Trends Identified
Fuel cell vehicles
“Fuel cell” vehicles have been long promised, as they potentially offer several major advantages over electric and hydrocarbon-powered vehicles. However, the technology has only now begun to reach the stage where automotive companies are planning to launch them for consumers. Initial prices are likely to be in the range of $70,000, but should come down significantly as volumes increase within the next couple of years. Unlike batteries, which must be charged from an external source, fuel cells generate electricity directly, using fuels such as hydrogen or natural gas. In practice, fuel cells and batteries are combined, with the fuel cell generating electricity and the batteries storing this energy until demanded by the motors that drive the vehicle. Fuel cell vehicles are therefore hybrids, and will likely also deploy regenerative braking – a key capability for maximizing efficiency and range. Unlike battery-powered electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles behave as any conventionally fuelled vehicle. With a long cruising range – up to 650 km per tank (the fuel is usually compressed hydrogen gas) – a hydrogen fuel refill only takes about three minutes. Hydrogen is clean-burning, producing only water vapour as waste, so fuel cell vehicles burning hydrogen will be zero-emission, an important factor given the need to reduce air pollution. There are a number of ways to produce hydrogen without generating carbon emissions. Most obviously, renewable sources of electricity from wind and solar sources can be used to electrolyse water – though the overall energy efficiency of this process is likely to be quite low. Hydrogen can also be split from water in high-temperature nuclear reactors or generated from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, with the resulting CO2 captured and sequestered rather than released into the atmosphere. As well as the production of cheap hydrogen on a large scale, a significant challenge is the lack of a hydrogen distribution infrastructure that would be needed to parallel and eventually replace petrol and diesel filling stations. Long distance transport of hydrogen, even in a compressed state, is not considered economically feasible today. However, innovative hydrogen storage techniques, such as organic liquid carriers that do not require high-pressure storage, will soon lower the cost of long-distance transport and ease the risks associated with gas storage and inadvertent release. Mass-market fuel cell vehicles are an attractive prospect, because they will offer the range and fuelling convenience of today’s diesel and petrol-powered vehicles while providing the benefits of sustainability in personal transportation. Achieving these benefits will, however, require the reliable and economical production of hydrogen from entirely low-carbon sources, and its distribution to a growing fleet of vehicles (expected to number in the many millions within a decade).
2015
Top 10 emerging technologies of 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Fuel cells
Fuel cells are also potential avenues for development in environmentally-friendly energy. The development of devices offering direct conversion of a fuel’s chemical energy into electricity has for several decades laid claim to the role of a breakthrough technology capable of completely revolutionising the energy sector. The achievements of recent years have brought this technology close to the stage of mass commercial adoption and have regained interest from energy companies. Three main types of fuel cells use are being considered: stationary energy (electricity generation, cogeneration, uninterruptible power supply units); transport energy (power sources in electric vehicles, trucks, military equipment, spacecraft, etc.); portable energy (power sources in mobile devices, battery chargers, etc.). The key strengths of fuel cells are considered to be their high efficiency factor (60–80%) and small size. Shortfalls include the lack of infrastructure for charging and the high cost of platinum which is used as a catalyst.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fuel cells, catalysts for innovative energy sources
Fuel cells and catalysts for innovative energy sources will be able to use the large number of nanotechnological materials used to design various types of energy sources. In particular, these include: hybrid nanostructured proton-conducting membranes including nanoparticles which improve their transmission properties, and nano-scale catalysts based on platinum and transition metals (including “core in the shell” type catalysts) used to create fuel cells; nano-scale cathode materials with mixed electron-ion conductivity and nanostructured anode materials based on various forms of silicon and carbon, from which lithium-ion batteries are formed; There will also be developed catalysts to produce innovative energy sources and chemical products many of which are already used in industrial production. efficient nano-scale catalysts for deep processing of oil and gas products; nano-scale catalysts for conversion of natural gas and associated gases into liquid petroleum, hydrogen and valuable organic products; nano-sized catalysts for processing renewable raw materials (biogas and biomass) into valuable organic products; a wide range of nano-sized catalysts for the production of innovative energy sources and processing of natural ones;
nano-scale granular membranes based on complex oxides with a perovskite, spinel and fluorite structure, used in processes to partially oxidise methane and associated gases into synthesis gas at low temperatures, or nano-scale catalysts to convert biomass products into synthesis gas.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fully immersive virtual reality (VR)
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Improbable (UK), HelloVR (US), Magic Leap (US), Microsoft (US). See also Mind Maze (US), Facebook (US) and possibly Apple (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Fusion power
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: ITER (EU/France), Tokamak Energy (UK), Alphabet/ Google/Tri Alpha Energy (US), General Fusion (Canada), Helion Energy (US), Lockheed Martin (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Future education and learning
Education bears ever-increasing importance as an enabler of economic, societal and political participation and is a core vehicle by which society's values are passed to the next generation. Yet education too has to adapt to a changing world – not just the knowledge and skills taught, but also materials, tools and pedagogies need to step into the digital era. Never before have the potentials for equity, access and quality of education been greater – and not since the 19th century has education gone through such a severe transformation. In the 12 months to June 2014 the number of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) in- creased by 327%. Of those the 2625 MOOCs 597 were European.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Future Foods
People’s attitudes to food are changing, and science is beginning to catch up.
2018
Most contagious report 2018
Contagious
Future mobility
Over the next decades, demand for mobility will further increase. Although in some geographical areas less transport is possible, in general people and goods will be moving more often, further and faster. Technologies servicing mobility needs are largely fossil fuel based and characterised by little inter-connectivity and inter-modality. The transport sector is currently characterised by a high degree of 'technology lock-in'; high investments in existing assets prevent the introduction of transformative solutions in the market.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Future of Digital Economy and Society
The exponential growth in digitisation and internet connectivity is creating signi cant new opportunities for business and society. What makes the changes so signi cant is the combination and leverage of multiple technologies: algorithms, sensors, data, cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning and virtual reality working together that is new. These digital technologies can also combine with other technologies such as 3D printing, robotics, advanced materials, and energy storage, to have a multiplier effect on the way we live and work. The result is that digitisation is transforming what we do - from smart factories, to smart homes, to smart health - from the means of production to our personal well-being.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Future of work
When machines become workers, what is the human role? When EY first wrote about the future of work in our 2016 Megatrends report, the topic was just starting to attract attention. Skeptics doubted predictions about massive disruptions of labor by AI and robots. Now, we are overwhelmed with analyses of the future of work from the mainstream press, business literature and consultants. Predictions that seemed distant two years ago are entering the real world — from the live- testing of autonomous ride-sharing in key cities to the opening of the world’s first fully automated retail outlet, the Amazon Go store in Seattle.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY