Trends Identified
Demographic change
The world population is expected to increase in the coming years with a demographic shift seen with number of seniors increasing as they have longer life expectancy and declining birth rates. The ageing population phenomenon is triggering one of the most significant social transformations
of the twenty- first century.
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Demographic and social change
By 2030 the world’s population is projected to rise by more than 1 billion. Equally significantly, people are living longer and having fewer children. All countries will need to implement bold policies to cope with these demographic changes. Supporting an ageing population will require greater participation in the labour force from women and the elderly.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Democratized AI
AI, one of the most disruptive classes of technologies, will become more widely available due to cloud computing, open source and the “maker” community. While early adopters will benefit from continued evolution of the technology, the notable change will be its availability to the masses. These technologies also foster a maker community of developers, data scientists and AI architects, and inspire them to create new and compelling solutions based on AI. For example, smart robots capable of working alongside humans, delivering room service or working in warehouses, will allow organizations to assist, replace or redeploy human workers to more value-adding tasks. Also in this category are autonomous driving Level 4 and autonomous driving Level 5, which replaced “autonomous vehicles” on this year’s Hype Cycle. Autonomous driving Level 4 describes vehicles that can operate without human interaction in most, but not all, conditions and locations and will likely operate in geofenced areas. This level of autonomous car will likely appear on the market in the next decade. Autonomous driving Level 5 labels vehicles operating autonomously in all situations and conditions, and controlling all tasks. Without a steering wheel, brakes or pedals, these cars could become another living space for families, having far reaching societal impacts.
2018
5 Trends Emerge in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2018
Gartner
Democratisation
Democracy has become increasingly prevalent across Africa over the last two decades. In 2011, 18 countries in Africa are considered electoral democracies, compared to only four in 1991.32 Electoral democracy is becoming institutionalised in several African countries, acting as a powerful force for economic growth and development.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Democratic governability
Democratic governability, impact of new technologies
in connecting citizens, forging social relations, improving transparency, strengthening security, and providing opportunities for organized crime and cyber-attacks.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa in 2030
The two most important events affecting the evolution of democracy in the region in the last two decades were the US Global War on Terror, especially the Iraq War, and the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Both led to major transformations in the region, which is now in turmoil: violent repression of legitimate protest and regional antagonisms have led to civil wars with over 15 million refugees; the securitisation of domestic politics, whereby ‘normal’ policy issues are treated as security threats, has put a stop to reform movements; and the low oil price and economic stagnation have further destabilised the region.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Democracy fatigued
In the West, the disintegration, or even a crisis, of democracy has been discussed for years. Turnout percentages and party memberships have steadily decreased. However, awareness of the crisis in discussions has not led to activities to reinforce democracy. Not even the financial crisis or the rise of populism have brought reforms. The game only changed in 2016. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, the subversive election struggle in the United States and Donald Trump’s presidency, which defied all familiar political models, have encapsulated many of the problems with democracy that must be solved promptly. In order for democracy to work, it must be reinforced, new methods of operation must be found and there must be greater inclusion.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
Dematerialization
Dematerialization the shift in the value structure from physical to intellectual. Knowledge society: The emergence of a knowledge society is fundamentally transforming the way we create and capture value in today’s world. Rather than land, labor, or financial assets, intellectual property and human capital have risen in importance, creating huge implications for the way we employ, educate, and communicate. For example, the rise of knowledge societies is partially driven by the proliferation of digital technology, which creates rapid exchange of information relative to the “old world.” Digitalization: As the digital world rises in prominence, consumers find themselves at a fork in the road facing both analog and digital options. For example, telecommunications providers still offer landline connections, but consumers choose smartphones and wireless connectivity, seeing minimal value in the additional cost. Scientification of agriculture: As advances in biotechnology and nanotechnology grow, the future of agriculture is evolving. Genomics are rising in importance as agricultural companies begin to invest heavily in R&D efforts to replicate a crop’s DNA sequence, selectively breed animals through genetic engineering, or use stem cells to produce meat-based products. The Internet of Things also offers significant opportunity as sensor-based technologies become more common — a breakthrough that supports “precision agriculture”. Post-industrialism: While the world was once pre-occupied with an Industrial Revolution and emphasis on a manufacturing-based economy, our world is now characterized by the rise of a service economy. In post-industrial societies, the production of goods has given way to the production of services; knowledge becomes a form of capital (e.g., the emergence of a knowledge society), and information and ideas are commoditized. Shifting power bases: As the world shifts away from an emphasis on physical strength and towards digital prowess, strength is becoming synonymous with countries which display greater technological infrastructure and capabilities. This is in contrast to the days when power was exhibited by those with a strong militia, defense systems, and weaponry.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Demand for higher education is growing, along with the costs
Australia’s highly educated workforce used to be an area of relative strength. However, it is now competing with the rapid rise in global education and computer adoption. The number of students enrolled in higher education in Australia is growing: from more than 984 000 students in 2006 to almost 1 410 000 in 2015.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Demand for Customization
Control is shifting away from the manufacturer, giving the consumer a greater say in what, when, and how they receive their goods and services (e.g., customized goods, precision medicine) due to the interaction between Web 2.0 and advanced manufacturing trends.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte