Trends Identified
Food and Water
By 2040, the global population is likely to increase to 8.8 billion requiring concomitant increases in the supply of food and water. Given that agriculture accounts for over 70% of global freshwater usage, the availability of food and water will be intimately related.181 Over 900 million people were undernourished in 2007. This represents a declining proportion of the global population, but in absolute terms is 80 million more than in 1990– 92, with the largest increases in Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa.182 Similarly, it is estimated that around 2.5 billion people live in regions suffering from water scarcity, predominantly in Africa, the Middle East, as well as Central and East Asia. Of these almost 900 million lack access to safe drinking water causing more than 5 million deaths per year. Fertiliser production is an energy intensive process, and the challenge, with a heavy reliance on science and technology, will be to produce more food on less land with less water, fertiliser and pesticides, while using less energy.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Food by design
Can innovation align delicious with sustainable, affordable and healthy? The US$5 trillion global food industry is experiencing the cross-currents of disruption. Food companies deliver mass products from far-flung supply chains even as consumers demand local, transparently sourced, personalized foods. Agriculture generates 24% of greenhouse gases, consumes 70% of fresh water† and occupies nearly 40%‡ of the global landmass. Climate change and population growth render this kind of resource consumption increasingly untenable. The diffusion of the modern western diet contributes to a variety of global health problems, such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes. More people now suffer from obesity§ than from malnutrition. Innovations at the intersections of food, biotech, wellness and digital are emerging from these cross-currents to design new ways to eat.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
Food: 'Russia will become a global food superpower'
When experts talk about the coming food security crisis, the date they fixate upon is 2030. By then, our numbers will be nudging 9 billion and we will need to be producing 50% more food than we are now. By the middle of that decade, therefore, we will either all be starving, and fighting wars over resources, or our global food supply will have changed radically. The bitter reality is that it will probably be a mixture of both. Developed countries such as the UK are likely, for the most part, to have attempted to pull up the drawbridge, increasing national production and reducing our reliance on imports. In response to increasing prices, some of us may well have reduced our consumption of meat, the raising of which is a notoriously inefficient use of grain. This will probably create a food underclass, surviving on a carb- and fat-heavy diet, while those with money scarf the protein. The developing world, meanwhile, will work to bridge the food gap by embracing the promise of biotechnology which the middle classes in the developed world will have assumed that they had the luxury to reject. In truth, any of the imported grain that we do consume will come from genetically modified crops. As climate change lays waste to the productive fields of southern Europe and north Africa, more water-efficient strains of corn, wheat and barley will be pressed into service; likewise, to the north, Russia will become a global food superpower as the same climate change opens up the once frozen and massive Siberian prairie to food production. The consensus now is that the planet does have the wherewithal to feed that huge number of people. It's just that some people in the west may find the methods used to do so unappetising.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
For most, population as a source of growth will need to be replaced
Most of Europe and East Asia, by contrast, is expected to see labour-force declines, representing a severe drag on growth. Japan will see the greatest decline of over one-quarter, from 66m to 47m; China and South Korea are also expected to experience a 17-18% contraction in their labour forces.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
For respite, we will turn to inspirational commerce.
In an anxious world, we’re going to need more than a juice cleanse to take care of our exhausted psyches, writes Gina Bianchini, CEO of Mighty Networks. Health and wellness influencers, exhausted themselves, are shifting their models to building supportive communities and connecting their fans to each other, rather than amassing a large number of one-way followers — communities they can monetize through memberships or events. Bianchini writes: "While the first generation of e-commerce was about selling physical products online, this coming wave of 'inspirational commerce' is about creating opportunities for people to buy experiences and connections to realize their full potential.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Force fields
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Dstl (UK), Boeing (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Forever young
The ageing population
is an asset. Australia and many other countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have an ageing population. Elderly citizens provide a wealth of skills, knowledge, wisdom and mentorship. Nevertheless, there are some challenges associated with an ageing population and associated demographic trends. Two of these challenges include Australia’s widening retirement savings gap and rapidly escalating healthcare expenditure.
This will change people’s lifestyles, the services
they demand and the structure and function
of the labour market.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Fostering a global workforce in dynamic times
2010
Business Redefined - A look at the global trends that are changing the world of business
EY
Fourth generation mobile communications (4G)
Fourth generation mobile communications (4G) are widely accepted as promising technologies which make it possible to transfer data at speeds in excess of 100 Mbit/s for mobile and 1 Gbit/s for fixed subscribers. The introduction of such networks has already started and in the near future there is expected to be widespread dissemination of 4G communications on a global scale and associated development of new forms of content services and business models.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fourth-generation reactors and nuclear-waste recycling
Current once-through nuclear power reactors use only 1% of the potential energy available in uranium, leaving the rest radioactively contaminated as nuclear “waste”. While the technical challenge of geological disposal is manageable, the political challenge of nuclear waste seriously limits the appeal of this zero-carbon and highly scalable energy technology. Spent-fuel recycling and breeding uranium-238 into new fissile material – known as Nuclear 2.0 – would extend already-mined uranium resources for centuries while dramatically reducing the volume and long-term toxicity of wastes, whose radioactivity will drop below the level of the original uranium ore on a timescale of centuries rather millennia. This makes geological disposal much less of a challenge (and arguably even unnecessary) and nuclear waste a minor environmental issue compared to hazardous wastes produced by other industries. Fourth-generation technologies, including liquid metal-cooled fast reactors, are now being deployed in several countries and are offered by established nuclear engineering companies.
2013
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2013
World Economic Forum (WEF)