Trends Identified
Optimize for both social and business value
Several trends are fueling resentment toward business. The climate crisis and other negative externalities are increasingly visible, automation is sparking fear about the future of work, trust in technology is falling, inequality has risen markedly within many countries, and the most successful companies are becoming larger, more visible, and more powerful. As a result, the role of business in society is coming under question, risking the sustainability of the current model of corporate capitalism. Political institutions are not likely to address these concerns effectively in the foreseeable future. Demographics that portend lower global growth, massive public debts that limit investment, tensions resulting from international migration, and a social media landscape that amplifies extreme voices are all likely to continue fueling divisive, populist politics. The rise of China, and the growing US response, challenge the stability of multinational institutions that businesses rely on. In an era characterized by polarization, everything in business will likely become “political.” To keep the game of business going, business needs to be part of the solution. All stakeholders increasingly expect companies to play a more prominent role in addressing social challenges, which will be reinforced as newly adopted metrics and standards make their efforts and impacts more transparent. Leaders need to focus on their companies’ total societal impact—in other words, they need to make sure that their businesses create social as well as economic value. Not only can this increase financial performance in the long run, but it can strengthen the social contract between business and society, ensuring that the relationship is able to endure. Leaders will need to master the art of corporate statesmanship, proactively shaping the critical societal issues that will increasingly change the game of businesses.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Optogenetics
Brains—even relatively simple ones like those in mice— are daunting in their complexity. Neuroscientists and psychologists can observe how brains respond to various kinds of stimuli, and they have even mapped how genes are expressed throughout the brain. But with no way to control when individual neurons and other kinds of brain cells turn on and off, researchers found it very difficult to explain how brains do what they do, at least not in the detail needed to thoroughly understand—and eventually cure—conditions such as Parkinson’s disease and major depression. Scientists tried using electrodes to record neuronal activity, and that works to some extent. But it is a crude and imprecise method because electrodes stimulate every neuron nearby and cannot distinguish among different kinds of brain cells. A breakthrough came in 2005, when neurogeneticists demonstrated a way to use genetic engineering to make neurons respond to particular colors of light. The technique, known as optogenetics, built on research done in the 1970s on pigment proteins, known collectively as rhodopsins and encoded by the opsin gene family. These proteins work like light-activated ion pumps. Microbes, lacking eyes, use rhodopsins to help extract energy and information from incoming light. By inserting one or more opsin genes into particular neurons in mice, biologists are now able to use visible light to turn specific neurons on or off at will. Over the years, scientists have tailored versions of these proteins that respond to distinct colors, ranging from deep red to green to yellow to blue. By putting different genes into different cells, they use pulses of light of various colors to activate one neuron and then several of its neighbours in a precisely timed sequence. That is a crucial advance because in living brains, timing is everything. A signal issued at one moment may have the complete opposite effect from the same signal sent out a few milliseconds later. The invention of optogenetics greatly accelerated the pace of progress in brain science. But experimenters were limited by the difficulty of delivering light deep into brain tissue. Now ultrathin, flexible microchips, each one hardly bigger than a neuron, are being tested as injectable devices to put nerves under wireless control. They can be inserted deep into a brain with minimal damage to overlying tissue. Optogenetics has already opened new doors to brain disorders, including tremors in Parkinson’s disease, chronic pain, vision damage and depression. The neurochemistry of the brain is clearly important for some brain conditions, which is why drugs can help improve symptoms—up to a point. But where the high-speed electrical circuitry of the brain is also disturbed, optogenetic research, especially when enhanced by emerging wireless microchip technology, could offer new routes to treatment. Recent research suggests, for example, that in some cases non-invasive light therapy that shuts down specific neurons can treat chronic pain, providing a welcome alternative to opoids. With mental disorders affecting one in four people globally and psychiatric diseases a leading source of disability, the better understanding of the brain that advanced optogenetics will provide cannot come soon enough.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Orchestrated analytical security
Nontraditional systems are now getting connected, exposing the organizations that use them in entirely new ways. Organizations will have to make peace with the security reality of today and begin preparing their second line of defense—data platforms—to mitigate the damage of attacks that get through
2012
Accenture Technology Vision 2012
Accenture
Order comes to the Wild West of data collection.
