Trends Identified
Decreasing Defence Expenditures
Governments faced with slow or non-existent growth, rising unemployment and increasing debt burdens will continue to have many competing priorities. Continuing volatility in financial markets might further slow global as well as national economic activity. Defence spending has continued to decline across the Alliance due to reduced economic growth, and the increasing emphasis on social programmes. There is a risk that, even if economic cycles turn more positive, public opinion may prevent some nations from reinvesting in defence. This will have a marked negative impact on defence capabilities in the future. The consequences of current and anticipated near-term reductions in Science and Technology (S&T) investment will have implications on longer-term force capabilities. These deficits could be offset by new, less expensive, and yet-to-be-developed technologies.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Decrypting Crypto-Consumers
On October 31th, 2008, the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto published the paper Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, which would lay the groundwork for the world’s most talked about and prominent novel currency project since the creation of the euro some twenty years ago. Growing from a little-known cryptography mailing list, a discreetly registered domain, and a dedicated forum set up by its founder, Bitcoin soon inspired a huge growth in traders, platform and brokers, trade media, fans churning out memes, as well as commercial endeavors from cash brokers to exchanges, pubs to candy stores. This rapid expansion also meant that the user and consumer base has been difficult to track and segment. The crypto landscape is awash with data, but consumer data has been more difficult to come by for a variety of reasons. At first the audience was very small, and few cryptocurrency holders would be caught in the dragnet of national surveys – some of which were still based on calling landlines when Bitcoin was launched – and others relied on data volunteered by community members based on straw polls and student surveys. Self-selection also favored outspoken crypto activists, rather than silent investors. It’s the latter group our research has been able to capture. By including cryptocurrency into our global internet user survey, we’ve been able to expand the dragnet to almost 90,000 respondents – and picked up cryptocurrency holders in the course of general fieldwork, without targeting them. This means we have a sample of cryptocurrency holders with more than 25,000 data points against them, which has also served as a benchmark for our subsequent targeted poll.
2019
Trends 19
GlobalWebIndex
Deep learning accelerators
Deep learning accelerators such as GPUs, FPGAs, and more recently TPUs. More companies have been announcing plans to design their own accelerators, which are widely used in data centers. There is also an opportunity to deploy them at the edge, initially for inference and for limited training over time. This also includes accelerators for very low power devices. The development of these technologies will allow machine learning (or smart devices) to be used in many IoT devices and appliances.
2018
IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech: Top 10 Technology Trends for 2019
IEEE Computer Society
Deep learning for visual tasks
Computers are beginning to recognize images better than humans. Thanks to deep learning, an emerging field of artificial intelligence, computer-vision technologies are increasingly being used in applications as diverse as driving autonomous vehicles, medical diagnostics, damage assessment for insurance claims and monitoring of water levels and crop yield.
2017
These are the top 10 emerging technologies of 2017
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Deep ocean windfarms
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Statoil (Norway), Siemens (Germany), Volturn (US), UMaine (US)
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Deep space travel
U.S. President Obama has indicated that the USA, and mandated NASA, to send a human mission to Mars by mid-2030 with intermediary steps to Lagragian points in 2020s. NASA is consequently developing appropriate capabilities with the SLS launcher and the Orion crew capsule that should be ready by early 2020s. This would allow human to ventures farther into deep space compared to previous endeavours in the last century.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Deepening digital divide in Australia
Internet penetration and the increasing speed of technological progress add other perspectives to the inequality problem; namely, digital divide and digital inclusiveness.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Deepening environmental risk
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Aggravated Food Crisis, Energy Imbalance, Water Deterioration Crisis, Increase in Natural Disasters. Deepening ecosystem destruction.
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Deepening income inequality
Inequality is one of the key
challenges of our time. Income inequality specifically is one of the most visible aspects of a broader
and more complex issue, one that entails inequality of opportunity
and extends to gender, ethnicity, disability, and age, among others. Ranking second in last year’s
Outlook, it was identified as the
most signi cant trend of 2015 by
our Network’s experts. This affects
all countries around the world. In developed and developing countries alike, the poorest half of the population often controls less than 10% of its wealth. This is a universal challenge that the whole world must address.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Defence and Security
The decline in the incidence of inter- state war and the emergence of transnational threats, especially in the developed world, has resulted in greater political emphasis being placed on security rather than defence. Moreover, security has gradually evolved from the concepts of national and international security to the idea of human security.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence