Trends Identified

New world order

The shift of economic power to emerging markets is in full swing. Reports suggest that the GDP of developing countries is now at least equal to the developed world.46 Developing countries’ share of global exports has increased over the last decade from 33 to 43 percent. Their share of global foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow has grown from nearly 20 to over 50 percent.47 China and India are on track to have 35 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of its GDP by 2030.48 Brazil, Russia, India, and China’s combined share of world GDP is expected to match that of the original G7 countries by 2030.49 Even if these projections prove too optimistic, the rise of new economic powers may be expected to lead to a new world order.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

The global marketplace

The landscape of trade in goods and services has fundamentally changed since the Second World War, as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) shepherded in a more open and connected global economy. Today there are nearly 160 members of GATT’s successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). From 1950– 2007 trade grew by an average of 6.2 percent per year.52 In 2011 the total value of world merchandise trade was estimated at USD$18.2 trillion.53 Developing countries achieved a share of over 50 percent of global trade in 2012.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

More seats at the table

Whilst the state remains the principal actor in world politics, there are now almost four times as many states as there were in 1945. This increase in players makes international consensus on global challenges harder to reach.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Back to the future?

While overall violence has declined, conflict has not ceased. At certain times during the
last decade, 15 major conflicts were taking place at once.60 The majority of wars remain civil wars or insurgencies, largely ethnic and nationalist conflicts. Potentially devastating tensions still simmer, increasingly driven by religious fundamentalism. The stalemate of the Middle East peace process provides continued instability. Increasingly, small networks and individuals have the capacity to create havoc on an unprecedented scale at low cost.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

The “perfect storm”

Sustainability is inherently about the long term. It requires the reconciliation of environmental, social and economic demands necessary for the sustained survival of humankind and other organisms on our planet. Above all, living sustainably means grappling with the “perfect storm” associated with the inseparability of water, food, energy and climate.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

It’s the green economy

Historical, carbon-intensive models of economic growth are unsustainable. Since the Industrial Revolution there has been a strong correlation of GDP per capita with CO emissions.77 The use of carbon has yielded extraordinary benefits and none of the now advanced economies would have developed without it, but the negative costs arising from the consequent climate change now pose
a rising threat.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Health

The past century has delivered remarkable advances in health, as is illustrated by the increase of 4.7 years (male) and 5.1 years (female) to the average global life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2010. However, translating public health knowledge into practice has been fragmented and fraught with difficulty. Whilst biomedical technology and capacity to enhance the quality of health care and prevention have improved significantly, access to health care remains vastly lopsided, with the poor and disadvantaged suffering a disproportionate burden of illness and disease.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases

The growing threat today is non-communicable diseases (NDC). Most are caused by preventable factors, including poor diet, obesity and inactivity. NDCs like diabetes, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic lung disease were responsible for 63 percent, or 36 million, of all global deaths in 2008. Described as the “invisible epidemic”,88 NCDs are now
the leading cause of death in the world.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Interconnected and infectious

Infectious diseases remain a significant threat, particularly in today’s highly mobile, interdependent and interconnected world. Risks anywhere can be threats everywhere. With around 40 new infectious diseases discovered in the past 40 years, of which SARS, HIV and different types of influenza are but three, the concern about further new pandemics is not a case of if but when.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Technology

A dramatic megatrend of the last half-century has been the pace of technological change. Computing power has been doubling almost every 18 months, virtually matching Gordon Moore’s 1965 observation. This appears likely to continue for at least the next decade or two,101 and will continue to revolutionise the way we lead our lives and the way societies are governed.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School