Trends Identified
Going, going, ... gone?
Many of the world’s natural habitats, plant species and animal species are in decline or at risk of extinction. The actions taken by human beings in the coming decades will set the scene for global biodiversity over coming millennia. The going, going ...gone? megatrend explores the perilous situation of the world’s ecological habitats and biodiversity. This megatrend also captures the issue of greenhouse
gas emissions and climate change. Much in the natural world, that humans value and depend upon, is at
risk of being lost forever. However, there is a positive story and a potentially bright future. The megatrend is purposefully posed as a question. Whilst the state
of biodiversity is in decline and the pressure is rising so too is the human response.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
The silk highway
Coming decades will see
the world economy shift from west to east and north to south. Rapid income growth in Asia and, to a lesser extent, South America and Africa will see billions of people transition out of poverty and into the middle income classes. The powerhouses of the new world economy are China and India. This economic shift will build new export markets, trade relations, business models and cultural ties for Australia. Tourists, funds and ideas will increasingly ow out of Asian countries and into Australia’s economy and society. We are stepping into the Asian Century.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Forever young
The ageing population
is an asset. Australia and many other countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have an ageing population. Elderly citizens provide a wealth of skills, knowledge, wisdom and mentorship. Nevertheless, there are some challenges associated with an ageing population and associated demographic trends. Two of these challenges include Australia’s widening retirement savings gap and rapidly escalating healthcare expenditure.
This will change people’s lifestyles, the services
they demand and the structure and function
of the labour market.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Virtually here
This megatrend explores what might happen in
a world of increased connectivity where individuals, communities, governments and businesses are immersed into the virtual world to a much greater extent than ever before. We are increasingly moving online to connect, to deliver and access services, to obtain information and to perform transactions such as shopping and working. Online retail and teleworking in Australia are forecast to grow rapidly with impacts on labour markets, retail models, city design and transportation systems. Digital media is allowing people to form new connections and selectively access information through multiple channels with subsequent erosion
of trust in traditional information sources.
The digitally connected world is virtually here.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Great expectations
This is a consumer, societal, demographic and cultural megatrend. It explores the rising demand for experiences over products and the rising importance of social relationships. This megatrend also captures the expectation people have for personalised services that meet their unique needs and wants whilst being delivered en masse. This megatrend has implications for the Australian retail sector and human service delivery systems of government and private sector organisations. People of the future will have expectations for more personalised, better and faster services. They will seek higher-end experiences due to income growth and the oversupply of_x000B_mass consumables. Social relationships will hold increased importance given the potential for social media and digital communication burnout and the desire for face-to-face interaction. Conversely, for the billions of impoverished people in the world the expectations are still for the basic necessities of life such as water, food, clothing, shelter and personal security. Many will have great expectations, but many will still have basic expectations.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Demography
The world population will continue to grow in the 21st century and is expected to nudge the 10 billion mark by mid-century. Africa will account for more than half of this growth, which will generate significant youth bulges. Elsewhere, including in many developing countries, populations will significantly age, and those over 80 will account for around 10% of the world’s population by 2050, up from 4% in 2010. With a declining share of the population in work, ageing countries will face an uphill battle to maintain their living standards. International migration from countries with younger populations could offset this decline. At the same time, technologies that enhance physical and cognitive capacities could allow older people to work longer, while growing automation could reduce the demand for labour.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Natural resources and energy
A growing population coupled with economic growth will place considerable burdens on natural resources. Severe water stress is likely in many parts of the world, while food insecurity will persist in many, predominantly poor, regions. Energy consumption will also rise sharply, contributing to further climate change. Global biodiversity will come under increasing threat, especially in densely populated poorer countries.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Climate change and environment
Mitigating the considerable extent and impacts of climate change will require ambitious targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and waste recycling to be set and met, implying a major shift towards a low- carbon “circular economy” by mid-century. This shift will affect all parts of the economy and society and will be enabled by technological innovation and adoption in developed and developing economies.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Globalisation
The world economy’s centre of gravity will continue to shift east and southwards, and new players will wield more power, some of them states, some of them non-state actors (such as multinational enterprises and NGOs) and others newly emerging megacities. Driving and facilitating many of these shifts in power and influence is globalisation, which operates through flows of goods, services, investment, people and ideas, and is enabled by widespread adoption of digital technologies. But globalisation will inevitably face counter-currents and crosswinds, such as geopolitical instability, possible armed conflict and new barriers to trade.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Role of government
Governments will be compelled to respond to the many grand challenges arising in the future in a context marked by mounting fiscal pressure, eroding public confidence in government and the continuing transition to a multipolar world, with the consequent potential for growing instability.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD