Trends Identified
Demographics
Over the next century, changes in the world’s demography – the characteristics and composition of the global population – are likely to be dramatic. This is not just about gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan, distribution and activities of people. The world’s population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around 7 billion today, and is projected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by 2050. Over 60 percent of the global population is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Demographic shifts transform the global workforce
Never before has demographic change happened so quickly. Global employers face the challenge that, despite a growing global population, they will soon have to recruit from a shrinking workforce due to an aging population.
2011
Tracking global trends - How six key developments are shaping the business world
EY
Demographic shifts
The global population could reach 9.6 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. In 2000, for the first time, there were more people over the age of 60 in the world than children under five. By 2050, four-fifths of older people will live in developing countries, where 80% of them will have no regular income. Youth unemployment is also growing. In 2012, 15- to 24-year-olds made up 40% of the total unemployed population.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Demographic shifts
With a few regional exceptions the world’s population is ageing, putting pressure on business, social institutions and economies. Our longer life span will affect business models talent ambitions, and pension costs. Older workers will need to learn new skills and work for longer. ‘Re‐tooling’ will become the norm. The shortage of a human workforce in a number of rapidly‐ageing economies will drive the need for automation and productivity enhancements.
2017
Workforce of the future The competing forces shaping 2030
PWC
Demographic patterns
A combination of widespread aging, falling fertility, and urbanization will lead to a dramatically different world in 2030. With an expected 8.3 billion people, human civilization will be both older and much more focused on city life. Our infrastructure may improve, but our level of innovation and output will slow down without younger workers. "Aging countries will face an uphill battle in maintaining their living standards," the report stated. It's entirely possible, however, that within the next several decades, humanity will generate more urban construction than it has in the rest of its history.
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Demographic dynamics
The growth and aging of populations, migration, and urbanization are factors that will shape the course of societies and economies. As one of seven megatrends identified and analyzed in our Trend Compendium 2030, changing trends in demographics loom large. In this publication, we take a focused look at demographic dynamics, their impact on our world, and how they will affect the way we do business.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Demographic Crunch
The West’s social welfare system is under serious threat, likely deteriorating over this period. China and other middle-income powers risk unsustainable health and pension costs in the next decade. Only raising retirement age and immigration will help mitigate aging and solve the skills gap, but immigration and retirement age increases are both politically sensitive.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Demographic changes and displacement of power
Demographic changes and displacement of power, new markets, rising middle classes, and migration.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Demographic changes
The last few decades have experienced social change on a remarkable scale. In particular there have been extraordinary gains in longevity in developed countries, with average life expectancy at birth rising from 66 years in 1950 to just over 76 years in 2007 (United Nations 2007). This has had, and will continue to have, far-reaching implications for the composition of families. Meanwhile, the last few decades have also seen signi cant falls in fertility rates. Birth rates have declined sharply across developed countries generally. In 1950, the total fertility rate (TFR), i.e. the average number of children being born per woman, was 2.8, but by 2007 the TFR had fallen to 1.6, leaving many OECD countries well below the fertility rate of 2.1 per woman needed to replace the population at a constant level.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD
Demographic change
During the next decades improved healthcare, more access to education and higher living standards will lead to a population increase. According to the UN and OESO the world population will increase to 9 billion people in 2050, with a peak of 9.2 billion in 2075. An additional two billion people in forty years. In other words, increased competition over scarce resources. The average life expectancy for each region differs, but on a global scale it will rise. As of 2030 a life expectancy of 106 will no longer be surprising. The notion ‘old age’ will have to be redefined. In many developed economies 55 years old is middle-aged now. If the global trend of people migrating to cities continues, more people will be living in cities than ever before (urbanisation). These cities can only be viable places if they are sustainable, smart and resilient.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)