After a year of scandals, the implementation of Europe’s GDPR and upcoming copycat legislation from other jurisdictions, the advertising business will move away from the wholesale collection of personal data and the extreme personalization of advertising, predicts Mihael Mikek, the founder and CEO of digital advertising platform Celtra. “The question will come down to, Is the data being used in a way that benefits the consumer or not?” he explains. “In the last five years, it’s been such a crazy race to collect as much as possible.” Advertisers will follow consumers, who will demand more ethical and consent-based use of their data. After The New York Times' investigation of location-tracking appspublished yesterday, location data is likely to be the next battlefront.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Organic electronics and photovoltaics
Organic electronics – a type of printed electronics – is the use of organic materials such as polymers to create electronic circuits and devices. In contrast to traditional (silicon-based) semiconductors that are fabricated with expensive photolithographic techniques, organic electronics can be printed using low-cost, scalable processes such as ink jet printing, making them extremely cheap compared with traditional electronics devices, both in terms of the cost per device and the capital equipment required to produce them. While organic electronics are currently unlikely to compete with silicon in terms of speed and density, they have the potential to provide a significant edge in cost and versatility. The cost implications of printed mass-produced solar photovoltaic collectors, for example, could accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
2013
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2013
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Organised Civil Society and Governance: Trends and Challenges
Advances in technology, wealth and income concentration, shifting demography, migration flows, under employment and climate change are transforming our societies. The (dis)empowered citizen, as introduced by the World Economic Forum 2016 Global Risks Report, describes the tensions between the growing cyber connectivity empowering citizens with more information and means of communications against the increasing feeling of exclusion from meaningful participation to decision-making among citizens and civil society.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Organs-on-chips
Outside of Hollywood special effects shops, you won’t find living human organs floating in biology labs. Set aside all the technical difficulties with sustaining an organ outside the body—full organs are too precious as transplants to use in experiments. But many important biological studies and practical drug tests can be done only by studying an organ as it operates. A new technology could fill this need by growing functional pieces of human organs in miniature, on microchips. In 2010, Donald Ingber from the Wyss Institute developed a lung-on-a-chip, the first of its kind. The private sector quickly jumped in, with companies such as Emulate, headed by Ingber and others from the Wyss Institute, forming partnerships with researchers in industry and government, including DARPA, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. So far, various groups have reported success making miniature models of the lung, liver, kidney, heart, bone marrow, and cornea. Others will certainly follow. Each organ-on-a-chip is roughly the size of a USB memory stick. It is made from a flexible, translucent polymer. Microfluidic tubes, each less than a millimeter in diameter and lined with human cells taken from the organ of interest, run in complex patterns within the chip. When nutrients, blood, and test compounds such as experimental drugs are pumped through the tubes, the cells replicate some of the key functions of a living organ. The chambers inside the chip can be arranged to simulate the particular structure of an organ tissue, such as a tiny air sac in a lung. Air running through a channel, for example, can then very accurately simulate human breathing. Meanwhile, blood laced with bacteria can be pumped through other tubes, and scientists can then observe how the cells respond to the infection, all without any risk to a person. The technology allows scientists to see biological mechanisms and physiological behaviors never before seen. Organ microchips will also give a boost to companies developing new medicines. Their ability to emulate human organs allows for more realistic and accurate tests of drug candidates. Last year, for example, one group used a chip to mimic the way that endocrine cells secrete hormones into the blood stream and used this to perform crucial tests on a diabetes drug. Other groups are exploring the use of organs-on-chips in personalized medicine. In principle, these microchips could be constructed using stems cells derived from the patients themselves, and then tests could be run to identify individualized therapies that are more likely to succeed. There is reason to hope that miniature organs could greatly reduce the pharmaceutical industry’s reliance on animal testing of experimental compounds. Millions of animals are sacrificed each year to such tests, and the practice provokes heated controversy. Ethical considerations aside, it has proven to be immensely wasteful—animal trials rarely provide reliable insights into how humans will react to the same drug. Tests done on miniaturized human organs might do better. Military and biodefence researchers see the potential for organs-on-chips to save lives in a different way. The simulated lung, and other devices like it, could be the next big step in testing responses to biological, chemical or radiological weapons. It isn’t possible to do this today, for obvious ethical reasons.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Other commodities
Demand for food will rise due to growing population and growing per capita food consumption. However, the growth rates in world agriculture1) will fall to 1.5% p.a. by 2030, compared to 2.1-2.3% p.a. over the past four decades. The world's food production is even threatened to fall by 2030 as a result of the projected changes in the ecosystem due to climate change. Agricultural efficiency is at risk due to water scarcity and limited sources of phosphate, an important component of mineral fertilizer. Conflicts will arise over the use of agricultural products as food or energy. Price will determine use
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Other dimensions of inequalities
Although overall gender gaps in education, employment and political representation have narrowed globally, women continue to face disadvantages in access to work, economic assets and participation in private and public decision-making.
2017
Global trends
UNDP