Trends Identified
Global Warming
The average global temperature will rise 0.5-1.5 °C between now and 2030. Over the past 20 years, an overall temperature increase of 0.5 °C has been measured, with land temperatures rising about twice as fast as ocean temperatures. An increasing rate of warming has taken place especially over the past 25 years. During the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, the average global temperature was 6 degrees lower than today. Even with relatively minor average temperature increases, the nature, frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy precipitation are expected to rise. Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during the next 20 years. Two processes are at work: melting polar ice and the expansion of sea water as oceans get warmer, both a result of global warming
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global urbanisation and growing number of megacities
In the 1950s, about 70% of the world’s population lived in rural areas, and the rest in urban settlements. Today, more than half the population (54%) lives in an urban area and this number is projected to reach at least 66% by 2050
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Global unemployment remains elevated at more than 190 million
The latest developments in global unemployment are also mixed. According to the ILO’s new estimation, based on improved data sets and methodologies, the global unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 5.5 per cent in 2018 (from 5.6 per cent in 2017), marking a turnaround after three years of rising unemployment rates. However, with a growing number of people entering the labour market to seek employment, the total number of unemployed is expected to remain stable in 2018, above 192 million. In 2019, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain essentially unchanged, whereas the number of unemployed is projected to grow by 1.3 million.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Global trade and financial rules will change
The future of the Doha Round of WTO talks is uncertain, but it is unlikely that the gains made in multilateral liberalisation under the Uruguay round will be reversed. Nevertheless, the absolute shift of manufacturing production to developing countries and a likely economic slowdown among the OECD countries raise the spectre of resurgent protectionism in the North.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Global Trade
When the global economy grows, and the majority of major economies participate in that growth, a significant backlash against trade liberalisation is unlikely and international trade will grow.211 However, trade growth may be temporarily reversed in response to periodic economic, resource or financial crises. Moreover, environmental crises and rising transportation costs, linked to climate change and high energy prices, may lower, or even reverse trade growth, especially in manufactured goods.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global risks: A riskier &/or Safer world
Does greater connectivity increase the risk that local difficulties will turn into global disasters? Or does it provide opportunities to diversify and thus dilute the dangers? The preliminary evidence suggests that it may actually do both.
2008
11th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Global Risks
As we race to keep up with technological changes of unprecedented depth and speed, leveraging on new economic businesses models and conserving our environment by going towards a lower-carbon future, managing these transitions and the interconnected risks that entail will require long-term thinking, investment and international cooperation (The Global Risk 2017 Report, WEF).
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Global Publics More Upbeat About the Economy
Views of the economy have rebounded in several large and economically powerful countries. In 2009, during the Great Recession, just 10% of Japanese, 17% of Americans and 28% of Germans rated their country’s current economic situation as good. By 2017, these shares had increased by at least 30 percentage points in each country, including a 58-point jump in Germany, where 86% of the public now describes the nation’s economy as good.
2017
6 trends in international public opinion from our Global Indicators Database
Pew Research Center
Global power shifts
State borders and geopolitical relationships resulted from centuries of voyages of discovery, from colonisation, decolonisation, wars and the Cold War. Much of the political unrest in the world is caused by the globalisation of the economy [Knox and Marston, 2011]. In addition, a global power shift is taking place. Asia is becoming more powerful. During the past ten years Asian countries have accounted for half of the global growth of the Gross National Product (GNP). All indications are that within the next ten years Asia will dominate Europe and the US. The fast rise of India and China will lead to a multi-polar world in which the US is no longer supreme.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Global network development
Global networks will increasingly enable access to and provide information on commodities and capital assets. Global networks will increasingly be used for dissemination of post-truth information
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO