Trends Identified
The end of the 19th-century grid
One of the biggest changes we will see (or at least have made substantial progress towards) by 2020 is global electrification. In the US and Europe, most people take electricity for granted. But that is not the case in many parts of Latin America, Africa and Asia. More than 1.3 billion people still aren’t connected to the grid. More than 1.5 billion still don’t have regular access to electric light: they use oil lamps, which are a safety hazard. Even where the grid exists, it’s fragile: power blackouts are a major problem in many megacities. Power theft also plagues Brazil, India and South Africa. Safe, reliable power will have a transformative effect on these countries. Not only will there be near-term benefits such as greater productivity, but we will see long-term quantum leaps in educational achievement, healthcare and quality of life. These communities don’t have power now because our 19th-century grid is too expensive. The advent of new technologies is changing both the business models and use-case scenarios to make it possible. In a few years, the world will finally, truly, be wired.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The End of the “Death of ERP”
Rumors of ERP’s death have been greatly exaggerated Every few years we see headlines with proclamations of ERP’s imminent demise. Similar to the long-rumored “death of COBOL,” the noise could continue for decades. Part of the problem starts with the name ERP itself. In the current world, the more proper description is probably Enterprise Applications. Enterprise resource planning harkens to a time when integrated financials and payroll were first being linked to production planning and inventory controls. Over the years, however, the impact of enterprise application players like SAP and Oracle has grown substantially, well beyond automating core back-office processes. This growth was achieved first by tackling the front-office functions like customer service, sales and procurement; then by adding workflow and reporting; and finally by refactoring platforms for better integration. Throughout this evolution, the underlying problem has remained the same: allowing large, complicated organizations to profit from standardized business processes and standardized data.
2011
Tech Trends 2011 The natural convergence of business and IT
Deloitte
The end of scarcity
The world said humans were not meant to fly. Hundreds of years of human invention had been unable to make it work. But in a small bicycle-repair shop, two brothers with no government funding and only a basic education had a vision, and a will to invent. And in 1903, thanks to the determination of these two unsuspecting inventors, humans flew. The distance of the first human flight was 120 ft. Years later, one of the inventors of that breakthrough would marvel that the wingspan of modern airplanes was longer than the entire distance his first plane had flown. The potential of technology is limited only by our imagination, and our will. Abundance of water, food, clean air … peace: the end of scarcity in the supply of our basic needs is possible. Perhaps not by 2020, but it starts with the dream, the determination to turn dreams into reality, and the understanding of this truth, so well embodied in the invention and rapid evolution of human flight: that all things are possible.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The end of public anonymity
Constant monitoring and surveillance will become increasingly prevalent through the use of nano and biosensors, brain-computer interfaces, and artificial intelligence (AI). Smart devices will routinely know a person’s movements and location to within 10 centimetres, which will make it possible to infer a person’s activity, behaviour, interactions and relationships. This will make it increasingly difficult for individuals to go unnoticed, as AI can identify people from face and gait, and even determine the behaviour pa erns of those without smart devices by looking at those who do. These devices will increasingly be used to identify, authenticate and track the movement of food, goods and materials in value chains. Constant monitoring and surveillance could also enhance public health and environmental and personal security. For example, in emergency situations, sensors, AI and machine-to-machine communication could make it easier to locate people and identify their needs. As privacy becomes a major issue, there may be a need to rethink the balance between public and private interests and liberties.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of privacy
Sensors and the artificial intelligence to use and interpret the information gathered by them will become cheaper, better and faster over the next 15 years. Advances in location sensing gives an indication of the trend. Recently, Google announced the goal to have smart phones in 2015 with positional accuracy within 10 centimetres, with sufficient resolution to notice you sitting up from your desk, taking a call or snuggling up to a partner. By 2028, a package that performs like today’s smart phones could cost as little as $2 to produce. At that price, sensing will be nearly ubiquitous. Most people will carry one or several tools that measure ambient audio, location and air quality. Service providers and developers will be watching and listening to understand what’s going on, what’s around us and where we are, all to feed the helper applications that will support us in our daily lives. One’s identity will be increasingly knowable as well. Today, digital chips track our identity and purchasing histories; in the future, face recognition, and gait and gesture recognition will help identify those not digitally broadcasting their presence to the world. Will our current rules and norms about privacy hold up in the face of improved sensing? Is privacy the right to be left alone, or is it the right to prevent others from knowing anything about you?
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of gender generalization
Historically, when companies designed products, the first decision they would make was whether the brand was intended for men or for women. As gender becomes more open, inclusive, and nuanced, the overarching traditional gender decision is no longer the best starting point for brand personality. Gender roles will continue to blur and gender will often not be a helpful categorization for many brands.
2019
The top trends for brands to watch in 2019
Landor
The end of an era for plastics
Packaging is set to be key battleground in addressing the environmental impacts of business on oceans, land and air.
2018
8 sustainability trends that will define 2018
Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership
The Elephant in the Room: the Many Dimensions of Inequality in Europe
The gap between rich and poor has widened. Austerity programmes enacted by a series of EU governments since 2009, with the aim of reducing budget deficits, have had a disproportionate effect on those with lower incomes and exacerbated income differences. 1 in 4 Europeans are estimated to be at risk of poverty and social exclusion in the EU. Recent publications (e.g. Branko Milanovic’s Elephant chart) suggest that lower middle classes in rich countries have been one of the most prominent losers of globalisation in the past couple of decades. And they fuel expectations that inequality will further increase in years to come.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The economy will slow down...
Economists are split on when exactly, but they know one thing for sure: a downturn is coming. “There is a confluence of deep-seated, structural headwinds that threaten to upend the global economy,” warns economist Dambisa Moyo, among them growing inequality, a workforce ill-adapted to rapid technological change, political instability and a massive debt burden on governments, corporations and individuals. “The U.S. has historically been the leader, and the U.S. is probably going to slow down this year,” adds CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger. China is already cooling. “World growth is much more likely to slow down in 2019, and it really looks like 2020 could be the year of a global recession,” she predicts.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The economy at a crossroads
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy has endured a long period of slow growth. Although there are many signs of recovery, and there has been significant growth in countries such as the USA and Germany, there are many reasons why this growth is vulnerable. Its vulnerability is related to features such as the poor growth of productivity in the West, an ageing population, uncertain prospects in China and the price of oil, which can easily affect the global economy. Even more importantly, the unsustainable use of natural resources and carbon dioxide emissions now enforce much stricter parameters for growth than in the past. Discussions on economics have often raised the question of why growth is an aspiration. Increasing attention has been paid to the fact that the economy should above all be a means to achieve other ends, such as the experience of well-being.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra