Trends Identified
Fewer, but more productive, workers
Artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, data analytics and robots will drive significant change in many workplaces in Canada and around the world.
These technologies will transform many jobs where a routine physical or mental task is repeated;
AI will increasingly handle the routine, while workers will be free to focus on the exceptions that AI cannot handle. AI and data analytics will also increase productivity and the demand for non-routine and professional skills by reframing the way we design, coordinate, manage, deliver and assess products and services. Sensors will provide workers with a much broader picture of the processes they manage, improving efficiency and client satisfaction. Cheaper, mass-produced robots and autonomous delivery vehicles will change the flow, timing and flexibility of work. Working conditions and on-the-job safety will greatly improve for dangerous professions, largely through the use of sensors, drones and robots in fields such as mining, policing and rescue missions.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
More contract and part-time workers
As noted in MetaScan 2, more and more workers will likely be part-time, self-employed contactors in the emerging “project economy.” For the duration of a project, they may work in an office, in their home or from a creative hub or public space. Smart surfaces will enable workers to create or share a workspace anywhere, with capacity for virtual face- to-face and group-to-group collaboration. Both high- and low-skilled workers will do tasks or jobs of varying dura on for multiple employers, brokered through social media and “microtasking” apps.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Growing number of international ‘virtual workers’
The same tools that allow Canadians to work from a coffee shop will also support them in becoming “virtual workers” for employers in other countries. If they develop the right skills, they could compete globally for short tasks or part-time or full-time work. The system will also allow foreigners to bid for tasks and jobs in Canada. The workforce will become increasingly global. Worksites are emerging that facilitate finding virtual work (e.g., freelancer.ca or eLance.com). Reputation systems (e.g., eBay’s ratings system) will track individual performance, competence and specific skills to allow virtual employers to quickly find competent and trustworthy workers.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
New organizational structures
The new technologies, new work arrangements and other global change drivers are likely to generate new kinds of organizations. For instance, one can imagine a service corporation where all of the services are provided by AI with fewer human employees. A growing number of modern corporations will have a small management team that contracts out all functions through the entire product life cycle. It is possible that unorganized skilled workers will find people with complementary skills and create informal, temporary teams to take advantage of an opportunity to work together virtually to deliver a good or service.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The arrival of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles.
The transportation system is in transition. As old vehicles are replaced, the new ones will be more autonomous, smarter and more efficient. Autonomous wheelchairs and delivery vehicles, for example, may become available in hospitals, factories, warehouses and resorts. Although not yet fully autonomous, vehicles with “driver assist” are the new standard for public and personal transportation. Diagnostic tools that use AI will enable vehicles to service themselves by seeking oil changes, brake servicing – even cleaning. As vehicles become even more autonomous, their interiors could transform, allowing passengers to comfortably work or play while they move from place to place. And cars will sync with other devices (e.g., phone, computer, refrigerator) to simplify life even more. Accidents could still occur but identifying who is to blame (the manufacturer, the car’s AI designer or the owner) will become a challenge. All of these factors will contribute to new notions of vehicle ownership and liability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The internet of “moving” things.
It’s not just vehicles; the transportation system itself may also transform. AI in cars and trucks will benefit from highway – and eventually city – roads that include sensors, reflectors, information transmitters and other tools that support autonomous vehicles. Although not all vehicles will be fully autonomous, the majority will at least be “linked” with each other and with traffic control systems to facilitate coordination and communication. This will greatly improve the efficiency of the system, allowing vehicles to move more quickly and, in some areas, travel in a highly coordinated manner that minimizes gridlock. But privacy could be an emerging issue, since all vehicles may now be monitored, mapped – and possibly even controlled – remotely. Trucking and rail transportation methods will continue to compete. Lighter rail cars and the availability of biodiesel means rail may compete more strongly with trucking; however, automated caravans of trucks equipped with sensors will increase the efficiency of the trucking system and reduce costs.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Moving from gasoline engines to hybrids and electric.
The power behind transportation is changing. Both electric and hybrid engines will become more common. Energy exchanges between homes and cars using smart grids and “smart homes” technologies will become possible. Fossil fuels may be supplemented with diesel or bioethanol produced locally in bioreactors. The use of light, strong nanomaterials, including nanocarbon, in conjunction with more efficient and longer-range engines and batteries, means vehicles will be safer, weigh less and go farther. The availability of stronger and more heat-tolerant nanomaterials may allow higher running temperatures and more energy-efficient engines. Regardless of mode (airplane, rail, ship or personal car), vehicle
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Temporary jobs become the norm
In 2012, the number of Canadians with temporary jobs – often low-paying and with few benefits – was estimated to be 13.6% of the labour force and growing three times faster than traditional jobs. As these technologies evolve, we expect they will increase productivity but may result in more part-time work, short-term contracts, micro-jobs and more foreign “virtual workers” (as described in MetaScan 2). Many have described these jobs as precarious as they lack security in terms of employment, income, skill and career development. As corporations try to reduce costs to increase competitiveness, the number of temporary jobs is growing. Should we look for ways to make these workers more productive? It is interesting to note that the high-income creative class and lower-income temporary workers face similar challenges and have similar needs.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
New patterns of inequality
New technologies may disrupt the consensus on what constitutes equal and fair treatment for citizens. The technologies may level the playing field for some, while creating new barriers for others. The public policy questions include timing, efficacy and affordability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of privacy
Sensors and the artificial intelligence to use and interpret the information gathered by them will become cheaper, better and faster over the next 15 years. Advances in location sensing gives an indication of the trend. Recently, Google announced the goal to have smart phones in 2015 with positional accuracy within 10 centimetres, with sufficient resolution to notice you sitting up from your desk, taking a call or snuggling up to a partner. By 2028, a package that performs like today’s smart phones could cost as little as $2 to produce. At that price, sensing will be nearly ubiquitous. Most people will carry one or several tools that measure ambient audio, location and air quality. Service providers and developers will be watching and listening to understand what’s going on, what’s around us and where we are, all to feed the helper applications that will support us in our daily lives. One’s identity will be increasingly knowable as well. Today, digital chips track our identity and purchasing histories; in the future, face recognition, and gait and gesture recognition will help identify those not digitally broadcasting their presence to the world. Will our current rules and norms about privacy hold up in the face of improved sensing? Is privacy the right to be left alone, or is it the right to prevent others from knowing anything about you?
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada