Trends Identified
Defence expenditures challenges in the West
A majority of NATO nations were able to change a decreasing defence spending trend into an increase in real terms 2016. political and national will would be required to sustain defence expenditures in competing priorities with limited budgets.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Defining the role of business leaders in society: A business imperative
Ask a classically trained financial economist about the role of the company in society and the response is likely to be to maximise shareholder returns. The 10th Annual Global CEO Survey reinforces a growing recognition among academics and practitioners alike that this traditional view of the long-term objective of a company is too narrow; that to sustain long-term financial growth, management need to balance the needs of the shareholder against those of other stakeholders – most notably the employee and society.
2007
10th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Delayed Demographic Transition
Compared with other parts of the developing world, Africa’s demographic transition is delayed and highly variable across countries. Africa’s population is projected to peak at 2.7 billion in 2060, compared to 1.0 billion in 2010 (Figure 12). The projections show the population growth rate declining, following a similar trajectory to other major global areas.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Delivery robots and passenger drones
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Wing/Alphabet (US), Starship Technologies (UK), Volocopter (Germany), eHang (China), Piaggio (Italy).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Demand for Customization
Control is shifting away from the manufacturer, giving the consumer a greater say in what, when, and how they receive their goods and services (e.g., customized goods, precision medicine) due to the interaction between Web 2.0 and advanced manufacturing trends.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Demand for higher education is growing, along with the costs
Australia’s highly educated workforce used to be an area of relative strength. However, it is now competing with the rapid rise in global education and computer adoption. The number of students enrolled in higher education in Australia is growing: from more than 984 000 students in 2006 to almost 1 410 000 in 2015.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Dematerialization
Dematerialization the shift in the value structure from physical to intellectual. Knowledge society: The emergence of a knowledge society is fundamentally transforming the way we create and capture value in today’s world. Rather than land, labor, or financial assets, intellectual property and human capital have risen in importance, creating huge implications for the way we employ, educate, and communicate. For example, the rise of knowledge societies is partially driven by the proliferation of digital technology, which creates rapid exchange of information relative to the “old world.” Digitalization: As the digital world rises in prominence, consumers find themselves at a fork in the road facing both analog and digital options. For example, telecommunications providers still offer landline connections, but consumers choose smartphones and wireless connectivity, seeing minimal value in the additional cost. Scientification of agriculture: As advances in biotechnology and nanotechnology grow, the future of agriculture is evolving. Genomics are rising in importance as agricultural companies begin to invest heavily in R&D efforts to replicate a crop’s DNA sequence, selectively breed animals through genetic engineering, or use stem cells to produce meat-based products. The Internet of Things also offers significant opportunity as sensor-based technologies become more common — a breakthrough that supports “precision agriculture”. Post-industrialism: While the world was once pre-occupied with an Industrial Revolution and emphasis on a manufacturing-based economy, our world is now characterized by the rise of a service economy. In post-industrial societies, the production of goods has given way to the production of services; knowledge becomes a form of capital (e.g., the emergence of a knowledge society), and information and ideas are commoditized. Shifting power bases: As the world shifts away from an emphasis on physical strength and towards digital prowess, strength is becoming synonymous with countries which display greater technological infrastructure and capabilities. This is in contrast to the days when power was exhibited by those with a strong militia, defense systems, and weaponry.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Democracy fatigued
In the West, the disintegration, or even a crisis, of democracy has been discussed for years. Turnout percentages and party memberships have steadily decreased. However, awareness of the crisis in discussions has not led to activities to reinforce democracy. Not even the financial crisis or the rise of populism have brought reforms. The game only changed in 2016. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, the subversive election struggle in the United States and Donald Trump’s presidency, which defied all familiar political models, have encapsulated many of the problems with democracy that must be solved promptly. In order for democracy to work, it must be reinforced, new methods of operation must be found and there must be greater inclusion.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa in 2030
The two most important events affecting the evolution of democracy in the region in the last two decades were the US Global War on Terror, especially the Iraq War, and the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Both led to major transformations in the region, which is now in turmoil: violent repression of legitimate protest and regional antagonisms have led to civil wars with over 15 million refugees; the securitisation of domestic politics, whereby ‘normal’ policy issues are treated as security threats, has put a stop to reform movements; and the low oil price and economic stagnation have further destabilised the region.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Democratic governability
Democratic governability, impact of new technologies
in connecting citizens, forging social relations, improving transparency, strengthening security, and providing opportunities for organized crime and cyber-attacks.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue