Trends Identified
The nature of conflict is changing.
The risk of conflict will increase due to diverging interests among major powers, an expanding terror threat, continued instability in weak states, and the spread of lethal, disruptive technologies. Disrupting societies will become more common, with long- range precision weapons, cyber, and robotic systems to target infrastructure from afar, and more accessible technology to create weapons of mass destruction.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
The mobility revolution
As radically innovative forms of mobility hit the mainstream, the way we move around will change forever.
2018
Trend watch 2018: the next five
Landor
The mobile payment race
It’s easy to think that the most inclusive and developed financial infrastructures will shape the future of mobile payments. In actual fact, it’s in emerging markets where the potential of mobile payments is being realized, as rapidly expanding smartphone penetration rates help mobile payments leapfrog relatively undeveloped financial infrastructures. Two payment providers in particular – Alipay and Apple Pay – are eyeing up this window of opportunity to establish themselves in these markets, and both services have the financial backing and technical know-how to seriously shake up the industry.
2018
Trends 18
GlobalWebIndex
The mobile internet and democracy: less citizen empowerment than we thought?
Realtime communications via internet and large-scale participation in social media can for the purposes of convenience be referred to
as the ‘mobile internet’. This is a relatively recent phenomenon, but it has already shown its potential to impact political affairs. The Arab Spring, the Umbrella movement in Hong Kong, and the emergence of new political parties in Europe, all owe a great deal to the emergence of new, internet-based channels for communication and networking. What impact will the mobile internet have in the coming years? One scenario is of greater participation in debate and in elections; another is of knee-jerk responses crowding out more deliberative and strategic policy-making. Some emphasise
the prospect of individual empowerment, while others worry about
a dumbing-down of the political process. A more fundamental question is whether the balance of power will ultimately shift towards, rather than away from, incumbents, who tend to have greater capacity to store and analyse user data.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The market state
The often contradictory demands of driving economic growth and providing the necessary safety nets to maintain social stability have put governments under extraordinary pressure. Globalization applies additional heat: how will distinctly national entities govern in an increasingly globalized world?
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The march of the bots
News of machines taking human jobs has caused widespread nail-biting for some time, but the tension reached fever pitch in 2017. More than 70% of people in the US are now anxious about a future where computers perform human tasks, according to a study by think tank Pew. Sinovation Ventures founder Kai-Fu Lee, for example, believes that half of all jobs globally will be replaced by AI over the next decade.
2018
Most contagious
Contagious
The man in the cardboard castle
‘Amazonification’ has become the watch word of 2017. The retail giant has subsumed more than just Whole Foods this year. It has its eye on the whole economic enchilada, the appetite to create an ecosystem and the ambition to build an empire. And as Jeff says, it’s still Day One.
2018
Most contagious
Contagious
The last straw?
Our climate is changing and so is the way we’re thinking about it. Our concerns about global warming, pollution and sustainability have experienced a cultural shift. Where once it was “too big to do anything about,” now it’s personal. In 2019, it won’t be enough for companies to simply acknowledge environmental concerns; consumers will expect commitment to be proven through action. Organizations will need to redesign their systems and business models to fit the “circular economy,” where consumers are active participants, and sustainability is built into their products and services.
2019
Fjord trends 2019
Fjord
The IoT Will Push Us To The Edge — Literally (IoT, Analytics, Edge, 5G)
One thing I noticed in putting this list together is that the IoT kept popping up, repeatedly. This is why it has found its way to the top. Gartner estimates more than 8.4 billion "Things" are on the internet today, up more than 30% from just one year ago. However, IoT alone is just the start. It isn't so much about the things, but rather what we do with these things once they are connected and supplying us data. Three of the main trends I see — the analytics revolution, edge computing, and 5G cell processing—are all driven by the IoT at their core. In fact, IDC predicts that up to 40% of all compute will happen at the edge in just the next couple of years. This is why trends 1-4 all rest with IoT.
2016
Top 10 trends for digital transformation in 2018
Forbes
The Internet will grow ever more fragmented.
Besides the U.S.-China division, internet fragmentation is also happening in less obvious places, Oxford cybersecurity expert Emily Taylor explains. Europe’s global data protection regulation (GDPR) has led some companies to overreact and block their sites to European visitors. Other jurisdictions are following suit and considering data localization laws. “You're going to end up with cross-cutting national and regional laws that are reaching over their borders, making it very difficult for companies to comply,” Taylor warns. “People will just choose to be very limited in what they do and the audiences that they try to reach.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn