Trends Identified

The economic outlook

The economy and the future economic setting remain perhaps the most critical factor in determining to a large extent which family and household groups are affected, and how. Long-term stable growth, ample employment opportunities, sound public finances, etc. will clearly affect family/household outcomes differently to a long-term unstable economy with high structural unemployment and poor public finances. In either case, some households and families will thrive, while others will see their vulnerability grow. Policy can mitigate such inequalities and ease the situation especially of those who are the most in need. But just as the future economic setting will affect families/households dif- ferently, so it will also affect the scope and resources available for policy action.

2011

The Future of Families to 2030

OECD

Demography

The world population will continue to grow in the 21st century and is expected to nudge the 10 billion mark by mid-century. Africa will account for more than half of this growth, which will generate significant youth bulges. Elsewhere, including in many developing countries, populations will significantly age, and those over 80 will account for around 10% of the world’s population by 2050, up from 4% in 2010. With a declining share of the population in work, ageing countries will face an uphill battle to maintain their living standards. International migration from countries with younger populations could offset this decline. At the same time, technologies that enhance physical and cognitive capacities could allow older people to work longer, while growing automation could reduce the demand for labour.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Natural resources and energy

A growing population coupled with economic growth will place considerable burdens on natural resources. Severe water stress is likely in many parts of the world, while food insecurity will persist in many, predominantly poor, regions. Energy consumption will also rise sharply, contributing to further climate change. Global biodiversity will come under increasing threat, especially in densely populated poorer countries.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Climate change and environment

Mitigating the considerable extent and impacts of climate change will require ambitious targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and waste recycling to be set and met, implying a major shift towards a low- carbon “circular economy” by mid-century. This shift will affect all parts of the economy and society and will be enabled by technological innovation and adoption in developed and developing economies.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Globalisation

The world economy’s centre of gravity will continue to shift east and southwards, and new players will wield more power, some of them states, some of them non-state actors (such as multinational enterprises and NGOs) and others newly emerging megacities. Driving and facilitating many of these shifts in power and influence is globalisation, which operates through flows of goods, services, investment, people and ideas, and is enabled by widespread adoption of digital technologies. But globalisation will inevitably face counter-currents and crosswinds, such as geopolitical instability, possible armed conflict and new barriers to trade.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Role of government

Governments will be compelled to respond to the many grand challenges arising in the future in a context marked by mounting fiscal pressure, eroding public confidence in government and the continuing transition to a multipolar world, with the consequent potential for growing instability.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Economy, jobs and productivity

Digital technologies will continue to have major impacts on economies and societies. Over the next 15 years, firms will become predominantly digitalised, enabling product design, manufacturing and delivery processes to be highly integrated and efficient. The costs of equipment and computing will continue to fall, while the rise of open source development practices will create further communities of developers. There will be greater opportunity for entrants – including individuals, outsider firms and entrepreneurs – to succeed in new markets. At the same time, the decreasing cost of computing power and advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence will further disrupt labour markets, with one in ten jobs in OECD countries at high risk of being automated over the next two decades.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Society

The future will see striking changes in family and household structures in OECD countries with significant increases in one-person households and couples without children. Access to education and acquisition of skills will be one of the most important keys to improving life chances. Growth in female enrolment at all levels of education will continue, and will have important implications for labour markets and family life. The global population will be increasingly urban, with 90% of this growth occurring in Asia and Africa. Urbanisation could bring several benefits to developing countries, including better access to electricity, water and sanitation. But it could also lead to extensive slum formation with negative consequences for human health and the environment.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Health, inequality and well-being

The treatment of infectious diseases that affect the developing world disproportionately will be further compromised by growing antibacterial resistance. Non-communicable and neurological diseases are projected to increase sharply in line with demographic ageing and globalisation of unhealthy lifestyles. Inequalities will grow in many developed countries, as will poverty rates and the profiles of those at risk of poverty.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

IoT

The Internet of Things (IoT) promises a hyper-connected, digitally responsive society that will have a profound impact on all sectors of the economy and society. While it has great potential to support human, societal and environmental development, several safeguards need to be put in place to ensure data protection and security.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD