emergence of new business models in the private sector are creating space for government to explore a range of possibilities. Such mission-oriented and adaptive innovations seek to explore ways to open doors for everyone to access the public value of government, while also embracing the major shifts occurring in people’s everyday lives.
2019
EMBRACING INNOVATION IN GOVERNMENT-Global Trends 2019
OECD
Operating Systems And Analytics For Buildings
“As there’s more data available from sensors in buildings, they will provide analytics that could ‘say, turn off your HVAC 20 minutes earlier,’ and that could be a huge savings. Anything that moves in a building, a hinge, an elevator, a desk, will have a sensor in it…No joke, it’s a trillion-dollar capital opportunity.”
2018
The Most Important Tech Trends Of 2018, According To Top VCs
Fast Company