Trends Identified
The global marketplace
The landscape of trade in goods and services has fundamentally changed since the Second World War, as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) shepherded in a more open and connected global economy. Today there are nearly 160 members of GATT’s successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). From 1950– 2007 trade grew by an average of 6.2 percent per year.52 In 2011 the total value of world merchandise trade was estimated at USD$18.2 trillion.53 Developing countries achieved a share of over 50 percent of global trade in 2012.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The global middle class will grow
The dramatic change in the global economic landscape will be both a cause and a consequence of the emergence of a new Global Middle and Rich class (GMR).4 At present, about a quarter of the global GMR population resides in developing countries. By 2030, the GMR population in developing countries will have overtaken that in advanced countries, and in 2060 about 60 percent of the world’s GMR population will reside in developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The global population is aging
It is expected that by 2050, 22% of the world’s population (about two billion people) will be aged over 65 years.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
The global rebalancing act
CEOs are coming out of survival mode, but the search for growth is getting increasingly complicated as the global economy gradually rebalances itself. In 2012, the advanced economies were spluttering, while the emerging economies sizzled. In 2013, the picture became more nuanced. The advanced economies are mending, while some emerging economies are slowing down – and separating out in the process. By the third quarter of 2013, the US economy was already 4% bigger than it was in 2007, before the financial crisis was in full swing. The Japanese economy had also recovered all the ground it lost, although a listless performance in the second half of 2013 dented hopes that the eurozone had done likewise (see Figure 2). While the advanced economies are recovering, some of the emerging economies have been decelerating. The prospect of a shift in monetary policy in the US (which materialised in December 2013) and other advanced economies triggered substantial capital outflows from some emerging countries. These macroeconomic changes have revived interest in a number of the mature markets and exposed the weak spots in some of the emerging economies, as well as the extent to which they’re diverging.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The great leveller?
New information technologies are reaching the world’s poor much faster than food and toilets. A recent UN report suggested six billion people have access to mobile phones, while only 4.5 billion have access to working toilets. Technology offers great potential to enhance education opportunities, dramatically improve health outcomes, promote free speech and democracy, and offer greater access to global markets. The Internet is the key driver of global connectivity and opportunity, but different bandwidth speeds, limited access, and contrasting levels of openness can mean that
the Internet exacerbates rather than offsets inequality.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The great rebalancing
The coming decade will be the first in 200 years when emerging-market countries contribute more growth than the developed ones. This growth will not only create a wave of new middle-class consumers but also drive profound innovations in product design, market infrastructure, and value chains.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The high street will band together.
The story is repeating itself in every country: From the famed big box stores of America to the high street chains of the U.K., physical retailers buckle as they face deep-pocketed online disruptors. “Things have never been more competitive,” says entrepreneur Naomi Simson, CEO of the Big Red Group in Australia, where Amazon launched with fanfare just a year ago. But smaller players are starting to band together to stand up to the giants, she says. “It might be through buying groups, marketplaces, associations, movements such as ‘buy local’... There will also be M&A,” she predicts. “The difference now is mindset. Business owners used to think the shop next door was competition. Now they know that there is safety in numbers.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The Human Cell Atlas
An international collaboration aimed at deciphering the human body, called the Human Cell Atlas, was launched in October 2016. The project, backed by the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative aims to identify every cell type in every tissue; learn exactly which genes, proteins and other molecules are active in each type and the processes which control that activity; determine where the cells are located exactly; how the cells normally interact with one another, and what happens to the body’s functioning when genetic or other aspects of a cell undergo change, among other things. The end product will be an invaluable tool for improving and personalizing health care.
2017
These are the top 10 emerging technologies of 2017
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The human cloud in the future of work
While the risk of job displacement due to advances in artificial intelligence and robotics preoccupies many commentators, another pressing problem deserves attention: the mismatch between workers’ skills and available work. If only employers and workers could connect across the barrier of geographical distance, perhaps this mismatch could ease. Could the “human cloud”—a global pool of skilled workers working remotely for employers and clients—be a solution?
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
The immigrant share of the U.S. population is approaching a record high but remains below that of many other countries.
The 44 million foreign-born people living in the U.S. in 2017 accounted for 13.6% of the population, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the American Community Survey. That is the highest share since 1910, when immigrants were 14.7% of the total population. The record share was in 1890, when immigrants were 14.8% of the total. According to United Nations data, 25 nations and territories have higher shares of immigrants than the U.S. They include some Persian Gulf nations with high shares of temporary labor migrants, as well as Australia (29%), New Zealand (23%) and Canada (21%). The role of the U.S. in accepting refugees has diminished, according to an analysis of data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The number of refugees resettled in the U.S. – 33,000 in 2017 – decreased more than in any other country over the previous year. The same year also marked the first time since the adoption of the 1980 U.S. Refugee Act that the U.S. resettled fewer refugees than all other countries combined (69,000).In most top destination countries for migrants, majorities of people say immigrants strengthen their countries rather than burden them, according to a 2018 Pew Research Center survey of 18 countries that host half of the world’s migrants. Immigrants were viewed positively in 10 of those nations, including the U.S., Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Canada and Australia. Majorities in five countries viewed immigrants as a burden: Hungary, Greece, South Africa, Russia and Israel.
2019
6 demographic trends shaping the U.S. and the world in 2019
Pew Research Center