Trends Identified
The end of public anonymity
Constant monitoring and surveillance will become increasingly prevalent through the use of nano and biosensors, brain-computer interfaces, and artificial intelligence (AI). Smart devices will routinely know a person’s movements and location to within 10 centimetres, which will make it possible to infer a person’s activity, behaviour, interactions and relationships. This will make it increasingly difficult for individuals to go unnoticed, as AI can identify people from face and gait, and even determine the behaviour pa erns of those without smart devices by looking at those who do. These devices will increasingly be used to identify, authenticate and track the movement of food, goods and materials in value chains. Constant monitoring and surveillance could also enhance public health and environmental and personal security. For example, in emergency situations, sensors, AI and machine-to-machine communication could make it easier to locate people and identify their needs. As privacy becomes a major issue, there may be a need to rethink the balance between public and private interests and liberties.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of scarcity
The world said humans were not meant to fly. Hundreds of years of human invention had been unable to make it work. But in a small bicycle-repair shop, two brothers with no government funding and only a basic education had a vision, and a will to invent. And in 1903, thanks to the determination of these two unsuspecting inventors, humans flew. The distance of the first human flight was 120 ft. Years later, one of the inventors of that breakthrough would marvel that the wingspan of modern airplanes was longer than the entire distance his first plane had flown. The potential of technology is limited only by our imagination, and our will. Abundance of water, food, clean air … peace: the end of scarcity in the supply of our basic needs is possible. Perhaps not by 2020, but it starts with the dream, the determination to turn dreams into reality, and the understanding of this truth, so well embodied in the invention and rapid evolution of human flight: that all things are possible.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The End of the “Death of ERP”
Rumors of ERP’s death have been greatly exaggerated Every few years we see headlines with proclamations of ERP’s imminent demise. Similar to the long-rumored “death of COBOL,” the noise could continue for decades. Part of the problem starts with the name ERP itself. In the current world, the more proper description is probably Enterprise Applications. Enterprise resource planning harkens to a time when integrated financials and payroll were first being linked to production planning and inventory controls. Over the years, however, the impact of enterprise application players like SAP and Oracle has grown substantially, well beyond automating core back-office processes. This growth was achieved first by tackling the front-office functions like customer service, sales and procurement; then by adding workflow and reporting; and finally by refactoring platforms for better integration. Throughout this evolution, the underlying problem has remained the same: allowing large, complicated organizations to profit from standardized business processes and standardized data.
2011
Tech Trends 2011 The natural convergence of business and IT
Deloitte
The end of the 19th-century grid
One of the biggest changes we will see (or at least have made substantial progress towards) by 2020 is global electrification. In the US and Europe, most people take electricity for granted. But that is not the case in many parts of Latin America, Africa and Asia. More than 1.3 billion people still aren’t connected to the grid. More than 1.5 billion still don’t have regular access to electric light: they use oil lamps, which are a safety hazard. Even where the grid exists, it’s fragile: power blackouts are a major problem in many megacities. Power theft also plagues Brazil, India and South Africa. Safe, reliable power will have a transformative effect on these countries. Not only will there be near-term benefits such as greater productivity, but we will see long-term quantum leaps in educational achievement, healthcare and quality of life. These communities don’t have power now because our 19th-century grid is too expensive. The advent of new technologies is changing both the business models and use-case scenarios to make it possible. In a few years, the world will finally, truly, be wired.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The end of the fossil era has begun
The successful global progress of renewable energies, the signal sent by the G7 states from Schloss Elmau in June 2015, the discussion started after the climate protection pledge in the USA and China on an effective global climate regime plus the decreasing use of coal in China and the USA and a spectacular drop in the price of oil since 2014 all lead to the question of whether the beginning of the end of the fossil age has already begun. Besides the reality of climate change, the drivers of this development are the increasingly volatile energy prices, particularly the above-mentioned drop in the price of oil, and a growing global awareness of the health effects of fossil energy generation, leading to growing regional protests.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The End of Typing
ComScore says that 50% of searches will be done by voice by 2020. Gartner believes that by 2020, 30% of searches won’t involve a screen at all. At present, Google says that 20% of searches in the U.S. on Android devices are done by voice. In the UK, Deloitte found that 36% of smartphone owners are aware of voice search and 11% use it regularly. 60% of people using voice have started in the last year, according to Mindmeld. Voice searches are three times more likely to focus on a local topic than a text search. And people are shifting to voice for the obvious reason: It’s easier and more efficient than typing.
2018
Key digital trends for 2018
Ogilvy
The energy future has already begun
The energy transition is a global reality. Photovoltaics and wind energy in particular have developed within a few years into new key energies for the 21st century. In 2013 more renewable energy power plants in terms of power generation capacity were set up worldwide than coal, gas and nuclear power plants put together. In terms of investment, the renewables sector is now significantly ahead of traditional energy technologies.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is decentralised
Energy generation from wind and sun but also from other renewable energy sources is decentralised. Instead of a few large power plants, in the energy system of the future millions of small plants will generate energy. Many of the stakeholders involved are both producers and consumers of power (prosumers). However, this does not mean that only small power plants will be left. The large systems and plants based on wind and solar power will probably retain their position in the new energy system. But in many poorer regions of the world which have an abundant supply of sun and wind, members of the public as prosumers could bene t long-term from decentralised renewable energy systems.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is digital
Energy system of the future characterised by volatile wind and solar renewable energies. The IT and energy sectors are growing together. Only a combination of both will be able to reliably match the energy supply and demand at all times. The rapid cost degression in the storage technology, particularly for small and large battery banks, opens up the possibility of reliable energy supply at any time, finally even with a 100 per cent transfer to renewable energies.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is renewable
The global progress of renewable energies is primarily a result of the almost unbelievable success in reducing the costs. Wind energy plants on land are still the most cost-effective technology for renewable power generation. But in Germany the costs for solar power have dropped by 80 per cent since 2005. Increasing numbers of economy and financial experts are basing their analyses on photovoltaics now becoming the most cost-effective technology for electricity generation in ever more regions of the world. Electricity from the sun and wind will expand its triumphal progress beyond the power sector into the areas of mobility and heating.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany