Trends Identified
Fourth-generation system development
From the mainframe era, through client-server, and into the era of the desktop, the history of computing has been shaped by new capabilities (new hardware, new algorithms, new ways of doing things) that in turn stimulate new kinds of demands. Simply giving the 1980s-era personal computer a network connection, for example, turned out to have far-reaching effects on how enterprise systems were designed, built and used. In this decade, a wave of new capabilities will push system architecture into unexplored territory, ushering in a fourth generation of system-building. The forces propelling this new era are, as always, both technological and economic. The technologies range from parallel chip architectures to multi-tenancy, from new data storage techniques to advancements in programming languages. The economies are economies of scale: the cost profile of modern data centers or the efficiencies wrung from the manufacture of mobile chips. But progress may not be as smoothly and broadly distributed as it was in the age of Moore’s Law. Instead, innovations may be more localized, confined to more narrow domains. Competitive advantage will go to those who are aware of the technology hot spots, able to discern what will prove useful—and ready with the skills to seize the opportunity.
2010
Accenture technology vision
Accenture
Fractured and/or polarized societies.
Polarization of societies has become a worldwide phenomenon; however, western developed nations are particularly vulnerable due to increased empowerment of individuals. Polarization can also exist between countries.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Fractured Identities
Several contributing factors may lead to a fracturing of national identity. In a more connected world, different cultures and groups gain a better understanding of each other, which may lessen internal strife. However, as a consequence of a number of factors (i.e. migration, globalisation, human networks and transparency), citizens may begin to identify themselves differently, and thus create heightened feelings of detachment from the whole or nation state. Individuals may rally around sub-national and supra-national groups, identifying themselves in terms of their city, ethnic nationality, religious or other association. Governments, corporations and non-state actors will find it increasingly difficult to identify a single public opinion on key issues. Affiliation with anti-government or extremist groups, as well as other challenges to national identity, will contribute to state instability and possible unrest.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Fragile globalisation in a multipolar world
Fears about weakening enthusiasm for globalisation have, seemingly, been realised in the past few years. However, there are numerous variables that will shape whether the purported anti- trade environment of 2016 lasts to 2035. In the most likely scenario, globalisation patterns will be shaped less by politics and more by structural factors. Global trade is steady as a percentage of global growth, likely due to China’s reorientation towards domestic consumption and the maturing of trade in goods. A more services-oriented economy will have different requirements for global trade governance, but Beijing, Brussels, and Washington will remain the key decision points for global economic affairs.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Fragmentation of regulatory approach to ICT and big data
Despite the potential of big data and cloud computing, fragmented regulatory environments in the EU and a lack of adopted interoperability approaches and standards pose significant barriers. The lack of clear guidance in this field causes regulatory uncertainty on how to apply the relevant provisions from the existing EU regulatory framework. Member States have started to adopt different approaches, creating a risk of fragmentation of the digital single market and deterring EU wide investment and innovation.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Fragmented World
A dysfunctional Europe is absorbed in regional threats. Then United States gives up on the policeman role. Protectionism provides an initial domestic economic boost, but leads to lower global growth over the medium term. Russia and China become regionally dominant.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Frictionless Business - Built to Partner at Scale
Businesses depend on technology-based partnerships for growth, but their own legacy systems aren’t designed to support partnerships at scale. To fully power the connected Intelligent Enterprise, companies must first re-architect themselves.
2018
Accenture Technology vision 2018
Accenture
From cost to collaboration: Redefining the value chain
Outsourcing (both supply chain and traditional back office functions)1 has been a regular feature of business life for many years. Through their responses to this survey, CEOs have indicated a marked shift in their motivation for using external suppliers, from simply as a mechanism to lower cost to a means of achieving a more strategic, collaborative framework. In tandem, CEOs tell us of an increasing trend to expand the scope of activity that is covered by outsourcing arrangements, from the traditional component supplies and IT infrastructure to other activities that, in the past, were held sacrosanct, including human resource management (HRM) and R&D.
2007
10th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
From workforce to crowdsource: The rise of the borderless enterprise
Picture a workforce that extends beyond your employees: one that consists of any user connected to the Internet. Cloud, social, and collaboration technologies now allow organizations to tap into vast pools of resources across the world, many of whom are motivated to help. Channeling these efforts to drive business goals is a challenge, but the opportunity is enormous: it can give every business access to an immense, agile workforce that is not only better suited to solving some of the problems that organizations struggle with today but in many cases will do it for free.
2014
Accenture Technology Vision 2014
Accenture
Frontier Disputes
Out to 2040, the position of international boundaries and frontiers is likely to be a source of tension. These tensions will either be between two opposing states, or, by an existing ethnic or nationalist group whose historic territories are divided by an international border. Most frontier disputes are settled amicably through legal arrangements. For example, in 2008 Russia and China settled a century old dispute regarding their Amur River border. However, other frontier disputes are less liable to be settled amicably, especially where ethnic differences are aggravated by inequality and also historical antagonism, and where access and ownership of scarce resources are involved.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence