Trends Identified
Demographics
Over the next century, changes in the world’s demography – the characteristics and composition of the global population – are likely to be dramatic. This is not just about gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan, distribution and activities of people. The world’s population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around 7 billion today, and is projected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by 2050. Over 60 percent of the global population is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Growing world population
Over the next 20 years, the world population will balloon by 1.4 billion people to 8.3 billion, up 20% (0.9% or 70 million people p.a.) from 6.9 billion today. In 1990, the world population was 5.3 billion.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Individual empowerment
Over the next 15 to 20 years, continued giving from groups like the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will lift millions of people out of poverty, the report found, to the extent that the majority of the world's population will no longer be impoverished. This new wealth will produce millions more empowered individuals that will have the means to add to local and national economies. The report hedged slightly, however, because more empowered people will also have greater access to lethal weapons and networks, which is "a capability formerly the monopoly of states."
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Growing trade and risk of rising protectionism
Over the last decades, the world has witnessed the broadest and deepest wave of globalisation it has ever seen and levels of trade and foreign direct investment progressed apace. In 2025, the volume of trade is expected to double in comparison to 2005 with most growth coming from Asia. With the economic and financial crisis, these achievements could come under pressure and progress in the negotiations of the Doha Development Agenda of the WTO, essential for the EU prosperity, could be limited. The WTO anchors international trade and a global economy in an open rules-based system based on international law.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Economic Growth
Over the last 30 years, the global economy has grown at a rate of 3- 4% and output has increased 4-fold.199 There has been regional variation: the newly- industrialised Asian economies have raised output 12-fold, while the G7 group of industrialised states have had a 5-fold increase. However, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced only a 3-fold increase, despite more than doubling its population and potential workforce during that time.200 Growth in the global economy will continue, accompanied by general improvements in material well-being. However, economic growth, combined with the continuing rise in the global population, will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals, and energy. When allied to demographic ageing and environmental and political challenges, the likely result is a reduction in global economic growth rates. This growth will continue to be uneven, fluctuating over time and between regions, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to lag behind other regions primarily because of governance challenges, linked to endemic corruption.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Role of Multinational Corporations
Over the last 30 years, industrial production has been de-centralised and geographically distributed in an unprecedented manner. Countries, regions, and firms have specialised in particular stages of a product’s manufacture in response to competition, internationalising the markets for goods, services and labour. Such specialisation requires large-scale transportation of components, and this has been facilitated by technological advances in transport and communications, and trade liberalisation.227 MNCs and out-sourcing have emerged as integrating factors in the globalised economy, producing networks of interdependence between states that are unprecedented in scale and pervasiveness. This integrating effort is likely to persist out to 2040. The rise of state-owned enterprises (5 of the 10 largest MNCs are currently state- owned by the Chinese, Brazilian and Russian governments) is likely to continue, as is the proportion of MNCs based in emerging rather than developed economies.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The battle against extreme poverty will heat up.
Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, and the global poverty rate is at its lowest level in recorded history. However, that trend may not continue into 2019 due to increasing poverty concentrations in areas like Sub-Saharan Africa, says Melinda Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. "We can’t always change the circumstances a child is born into, but we can invest in that child’s potential to thrive in spite of them by investing in their health and education,” says Gates. “Economists call health and education ‘human capital,’ because they’re proven to be the twin engines of economic growth.” Especially important, she argues, is investing in the health and education of women and girls. “Healthy, economically-empowered women are some of development’s best allies,” says Gates. “If the number of people trapped in poverty continues to decline, these women will be a big reason why.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Dynamic technology & innovation
Over the coming decades, disruptive, as well as enduring innovations will change our lives and drive wealth. There is a positive power to innovation, as it helps to solve the major challenges facing humanity, for example providing water, food and healthcare for a growing and aging population, using resources more efficiently, or fighting climate change. The fields of biology, chemistry and pharmaceuticals hold particular promise in combating these challenges. In terms of patent applications, life sciences markets are increasingly shifting from the US to Asian countries, while national research clusters in Asia are beginning to flourish.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Ageing and uneven population developments
Over the coming decades the overall population of the EU is projected to grow but it will be much older than it is now.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Ballistic Missile Defence
Over 5,000 missiles with ranges from tens of kilometres to several thousand kilometres are now distributed across more than 20 countries. Concerns regarding missile proliferation have prompted a re-evaluation of treaty constraints. Ballistic missile proliferation is likely to continue through indigenous development of missile technology by technically adept emerging powers, and the import and local adaptation of systems procured through international markets.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence