Trends Identified
Global marketplace
Faster growth rates and favorable demographics in key rapid-growth markets will continue to be a feature of the next decade or so. The gulf between “mature” and “rapid-growth” countries continues to shrink. A new tier of emerging nations, driven by their own nascent middle classes, will draw global attention. Innovation will increasingly take place in rapid-growth markets, with Asia surfacing as a major hub. In the global marketplace, the war for talent will become increasingly fierce, necessitating greater workforce diversity to secure competitive advantage. The economies of the world will remain highly interdependent through trade, investment and financial system linkages, driving the need for stronger global policy coordination among nations and resilient supply chains for companies operating in this environment. At the same time, domestic interests will continue to clash and compete with the forces of global integration. Pushback and opposition to global integration manifests itself in various economic, political and cultural forms, including trade and currency protectionism, the imposition of sanctions to achieve political aims, anti-globalization protests, as well as the strengthening of nationalistic, religious and ethnic movements around the world.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Global knowledge society
In this study, we zero in on megatrend number six, the Global Knowledge Society, and its three subtrends: know-how base, war for talent, and gender gap. From basic education to workplace applications, we uncover the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead in the field of education and the need for a skilled workforce. We begin by looking at how the diffusion of knowledge can be increased. Education, of course, is the foundation of the know-how base. We track how the number of years spent in primary, lower and upper secondary, and tertiary education directly correspond to increased GDP per capita. We also examine literacy rates, how enrollment figures differ between world regions, and what can be done to level the field. This will be a critical step in ending the war for talent, where certain demographics in established economies have left them lacking skilled workers—approximately 38% of employers struggle to find suitable candidates—and emerging regions are threatened with a brain drain. We continue by examining the gender gap, comparing figures across developed and developing regions, and identifying the factors that must be addressed to bridge the difference.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global Interconnectivity
The interdependence of the global system, under-pinned by physical links, international governance and norms, and a belief in the positive benefits of international markets and trade, is likely to act as a double-edged sword. It will act as a stabilising influence between major powers by raising the costs of confrontation and conflict, but is also likely to destabilise states and regions that are unable to cope with the increased competition and social change that interconnectivity brings. Interconnectivity and interdependence is epitomised by the symbiotic relationship between China and the US. On one hand both states are likely to see each other as a security challenge, but they will continue to exploit the economic opportunities that exist between them. However, the interconnectivity of the global system also represents a significant systemic risk to highly-integrated economies given that failure of one part is likely to have broad impact.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Inequality
Economic, social and political inequality of opportunity, occurring between both individuals and groups will continue to fuel perceptions of injustice among those whose expectations are not met. This will increase tension and instability, both within and between societies and result in expressions of unrest such as disorder, violence, criminality, terrorism and insurgency. While material conditions for most people are likely to improve over the next 30 years, the gap between rich and poor is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Health
By 2040, health will be recognised as a fundamental global issue. Acknowledgement that healthcare provision contributes to stability at local, national and global levels may lead to increased international investment in global health in order to reduce inequality and also provide positive opportunities for education and training. Such developments are unlikely to be rapid, but will be accelerated by high impact events, such as pandemics and episodes of mass migration.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Governance and Economic Disparity
The great 21st century paradox is that as the world grows together, it also grows apart. Improved global governance is advanced to meet the challenge of increasing economic disparity. But this, in turn, leads to a further paradox: the conditions that make improved global governance so crucial – divergent interests, conflicting incentives and differing norms and values – are also the ones that make its realisation so difficult, complex and messy.
2011
Just imagine - RICS strategic foresight 2030
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
Global Governance
The UN will continue to offer a framework for international discourse. It will continue to be the global service provider, offering international coordination and direction in specific areas through bodies such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), UNHCR and United Nations Educational Social and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO). The permanent membership of the UN Security Council is likely to expand, but it will struggle to deal with conflict and tension. Other global institutions will face considerable challenges.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global flows of goods, information, and capital
Executives are generally optimistic that the relatively free flow of goods and capital—two core drivers of globalization—will survive the financial crisis and the economic downturn. However, few see much further progress occurring in the next five years, a finding that is consistent with the modest hopes for multilateral cooperation also seen in this survey.
2010
Five forces reshaping the global economy: McKinsey Global Survey results
McKinsey
Global environmental change
The impact of human behaviour on the state of the planet is being increasingly understood and mapped. Data on oceans, ecosystems, the cryosphere and the atmosphere are now available to show what this is likely to mean if environmental change continues at its present rate.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Global Economic Recession
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers there have been 5 global recessions in the last 30 years. Further global economic recessions will happen over the next 30 years, and governments are likely to respond to them with protectionist policies designed to shield their own economies and workforces. However, they are likely to temper the extent of such policies, to maintain the integrity of the international system for global trade and capital movements. In extremis, protectionist measures that cause the reversal of economic globalisation are possible.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence