Trends Identified
Geospatial Technology
The process of gathering and analyzing geographical data to understand the locational patterns of a subject has become prevalent.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Geopolitics: 'Rivals will take greater risks against the US'
"No balance of power lasts forever. Just a century ago, London was the centre of the world. Britain bestrode the world like a colossus and only those with strong nerves (or weak judgment) dared challenge the Pax Britannica. That, of course, is all history, but the Pax Americana that has taken shape since 1989 is just as vulnerable to historical change. In the 1910s, the rising power and wealth of Germany and America splintered the Pax Britannica; in the 2010s, east Asia will do the same to the Pax Americana. The 21st century will see technological change on an astonishing scale. It may even transform what it means to be human. But in the short term – the next 20 years – the world will still be dominated by the doings of nation-states and the central issue will be the rise of the east. By 2030, the world will be more complicated, divided between a broad American sphere of influence in Europe, the Middle East and south Asia, and a Chinese sphere in east Asia and Africa. Even within its own sphere, the US will face new challenges from former peripheries. The large, educated populations of Poland, Turkey, Braziland their neighbours will come into their own and Russia will continue its revival. Nevertheless, America will probably remain the world's major power. The critics who wrote off the US during the depression of the 1930s and the stagflation of the 1970s lived to see it bounce back to defeat the Nazis in the 1940s and the Soviets in the 1980s. America's financial problems will surely deepen through the 2010s, but the 2020s could bring another Roosevelt or Reagan. A hundred years ago, as Britain's dominance eroded, rivals, particularly Germany, were emboldened to take ever-greater risks. The same will happen as American power erodes in the 2010s-20s. In 1999, for instance, Russia would never have dared attack a neighbour such as Georgia but in 2009 it took just such a chance. The danger of such an adventure sparking a great power war in the 2010s is probably low; in the 2020s, it will be much greater. The most serious threats will arise in the vortex of instability that stretches from Africa to central Asia. Most of the world's poorest people live here; climate change is wreaking its worst damage here; nuclear weapons are proliferating fastest here; and even in 2030, the great powers will still seek much of their energy here. Here, the risk of Sino-American conflict will be greatest and here the balance of power will be decided."
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Geopolitical; terrorism; war on terror
33% of over 1,000 KPMG sourcing advisors answered that this trend had a negative impact on user organizations.
2015
Top global market trends and predictions for 2016 and beyond
KPMG
Geopolitical uncertainty
40% of responding CEOs answered that they were 'extremely concerned'
2018
Global CEO survey
PWC
Geopolitical shifts
In 2012, the Brics countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were reported as being responsible for more than 25% of the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity and home to 40% of the global population. The axis of the world’s economic and geopolitical power has shifted – and will continue to shift – from west and north to east and south. Poverty patterns and distributions are changing alongside the wider geopolitical shifts, and donor policies are changing alongside them. Declining overseas development assistance to middle income countries and new donors entering the landscape are reshaping the nature of aid. Moreover, there is a risk that some growing political powers restrict the space for civil society action.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Geopolitical event; terrorism; war on terror, ISIS, potential North Korea, Russia, and/or China conflicts
20% of the respondents view this as a negative trend
2017
Adoption of intelligent automation does not equal success. 4Q 2017 KPMG Global Insights Pulse Survey Report.
KPMG
Geopolitical event; terrorism; war on terror, ISIS, potential North Korea, Russia and/or China conflicts
15% of the respondents view this as a negative trend.
2019
4Q 2018 KPMG Global Insights Pulse Survey Report
KPMG
Geopolitical dimension of resources
Emerging technologies and the exploration opportunities availed by climate change may allow the discovery of mineral and energy resources in previously inaccessible and possibly disputed regions as the High North
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Geophysical Risks
Between 1980 and 2000, 75% of the world’s population lived in areas affected by a natural disaster and, since 1998, around 500,000 people have been killed by earthquake activity alone,195 with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami accounting for over 40% of this total. Population growth, urbanisation in geophysically unstable regions, variable construction standards, and limitations of predictive and warning mechanisms suggest that casualty figures of this magnitude will be typical out to 2040. Demands on land usage will lead to increasing habitation in areas of significant risk, such as those susceptible to volcanic and seismic activity or low-lying coastal areas subject to inundation by tsunami. The net result is likely to be an increase in the scale of humanitarian crises and associated migration pressures.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence