Trends Identified
More urbanization
Another major trend will be the continuing urbanization of the world’s population, particularly in the developing world. As agriculture becomes more mechanized, there will be a continued shift from rural areas to cities–a shift accelerated by the powerful expansion of media messages touting the modernity of urban life.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Technology and science: rapid, rapid change
The pace of technological and scientific innovation will increase. Computers will become smaller, faster, and cheaper, which means that more people, in both developed and developing countries, will be connected via the Internet. Mobile phone technology, now the dominant tool of communication in many regions, will reach close to global coverage in the coming generation.22 Technologies will become more than repositories of knowledge: they will be increasingly smarter, more autonomous, and more anthropomorphic, with voice- and gesture-based commands.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Uneven growth, increasing inequality
Technological development seems to portend a fundamental change in the relationship between productivity and employment, as shown in Figure 2. This means that the economy can grow without producing many jobs, a trend with particular import in those countries that still have a growing youth population – countries that tend to be at the bottom of the global power scale. In spite of the democratization of at least some forms of technology, there is little reason to expect decreasing inequality. Rather, trends of increasing economic inequality – particularly the growth of the very rich – are likely to continue. Economic growth will be driven by technology that has the potential to increase the power of large corporations. There will be more consolidation of large businesses: a trend well underway, as a quick glance at the airline or any other major industry will show. In wealthy countries, labour-intensive work will increasingly be outsourced to Asia and there will be more automation/robots in sectors where unskilled workers have traditionally found jobs, giving rise to a permanent underclass of unemployment.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing global patterns
At the international level, the relative power of Western liberal democracies will decline as they struggle to deal with both demographic and economic shifts, even as the power of other countries increases. While the trends seem clear that China’s power is rising while the US is declining as a hegemonic power, these are likely to develop over several generations. Power is slowly but clearly slipping from the Atlantic alliance to the Pacific region (although the differences within Asia are probably greater than those within the Atlantic region).
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing domestic determinants
As demonstrated most recently by the Arab Spring, however, the possibility of widespread changes in the relationship between the governing and the governed is likely. The era of dictators seems to be coming to an end – at least, of dictatorships as we know them – although it is still too early to tell. The power of social media, rising standards of living, increasing access to education, and urbanization will all drive citizens to demand more of their governments.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Climate change: more disasters
The likely trends over the next thirty years are for increases in the severity and intensity of sudden onset natural disasters, particularly those related to weather (storms, hurricanes, cyclones, flooding). These will increasingly affect urban populations, in part because there will simply be more people living in cities and in part because more people will be living on more marginal land. Climate change will also drive rural to urban migration.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Conflict: prolonged, simmering, and increasingly urban.
The first point to make about future trends in conflict is that it is likely that many of today’s simmering conflicts will continue to do so in the coming decades. Most conflict in the future is likely to be protracted, to be fought by armed groups for personal gain, and to be to be fought in cities. The lines are becoming more blurred between gangs, warlords, insurgents, child soldiers, paramilitary forces, and drug traffickers, all of whom will increasingly operate in urban environments. Finally, there is terrorism. As high-tech weapons become smaller, cheaper, and more widely available, they will be used by an even wider variety of groups than they are now.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
The riddle of work and income
The revolution of work has long been under discussion, and the industrial world is on the brink of the unknown. The rapid progress of technology that has led to digitisation, robotisation, artificial intelligence and automation is modifying almost all areas of known activity. However, there is currently no clarity as to what the revolution of work ultimately means. Public debate often addresses the significant diminishing of work and traditional workplaces while, on the other hand, welcoming the flourishing of new types of working methods and the creation of workplaces with the aid of new technologies.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
Democracy fatigued
In the West, the disintegration, or even a crisis, of democracy has been discussed for years. Turnout percentages and party memberships have steadily decreased. However, awareness of the crisis in discussions has not led to activities to reinforce democracy. Not even the financial crisis or the rise of populism have brought reforms. The game only changed in 2016. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, the subversive election struggle in the United States and Donald Trump’s presidency, which defied all familiar political models, have encapsulated many of the problems with democracy that must be solved promptly. In order for democracy to work, it must be reinforced, new methods of operation must be found and there must be greater inclusion.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
The economy at a crossroads
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy has endured a long period of slow growth. Although there are many signs of recovery, and there has been significant growth in countries such as the USA and Germany, there are many reasons why this growth is vulnerable. Its vulnerability is related to features such as the poor growth of productivity in the West, an ageing population, uncertain prospects in China and the price of oil, which can easily affect the global economy. Even more importantly, the unsustainable use of natural resources and carbon dioxide emissions now enforce much stricter parameters for growth than in the past. Discussions on economics have often raised the question of why growth is an aspiration. Increasing attention has been paid to the fact that the economy should above all be a means to achieve other ends, such as the experience of well-being.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra