Trends Identified

The death of ageing

The rich and powerful have long dreamt of the death of ageing, if not of outright immortality. There is now serious money in it. Anti-ageing startup Unity Biotechnology raised US$116 million in 2016 from Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel and others to further its research in rejuvenation therapy and prevention of senescence (that is, wear and tear with age). Google-backed biotechnology company Calico and biopharmaceutical company AbbVie invested US$250 million each in 2014 to jointly develop drugs targeting diseases associated with old age.

2017

Foresigth

Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures

The Death of Trade

Bilateral trade wars cascade and multilateral dispute resolution institutions are too weak to respond

2018

The Global Risks Report 2018

World Economic Forum (WEF)

The disruptive decade

The global economic outlook is certainly enough to test even the strongest enterprises. The eurozone is still mired in recession and the US economy is forecast to expand by just 2.2% this year.1The situation in some of the growth markets is also getting harder, as the slowdown in the BRIC economies demonstrates. While market conditions in many countries are still very difficult, CEOs are more positive about the prognosis than they were last year: 52% think the global economy will stay the same for the next 12 months and only 28% believe it will shrink. In 2012, by contrast, 48% were convinced the global economy would contract.But economic plateaux aren’t exactly grounds for cheer. That’s why short-term confidence about the prospects for revenue growth has continued falling (see Figure 1). CEOs in Western Europe are especially nervous. Only 22% feel very confident they can increase their company’s revenues in the coming 12 months, compared with 53% of CEOs in the Middle East and Latin America.

2013

16th Annual global CEO Survey

PWC

The economic outlook

The economy and the future economic setting remain perhaps the most critical factor in determining to a large extent which family and household groups are affected, and how. Long-term stable growth, ample employment opportunities, sound public finances, etc. will clearly affect family/household outcomes differently to a long-term unstable economy with high structural unemployment and poor public finances. In either case, some households and families will thrive, while others will see their vulnerability grow. Policy can mitigate such inequalities and ease the situation especially of those who are the most in need. But just as the future economic setting will affect families/households dif- ferently, so it will also affect the scope and resources available for policy action.

2011

The Future of Families to 2030

OECD

The economy at a crossroads

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy has endured a long period of slow growth. Although there are many signs of recovery, and there has been significant growth in countries such as the USA and Germany, there are many reasons why this growth is vulnerable. Its vulnerability is related to features such as the poor growth of productivity in the West, an ageing population, uncertain prospects in China and the price of oil, which can easily affect the global economy. Even more importantly, the unsustainable use of natural resources and carbon dioxide emissions now enforce much stricter parameters for growth than in the past. Discussions on economics have often raised the question of why growth is an aspiration. Increasing attention has been paid to the fact that the economy should above all be a means to achieve other ends, such as the experience of well-being.

2017

Megatrends 2017

Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra

The economy will slow down...

Economists are split on when exactly, but they know one thing for sure: a downturn is coming. “There is a confluence of deep-seated, structural headwinds that threaten to upend the global economy,” warns economist Dambisa Moyo, among them growing inequality, a workforce ill-adapted to rapid technological change, political instability and a massive debt burden on governments, corporations and individuals. “The U.S. has historically been the leader, and the U.S. is probably going to slow down this year,” adds CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger. China is already cooling. “World growth is much more likely to slow down in 2019, and it really looks like 2020 could be the year of a global recession,” she predicts.

2018

50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead

LinkedIn

The Elephant in the Room: the Many Dimensions of Inequality in Europe

The gap between rich and poor has widened. Austerity programmes enacted by a series of EU governments since 2009, with the aim of reducing budget deficits, have had a disproportionate effect on those with lower incomes and exacerbated income differences. 1 in 4 Europeans are estimated to be at risk of poverty and social exclusion in the EU. Recent publications (e.g. Branko Milanovic’s Elephant chart) suggest that lower middle classes in rich countries have been one of the most prominent losers of globalisation in the past couple of decades. And they fuel expectations that inequality will further increase in years to come.

2016

Shaping the future

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

The end of an era for plastics

Packaging is set to be key battleground in addressing the environmental impacts of business on oceans, land and air.

2018

8 sustainability trends that will define 2018

Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership

The end of gender generalization

Historically, when companies designed products, the first decision they would make was whether the brand was intended for men or for women. As gender becomes more open, inclusive, and nuanced, the overarching traditional gender decision is no longer the best starting point for brand personality. Gender roles will continue to blur and gender will often not be a helpful categorization for many brands.

2019

The top trends for brands to watch in 2019

Landor

The end of privacy

Sensors and the artificial intelligence to use and interpret the information gathered by them will become cheaper, better and faster over the next 15 years. Advances in location sensing gives an indication of the trend. Recently, Google announced the goal to have smart phones in 2015 with positional accuracy within 10 centimetres, with sufficient resolution to notice you sitting up from your desk, taking a call or snuggling up to a partner. By 2028, a package that performs like today’s smart phones could cost as little as $2 to produce. At that price, sensing will be nearly ubiquitous. Most people will carry one or several tools that measure ambient audio, location and air quality. Service providers and developers will be watching and listening to understand what’s going on, what’s around us and where we are, all to feed the helper applications that will support us in our daily lives. One’s identity will be increasingly knowable as well. Today, digital chips track our identity and purchasing histories; in the future, face recognition, and gait and gesture recognition will help identify those not digitally broadcasting their presence to the world. Will our current rules and norms about privacy hold up in the face of improved sensing? Is privacy the right to be left alone, or is it the right to prevent others from knowing anything about you?

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada