Trends Identified
Infrastructure in transition
Infrastructure comes in many forms: transportation, buildings, services and communications technology, among others. There is a high probability that infrastructure of every kind will be influenced by the technologies explored in this foresight study.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Shifting competitive advantage
The emerging technologies will make it harder to find and keep competitive advantage in the production of some goods and services. Bioproduction through synthetic biology will likely make it easier and cheaper to make some classes of goods. These technologies have the potential to help countries be more self-sufficient in some foods, fuels and materials. Advanced nanomaterials and nanodevices are likely to require a more educated workforce and more intricate production, resulting in a smaller number of competitors using these technologies.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Strengthening the risk management system
Risk management is an approach that allows governments to assess, implement and evaluate policy, regulations, processes – and, in some instances, even products and services – to ensure that standards for public safety are met. Current approaches to risk management rarely go beyond the short- and mediumterm, focusing on only first- and second-order consequences. The discipline of foresight can assist by systematically considering plausible futures, which can help uncover unexpected risks and buy time in the face of future challenges. As new technologies proliferate, the possibility of unforeseen consequences increases and citizens will look to governments to help them make sense of a potentially shifting terrain. This presents a variety of possible challenges.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Regulation of rapidly evolving S&T
The rate of change in science and technology is likely to accelerate, and science and technology are likely to play an increasingly important role in our economy and our lives. Product safety, public trust and competitive advantage will best be served by systems with efficient and timely testing and regulation.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Traditional notions of IP may no longer be relevant
The institutionalization of intellectual property (IP) regimes by national governments is designed to create economic incentives for research and development that, over time, may improve social welfare. The new technologies could help solve global problems in areas like health care, energy and security. Rigid and globally inconsistent IP regimes could allow IP owners to block innovation, limit the pace of development, exclude the possibility of new entrants and even threaten international relations.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Exploring new approaches to productivity and innovation
The emerging technologies described in this study point to the importance of innovation as a key driver of the economy. Human capital, government policies, societal actors from all sectors and physical infrastructure are major elements of an innovation system. How can we redesign societal systems to maximize innovation?
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Demographic dynamics
The growth and aging of populations, migration, and urbanization are factors that will shape the course of societies and economies. As one of seven megatrends identified and analyzed in our Trend Compendium 2030, changing trends in demographics loom large. In this publication, we take a focused look at demographic dynamics, their impact on our world, and how they will affect the way we do business.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Globalization & future markets
Globalization is a multifaceted process not limited to economic effects — political and social aspects are closely intertwined. But globalization has both proponents and critics. As the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump shows, the progress of free trade agreements and thus globalization strongly depends on the accordance and objectives of political leaders. In an interconnected world, migration constitutes one major facet of globalization with a strong impact on society and political debate.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Scarcity of resources
Population and GDP growth, urbanization, and a growing global middle class lead to an increasing demand for energy. Continued development in non-OECD countries is expected to increase demand by 29% between now and 2030, mostly concentrated in Asia, and particularly China and India. In 2030, like today, most energy will come from fossil fuels. A continued reliance on fossil fuels is tempting, but it also risks accelerating climate change. Despite the dominance of fossil fuels, the sun remains a vast, mostly untapped energy source, delivering more than 1,300 times the Earth's daily energy consumption to land each day. Water and food also stand to become increasingly scarce—we predict global water demand to rise 32% by 2050, driven mostly by the growing manufacturing and electricity sectors. Scarcity of water is already widespread, however, and even today many European countries face low resources per capita. By 2050, over 50% of the world's population will live in water-stressed areas. Demand for food will also increase 43% by 2050, mostly driven by population growth and changing eating habits. A final area of scarcity is critical raw materials. China is the major supplier of these materials, which include rare earth elements and metals. Demand for these raw materials will grow depending on the supply situation. The main challenge associated with these shortages is one of regional imbalance: most critical raw materials are produced outside of Europe, and conflict over these resources could arise between developed and developing countries.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Climate change & ecosystem at risk
Global warming and strategies to offset carbon emissions are two of the most prevalent issues of the 21st century. As economies continue to grow, so too does the demand for energy and, as a result, CO2 emissions. As part of Roland Berger’s leading Trend Compendium 2030 , this in-depth analysis takes a detailed look at what growing energy demands mean for the future of industry. We investigate three key components – global warming, rising CO2 emissions, and the obstacles faced by our ecosystems – to uncover the global challenges that climate change will bring with it.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants