Trends Identified
The global rebalancing act
CEOs are coming out of survival mode, but the search for growth is getting increasingly complicated as the global economy gradually rebalances itself. In 2012, the advanced economies were spluttering, while the emerging economies sizzled. In 2013, the picture became more nuanced. The advanced economies are mending, while some emerging economies are slowing down – and separating out in the process. By the third quarter of 2013, the US economy was already 4% bigger than it was in 2007, before the financial crisis was in full swing. The Japanese economy had also recovered all the ground it lost, although a listless performance in the second half of 2013 dented hopes that the eurozone had done likewise (see Figure 2). While the advanced economies are recovering, some of the emerging economies have been decelerating. The prospect of a shift in monetary policy in the US (which materialised in December 2013) and other advanced economies triggered substantial capital outflows from some emerging countries. These macroeconomic changes have revived interest in a number of the mature markets and exposed the weak spots in some of the emerging economies, as well as the extent to which they’re diverging.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The global population is aging
It is expected that by 2050, 22% of the world’s population (about two billion people) will be aged over 65 years.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
The global middle class will grow
The dramatic change in the global economic landscape will be both a cause and a consequence of the emergence of a new Global Middle and Rich class (GMR).4 At present, about a quarter of the global GMR population resides in developing countries. By 2030, the GMR population in developing countries will have overtaken that in advanced countries, and in 2060 about 60 percent of the world’s GMR population will reside in developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The global marketplace
The landscape of trade in goods and services has fundamentally changed since the Second World War, as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) shepherded in a more open and connected global economy. Today there are nearly 160 members of GATT’s successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). From 1950– 2007 trade grew by an average of 6.2 percent per year.52 In 2011 the total value of world merchandise trade was estimated at USD$18.2 trillion.53 Developing countries achieved a share of over 50 percent of global trade in 2012.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The global grid
The global economy is growing ever more connected. Complex flows of capital, goods, information, and people are creating an interlinked network that spans geographies, social groups, and economies in ways that permit large-scale interactions at any moment. This expanding grid is seeding new business models and accelerating the pace of innovation. It also makes destabilizing cycles of volatility more likely.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The global economy is shifting.
Weak economic growth will persist in the near term. Major economies will confront shrinking workforces and diminishing productivity gains while recovering from the 2008-09 financial crisis with high debt, weak demand, and doubts about globalization. China will attempt to shift to a consumer-driven economy from its longstanding export and investment focus. Lower growth will threaten poverty reduction in developing countries.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
The glass half-full
CEOs are more positive about the state of the global economy than they were last year. Twice as many think it will improve over the next 12 months (see Figure 1). Conversely, just 7% think it will deteriorate, compared with 28% in 2013. But there are marked regional differences in sentiment. Only a quarter of CEOs in Central and Eastern Europe believe the global economy is recovering, versus half of all CEOs in Western Europe and the Middle East. The optimism some CEOs display may therefore stem from relief that certain risks (such as the collapse of the eurozone) have been averted for now, rather than the conviction that things are really getting better. Moreover, CEOs are still cautious about whether greater global growth will translate into growth for their own companies. They’re slightly more hopeful about the short-term outlook (see Figure 1), but just as wary about opportunities over the next three years as they were 12 months ago.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The gender gap in labour force participation remains large
The much lower labour force participation rate of women, which stood at 48 per cent in 2018, com-pared with 75 per cent for men, means that around three in five of the 3.5 billion people in the global labour force in 2018 were men. After a period of rapid improvement that lasted until 2003, subsequent progress on closing the gender gap in participation rates has stalled. The sizeable gap of 27 percentage points registered in 2018 should motivate policy action aimed at both improving gender equality in global labour markets and maximizing human capabilities. Overall, labour force participation rates among adults have been declining for the past 25 years; the decline is even more pronounced among young people aged 15–24. This downward trend is projected to continue in the future. Some of the factors behind it – such as increased educational enrolment, greater retirement opportunities and higher life expectancy – are of course positive. Yet, the rise in the dependency ratio (i.e. the proportion of economically inactive people relative to the active) poses new challenges in terms of the organization of work and the distribution of resources in society.
2019
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
The Future of Work, Technology, Income Gaps and the Role of Governments
The future of work and technology and increasing income gaps are among the most discussed topics of long-term prospects at the moment. However, systemic perspectives and global as well as local strategies to improve the long-term outlook are often lacking. Government long- term and large-scale strategies are needed to address the potential scope and spectrum of unemployment and income gaps in the foreseeable future due to the acceleration, globalisation, and integration of technological capacities and population growth.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Work
The world of work is changing rapidly. Several ongoing mega-trends – including globalisation, digitalisation and demographic changes – coupled with rapid change in values and preferences regarding work, have the potential of significantly affecting the quantity and types of jobs in our economies, as well as how and by whom they will be carried out.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)