Trends Identified
Economy, jobs and productivity
Digital technologies will continue to have major impacts on economies and societies. Over the next 15 years, firms will become predominantly digitalised, enabling product design, manufacturing and delivery processes to be highly integrated and efficient. The costs of equipment and computing will continue to fall, while the rise of open source development practices will create further communities of developers. There will be greater opportunity for entrants – including individuals, outsider firms and entrepreneurs – to succeed in new markets. At the same time, the decreasing cost of computing power and advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence will further disrupt labour markets, with one in ten jobs in OECD countries at high risk of being automated over the next two decades.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Society
The future will see striking changes in family and household structures in OECD countries with significant increases in one-person households and couples without children. Access to education and acquisition of skills will be one of the most important keys to improving life chances. Growth in female enrolment at all levels of education will continue, and will have important implications for labour markets and family life. The global population will be increasingly urban, with 90% of this growth occurring in Asia and Africa. Urbanisation could bring several benefits to developing countries, including better access to electricity, water and sanitation. But it could also lead to extensive slum formation with negative consequences for human health and the environment.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Health, inequality and well-being
The treatment of infectious diseases that affect the developing world disproportionately will be further compromised by growing antibacterial resistance. Non-communicable and neurological diseases are projected to increase sharply in line with demographic ageing and globalisation of unhealthy lifestyles. Inequalities will grow in many developed countries, as will poverty rates and the profiles of those at risk of poverty.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
IoT
The Internet of Things (IoT) promises a hyper-connected, digitally responsive society that will have a profound impact on all sectors of the economy and society. While it has great potential to support human, societal and environmental development, several safeguards need to be put in place to ensure data protection and security.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Big data analytics
Analytics tools and techniques are needed to reap the promises of big data. The socioeconomic implications are tremendous, but a major policy challenge will be to balance the need for openness with the threats that an extreme “datafication” of social life could raise for privacy, security, equity and integrity.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Neurotechnologies
Emerging neurotechnologies offer great promise in diagnosis and therapy for healthy ageing and general human enhancement. However, some neurotechnologies raise profound ethical, legal, social and cultural issues that require policy attention.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Nano/microsatellites
Increasing use is being made of small and very small satellites with growing capabilities. This will give policy makers an expanding spectrum of sophisticated tools to address “grand” challenges for both civilian and defence purposes.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Nanomaterials
Nanomaterials display unique optical, magnetic and electrical properties that can be exploited in various fields, from healthcare to energy technologies. However, technical constraints and uncertainties over their toxicity to humans and the environment continue to hinder their widespread application.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Additive manufacturing
Progressively adding material to make a product take shape is an unprecedented approach to manufacturing that warrants new business models and implies significant changes to existing industries. However, this technology must overcome several challenges, both technical and regulatory, if it is to permeate industrial processes on a large scale.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Advanced energy storage technologies
Energy storage technology can be defined as a system that absorbs energy and stores it for a period of time before releasing it on demand to supply energy or power services. Breakthroughs are needed in this technology to optimise the performance of energy systems and facilitate the integration of renewable energy resources.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD