Trends Identified
The cloud
More production-related undertakings will require increased data sharing across sites and company boundaries. At the same time, the performance of cloud technologies will improve, achieving reaction times of just several milliseconds. As a result, machine data and functionality will increasingly be deployed to the cloud, enabling more data-driven services for production systems.
2015
Nine Technologies Transforming Industrial Production
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
The combustion engine will get smarter before it goes away.
Going green doesn’t have to be reserved for the wealthy who can afford to switch to an electric car, says Bertrand Piccard, chairman and pilot of Solar Impulse, who flew a solar plane around the planet. For middle class people struggling to fill up the tank — we were speaking at the start of the Yellow Vest protests in France — there are solutions. He points to an anti-smog device installed on the engine for a few hundred bucks that reduces fuel consumption by 20% and particles by 80%. Built-in AI in your car can help you drive greener and cut another 20% off the bill. “Today, half the energy we use is wasted because we have inefficient systems,” Piccard says. “There will be more carbon taxes because we can’t afford to keep wasting fossil fuels. But we can put systems in place to be less wasteful, to consume less, and in the end we’ll save money.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The Constituents of Power
Power is the ability to influence others. The constituents of power will continue to comprise a mix of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ elements.229 Hard power is military, economic and some elements of diplomatic activity that can be used to coerce or pay others to change their behaviour. Soft power is the power of attraction based on culture (when it is pleasing to others), values (when they are attractive and consistently practiced), and policies (when they are seen as inclusive and legitimate).230 Soft power is at its most effective when under-pinned by hard power. The degree to which a state or group can combine hard and soft power into an amalgam of effective statecraft will determine their ability to achieve strategic objectives. Some states, especially in Europe, are already reluctant to use the military element of hard power. This trend towards a post- military society is likely to remain strong, but not irreversible. The ability of the Western liberal democracies to utilise power is likely to be challenged by the rise of alternative power bases in Asia, in particular in China and India. Moreover, all elements of power are likely to be wielded by a broader spectrum of actors and agencies, even by organised criminal, terrorist and insurgent groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The construction of 3D-printed homes
Innovations in robotics, AI and building materials may change both the look and the construction of new homes. The advent of large-scale 3D printing means that homes could be built more rapidly and with nano-enhanced materials, making them even stronger and more energy-efficient than they are now. It could also mean lower costs and greater flexibility in home and urban design.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The conversation economy
Social computing has brought about substantial change in how people connect, how they converse, and how they get and share information. The social network itself is fast becoming a primary information channel for many people. Any object of attention—rumors, novels, recipes, petitions—can explode in importance and visibility if it taps into the right social channels at the right time. But information can also travel in the opposite direction: social networks are emerging as a rich source of information about consumer sentiment, preferences and desires. One clear implication of all this is that the conversation between organizations and individuals is changing, and customer relationships are being remade. We see three major “discontinuities” in the patterns of business-consumer communications. • Episodic communications are being replaced by continuous interactions;• "Talk at you" broadcast messages are making room for "talk with you" conversations; and • With a powerful media device as close as the nearest phone, companies—and individuals—have a new, powerful ability to “show” instead of “tell.”
2010
Accenture technology vision
Accenture
The cow-free burger
Both lab-grown and plant-based alternatives approximate the taste and nutritional value of real meat without the environmental devastation. The UN expects the world to have 9.8 billion people by 2050. And those people are getting richer. Neither trend bodes well for climate change—especially because as people escape poverty, they tend to eat more meat. By that date, according to the predictions, humans will consume 70% more meat than they did in 2005. And it turns out that raising animals for human consumption is among the worst things we do to the environment. Depending on the animal, producing a pound of meat protein with Western industrialized methods requires 4 to 25 times more water, 6 to 17 times more land, and 6 to 20 times more fossil fuels than producing a pound of plant protein.The problem is that people aren’t likely to stop eating meat anytime soon. Which means lab-grown and plant-based alternatives might be the best way to limit the destruction. Making lab-grown meat involves extracting muscle tissue from animals and growing it in bioreactors. The end product looks much like what you’d get from an animal, although researchers are still working on the taste. Researchers at Maastricht University in the Netherlands, who are working to produce lab-grown meat at scale, believe they'll have a lab-grown burger available by next year. One drawback of lab-grown meat is that the environmental benefits are still sketchy at best—a recent World Economic Forum report says the emissions from lab-grown meat would be only around 7% less than emissions from beef production. The better environmental case can be made for plant-based meats from companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods (Bill Gates is an investor in both companies), which use pea proteins, soy, wheat, potatoes, and plant oils to mimic the texture and taste of animal meat. Beyond Meat has a new 26,000-square-foot (2,400-square-meter) plant in California and has already sold upwards of 25 million burgers from 30,000 stores and restaurants. According to an analysis by the Center for Sustainable Systems at the University of Michigan, a Beyond Meat patty would probably generate 90% less in greenhouse-gas emissions than a conventional burger made from a cow. —Markkus Rovito
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review
The crystal ball internet
For around 20 years, starting in the 1980s, the political scientist Philip Tetlock sought predictions from people considered knowledgeable. His experts, 280 of them, were the kind of folk who, in their work as TV pundits or government advisors, opined on matters such as the rise of China or security in the Middle East. As time passed, he checked their forecasts. The results were dismal. “Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world… are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys,” wrote one reviewer of Tetlock’s work. Not so for a powerful new method of forecasting called “text mining”. It draws on the vast amount of data available online. By sampling the sentiments expressed in the torrent of blog posts, tweets and Facebook updates, you can gain unprecedented insights into the mood of the world and use it to predict what is to come.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
The dark side
Progress thrives on openness, and openness almost by definition means exposure. The Internet, for example, has brought critical dangers even as it has unleashed a business and social miracle. Everyday acts, such as connecting your phone to your car via Bluetooth, create vulnerabilities most of us do not yet consciously consider. The costs of fighting cyberthreats are rising into the trillions. Meanwhile, rogue states continue to frustrate the global community, and the strains from combating terrorism are reverberating worldwide. The number of terrorist incidents and casualties remains relatively small but has been rising; global terrorism death levels by the end of 2015 were more than five times higher than they were in 2001.
2017
The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
McKinsey
The Darker Side of New Technologies: How A New Global Security Order Has Arrived
Understanding the impact of new technologies on global security has never been more urgent – but responses are falling behind and there is no framework on the table to get back on track.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The dawn of the coded brand
Brands will hardwire behaviors into their actual coding in unprecedented ways. This will offer customers a consistent experience no matter when or where they meet a brand.
2018
Trend watch 2018: the next five
Landor