Trends Identified
Be nice to the telepresence robot
You wouldn’t rest your feet on a colleague during a meeting. But what if your workmate was a robot controlled by a co-worker many kilometres away – would it still be rude? This is typical of the new etiquette questions that will be raised by remote-controlled telepresence robots, which allow you to transport your “self” anywhere in the world to take a look around. A roving version of you, these robots could alter the way we travel and interact with each other.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
Stroll through data in the augmented city
Our cities could soon be painted with secrets we cannot see with the naked eye. The streets, buildings and sometimes even the citizens themselves would teem with virtual information. With the help of augmented reality (AR) you could see the occupancy level of a hotel emblazoned on its walls and read a restaurant’s reviews as you walk past. The people you meet might even reveal their names and job titles before you say a word. AR is about to create a new layer over the cityscape by adding graphical information from apps and the internet onto objects in your field-of-view as you peer around.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
Don’t invent, evolve
We are on the cusp of a new era in the history of invention. That’s the implication of software that can automatically “evolve” technology, and create designs that often no human would come up with. It’s already transforming fields as diverse as robot locomotion, computer security and drug design.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
Eat a printed dinner in your printed home
It’s early evening and you pull the car into the drive of your new home that was erected in just two days. Since it is your wife’s birthday, you are clutching a personalised gold necklace that you picked up from the printer. For dinner tonight, you won’t need to do any chopping or peeling – ingredients just go straight into your kitchen fabricator.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
Jacking into your brain
Of all the ways that we have been aided by technology, forging a direct link between our brains and computers is the most intimate yet. Brain-machine interfaces (BMI) are poised to challenge our notions of identity, culpability and the acceptable limits of human enhancement.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
The crystal ball internet
For around 20 years, starting in the 1980s, the political scientist Philip Tetlock sought predictions from people considered knowledgeable. His experts, 280 of them, were the kind of folk who, in their work as TV pundits or government advisors, opined on matters such as the rise of China or security in the Middle East. As time passed, he checked their forecasts. The results were dismal. “Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world… are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys,” wrote one reviewer of Tetlock’s work. Not so for a powerful new method of forecasting called “text mining”. It draws on the vast amount of data available online. By sampling the sentiments expressed in the torrent of blog posts, tweets and Facebook updates, you can gain unprecedented insights into the mood of the world and use it to predict what is to come.
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
Digital wallets will empty faster
Anthropologists know there are three things most of us now carry with us wherever we go: our keys, our wallets and our cellphones. Digital wallets could fold the last two into a single item – and perhaps eradicate cash altogether. Could it change how we spend too?
2011
Seven technologies to disrupt the next decade
NewScientist
Demographic changes
The last few decades have experienced social change on a remarkable scale. In particular there have been extraordinary gains in longevity in developed countries, with average life expectancy at birth rising from 66 years in 1950 to just over 76 years in 2007 (United Nations 2007). This has had, and will continue to have, far-reaching implications for the composition of families. Meanwhile, the last few decades have also seen signi cant falls in fertility rates. Birth rates have declined sharply across developed countries generally. In 1950, the total fertility rate (TFR), i.e. the average number of children being born per woman, was 2.8, but by 2007 the TFR had fallen to 1.6, leaving many OECD countries well below the fertility rate of 2.1 per woman needed to replace the population at a constant level.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD
Society and social trends
Just as population trends over a 20-year period tend to move quite slowly (with notable exceptions such as immigration) and are not on the aggregate susceptible to abrupt major changes of direction, societal trends also tend to develop their own momentum and can prove quite difficult to defect from past and current trajectories. The expansion of higher education, the growing participation of women in the labour market and the rising numbers of dependent elderly all seem set to become a permanent feature of the next couple of decades, although their combined effect on family formation, family interaction and intergenerational relations is hard to foresee. Conversely, future patterns of marriage and divorce or labour market participation among the elderly have the potential to spring some surprises in the years ahead.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD
Technology
New technologies can be expected to affect future family structures and interrelations in several ways. Firstly, progress in medical technologies has in the past made important contributions to extending people’s lives, and further advances can be expected in the years ahead, pushing life expectancies to new heights and significantly increasing the numbers of elderly. Secondly, information and communication technologies (ICT) have vast potential to enhance the lives of the sick, the infirm and the elderly by increasing or restoring their autonomy, particularly in the home, and enabling them to participate more actively in family life, not least in the role of carer and/or educator. Thirdly, distance working and distance learning are set to increase considerably in the coming years, as broadband availability and usage intensify and more companies, organisations and institutions avail themselves of the benefits offered by these technologies. As take-up increases so too will the opportunities for families to organise their working and learning lives more flexibly in ways that are better aligned to their needs. And finally, over the next 20 years the much anticipated expansion of social networking will almost certainly have consequences – often unexpected – for family interrelationships and interaction, in some cases enhancing them, in others perhaps hampering them.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD