Trends Identified
Demographic shifts
The global population could reach 9.6 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. In 2000, for the first time, there were more people over the age of 60 in the world than children under five. By 2050, four-fifths of older people will live in developing countries, where 80% of them will have no regular income. Youth unemployment is also growing. In 2012, 15- to 24-year-olds made up 40% of the total unemployed population.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Demographic shifts
With a few regional exceptions the world’s population is ageing, putting pressure on business, social institutions and economies. Our longer life span will affect business models talent ambitions, and pension costs. Older workers will need to learn new skills and work for longer. ‘Re‐tooling’ will become the norm. The shortage of a human workforce in a number of rapidly‐ageing economies will drive the need for automation and productivity enhancements.
2017
Workforce of the future The competing forces shaping 2030
PWC
Demographic shifts transform the global workforce
Never before has demographic change happened so quickly. Global employers face the challenge that, despite a growing global population, they will soon have to recruit from a shrinking workforce due to an aging population.
2011
Tracking global trends - How six key developments are shaping the business world
EY
Demographics
Higher life expectancy and falling birth rates are increasing the proportion of elderly people across the world, challenging the solvency of social welfare systems, including pensions and healthcare. Some regions are also facing the challenge of integrating large youth populations into saturated labor markets.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Demographics
Over the next century, changes in the world’s demography – the characteristics and composition of the global population – are likely to be dramatic. This is not just about gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan, distribution and activities of people. The world’s population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around 7 billion today, and is projected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by 2050. Over 60 percent of the global population is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Demographics and low cost labor, long a driver of economic growth in emerging markets, may play a smaller role in an automated world.
Demographics and low cost labor, long a driver of economic growth in emerging markets, may play a smaller role in an automated world. Countries that have high population growth in an industrial landscape dominated by technologies like AI and robotics could be at a disadvantage. Consider emphasizing countries making investments in the future competiveness of their workforces.
2018
Eight long-term trends for growth investors
Morgan Stanley
Demography
The population in developing regions is projected to increase from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050 whilst the population of developed regions will remain around 1.3 billion people;
2015
SDG industry matrix
KPMG
Demography
The figures for global population growth over the next 20 years can be predicted with some confidence. This overall growth will be combined with a changing spatial and age distribution that will differ across regions. The impacts of migration are less clear than population growth but the overall move from rural to urban areas, especially in developing countries, is a well established trend.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Demography
The world population will continue to grow in the 21st century and is expected to nudge the 10 billion mark by mid-century. Africa will account for more than half of this growth, which will generate significant youth bulges. Elsewhere, including in many developing countries, populations will significantly age, and those over 80 will account for around 10% of the world’s population by 2050, up from 4% in 2010. With a declining share of the population in work, ageing countries will face an uphill battle to maintain their living standards. International migration from countries with younger populations could offset this decline. At the same time, technologies that enhance physical and cognitive capacities could allow older people to work longer, while growing automation could reduce the demand for labour.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Deregulation—rhetoric or reality?
Custom solutions will prevail in a reimagined global landscape.
2018
Top Policy Trends of 2018
PWC