Trends Identified
The Future of Security and Preparing for It: Why the Security Union is Needed
Terrorism and organised crime threatens our values and our way of life. Neither respects national borders. Indeed their business models thrive on the lack of coordination between states. The only way to defeat the terrorists and criminals is by working together effectively. In today’s world, security of one Member State is the security of all. National security remains the sole responsibility of Member States, but they cannot effectively address alone threats which are transnational.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Transportation
Transportation is humanity’s greatest lever for economic growth. More than any other technology, transport is the catalyst for big leaps in culture and ideas. And transport has itself been the engine for growth on a global scale. The Great Acceleration of the Rail Age enabled the transport of produce and people in volume, which in turn enabled urbanisation and the development of the mass market. Powered by coal, constructed of iron and steel, and financed on new capital markets, the railways themselves became a primary driver of the Industrial Revolution. That was then, this is now. The great question facing global leaders is whether our current transportation options can meet the inexorable and conflicting demands of growth and environmental stewardship. At current 2.7% annual rates of growth, mobility demand in the developed world will double in 25 years and rise sixteen- fold in a century. Existing modes have served us well, but offer only incremental improvements when a step- change in performance and energy efficiency is required.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Universities and Evidence-Based Research
Among the European Union’s best assets are its highly- educated population, its universities, and its research capacity. Europe’s universities have, through the course of their rich history contributed hugely to modern thought and to modern science. They have helped shape the world that we know today. Past glories will not sustain us forever. Universities need to change in order to serve the needs of tomorrow’s economy and society. This is not in debate. There is a need for more skills - and more research- in science and technology, for example. Universities will continue to have a central role in the drive for technological innovation.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Work
The world of work is changing rapidly. Several ongoing mega-trends – including globalisation, digitalisation and demographic changes – coupled with rapid change in values and preferences regarding work, have the potential of significantly affecting the quantity and types of jobs in our economies, as well as how and by whom they will be carried out.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The future of work
Americans believe automation will likely disrupt a number of professions, but fewer foresee their own jobs being at risk.
2017
Key trends shaping technology in 2017
Pew Research Center
The Future of Work, Technology, Income Gaps and the Role of Governments
The future of work and technology and increasing income gaps are among the most discussed topics of long-term prospects at the moment. However, systemic perspectives and global as well as local strategies to improve the long-term outlook are often lacking. Government long- term and large-scale strategies are needed to address the potential scope and spectrum of unemployment and income gaps in the foreseeable future due to the acceleration, globalisation, and integration of technological capacities and population growth.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The gender gap in labour force participation remains large
The much lower labour force participation rate of women, which stood at 48 per cent in 2018, com-pared with 75 per cent for men, means that around three in five of the 3.5 billion people in the global labour force in 2018 were men. After a period of rapid improvement that lasted until 2003, subsequent progress on closing the gender gap in participation rates has stalled. The sizeable gap of 27 percentage points registered in 2018 should motivate policy action aimed at both improving gender equality in global labour markets and maximizing human capabilities. Overall, labour force participation rates among adults have been declining for the past 25 years; the decline is even more pronounced among young people aged 15–24. This downward trend is projected to continue in the future. Some of the factors behind it – such as increased educational enrolment, greater retirement opportunities and higher life expectancy – are of course positive. Yet, the rise in the dependency ratio (i.e. the proportion of economically inactive people relative to the active) poses new challenges in terms of the organization of work and the distribution of resources in society.
2019
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
The glass half-full
CEOs are more positive about the state of the global economy than they were last year. Twice as many think it will improve over the next 12 months (see Figure 1). Conversely, just 7% think it will deteriorate, compared with 28% in 2013. But there are marked regional differences in sentiment. Only a quarter of CEOs in Central and Eastern Europe believe the global economy is recovering, versus half of all CEOs in Western Europe and the Middle East. The optimism some CEOs display may therefore stem from relief that certain risks (such as the collapse of the eurozone) have been averted for now, rather than the conviction that things are really getting better. Moreover, CEOs are still cautious about whether greater global growth will translate into growth for their own companies. They’re slightly more hopeful about the short-term outlook (see Figure 1), but just as wary about opportunities over the next three years as they were 12 months ago.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The global economy is shifting.
Weak economic growth will persist in the near term. Major economies will confront shrinking workforces and diminishing productivity gains while recovering from the 2008-09 financial crisis with high debt, weak demand, and doubts about globalization. China will attempt to shift to a consumer-driven economy from its longstanding export and investment focus. Lower growth will threaten poverty reduction in developing countries.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
The global grid
The global economy is growing ever more connected. Complex flows of capital, goods, information, and people are creating an interlinked network that spans geographies, social groups, and economies in ways that permit large-scale interactions at any moment. This expanding grid is seeding new business models and accelerating the pace of innovation. It also makes destabilizing cycles of volatility more likely.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey