Trends Identified

Shifting Political Structures

The transition of autocratic/theocratic regimes towards more democratic forms of government will continue. The Middle East and North African region has experienced political upheaval in recent years, dislodging pre-existing regimes in several countries. The ongoing transition of some older established autocratic/theocratic regimes to more democratic forms of government will be turbulent. Over the next decades, established regimes are likely to continue to face reform movements. While this may eventually lead to new participatory and more inclusive democratic structures, transitional nations will likely weather a period of social and political instability, and possibly political reversals. For example, the republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union are in the process of democratisation and have experienced similar issues. Fledgling democracies will require more time to mature and stabilise. During this period they are at a greater risk of setbacks and civil strife.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Polycentric World

The world is becoming increasingly interconnected and polycentric. Emerging technologies, improved communications and access to modern transportation create newly empowered actors that may compete with traditional ones. The exponential rise of information technology enables dispersed individuals to act as an effective organised group within a network. This could empower and embolden organisations, advocacy groups, security providers, criminal syndicates, extremists, or individuals to attempt to shape the outcomes of political, social, economic, and environmental issues.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Changing Demographics

Future demographics will be driven by diverse effects. The world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 billion by 2030,28 but this growth will be unbalanced with varying regional effects. The average age of most Western populations is forecast to increase from the early to the mid-40s by 2030.29 Given higher birth and immigration rates, the United States will remain the youngest of the leading powers, while China’s population will age more rapidly given its increased longevity and lower birth rates. Accordingly, China will join Japan, Europe and Russia as one of the most rapidly ageing societies. India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country, whereas Russia and Brazil are likely to follow divergent paths with expected strong growth in Brazil and population decline in Russia. By 2030, the African continent is anticipated to have the fastest growing population.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Urbanisation

Cities will contain 65% of the world’s population by 2040, and 95% of urban population growth will occur within developing nations’ mega-cities33 (containing more than 10 million people). These urban centres will be situated generally in littoral areas, which provide easier access to trade and other advantages. Individuals will tend to migrate to areas offering broader employment and education opportunities, and possibly higher living standards. This will result in the urbanisation of roughly 75 million citizens every year. However, increased urbanisation is also accompanied by the growth of slums, which are expected to contain 1.5 - 2 billion people, or approximately 58% of the total urban population as early as 2020.34

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Human Networks / Transparency

Human networks are expanding at an exponential rate with many varying effects. Networks can be large or small, local or global, domestic or transnational, cohesive or diffuse, centrally directed or highly decentralised, purposeful or directionless. While they take many forms, networks are comprised of people, processes, places, and material. A human network is an alliance of socially connected individuals who are involved in activities to achieve some form of common social, political, monetary, religious, or personal goal. Although there can be many benefits and opportunities presented by modern human networks, transnational networks can also make malign use of the interconnected global environment to direct operations, raise money, obtain and train recruits, and freely exchange technological information.35

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Fractured Identities

Several contributing factors may lead to a fracturing of national identity. In a more connected world, different cultures and groups gain a better understanding of each other, which may lessen internal strife. However, as a consequence of a number of factors (i.e. migration, globalisation, human networks and transparency), citizens may begin to identify themselves differently, and thus create heightened feelings of detachment from the whole or nation state. Individuals may rally around sub-national and supra-national groups, identifying themselves in terms of their city, ethnic nationality, religious or other association. Governments, corporations and non-state actors will find it increasingly difficult to identify a single public opinion on key issues. Affiliation with anti-government or extremist groups, as well as other challenges to national identity, will contribute to state instability and possible unrest.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Technology Accelerates Change

The accelerating cycles of exploration, discovery and exploitation of technologies, along with the innovative fusion of existing, emerging and new technologies will combine to bring about change rapidly in the future. These changes will be seen in diverse areas ranging from resource exploration to biotechnology and manufacturing. Advances in biotechnology will continue to extend life expectancy, improve health and cure illnesses, while extending these benefits to broader segments of the world. The transition to digital additive manufacturing (i.e. 3D printing) and fabrication could impact settlement patterns, labour, education, transportation, public health, the environment, and the conduct of war.38 Providing a foundation for all these advances, vast improvements in information and communications technology will progressively influence all aspects of economic, political and social interactions.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Increased Access to Technology

Commercial research and technology has begun to outpace that of governments in the development of new technologies. Many of the advances in goods, materials and technologies intended for civilian use (e.g. nuclear energy, biochemical medicine, or access to space and its associated technologies) will have potential applications in the development of weapon systems. This increases the possibility that non-state actors could gain access to advanced weapons or even WMD/E. The effectiveness of regulatory conventions intended to prevent the spread of potentially dangerous technologies will be reduced by increased access within the globalised marketplace. As world trade grows, norms regarding non-proliferation may become secondary to economic benefits. The threat of uncontrolled proliferation of weapon technology to non-state actors will increase as innovation, research and development, production, and distribution become more open and globalised.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Centrality of Computer Networks

A globally connected and networked world creates a universal availability of information. Technological innovation is rapidly delivering to the average citizen the benefit of a readily accessible vast collective knowledge and intellectual capital. However, with the significant advances in sensor networks and algorithms, there will be a growing capability for almost every aspect of a citizen’s life to be monitored by the state or other entities such as corporations.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Globalisation of Financial Resources

The financial networks and communication systems that manage the world’s critical resources are increasingly intertwined. The interconnected world creates greater opportunity for better management of global resources; it may also provide incentives for co-operation and multilateral approaches in addressing global issues. However, vulnerability to exploitation by non-state actors, ranging from international criminal networks to cyber criminals and terrorists, will increase. Attackers could target banking and financial institutions or communication systems. Additionally, as nations become increasingly interdependent, a negative economic event in one country could well be compounded globally as it spreads quickly to other markets.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO