Trends Identified
Disease outbreaks
Ncidence rates of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) have fallen since 2000 (Figure 19), and the number of deaths due to various types of infectious diseases, including parasitic diseases and respiratory infections, declined globally from 12.1 million in 2000 to 9.5 million in 2012.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Hunger and food insecurity
The global demand for food is projected to increase by 50 percent by 2030 compared with the current needs in order to meet the increasing demand of the world’s growing population (Maggio, Van Criekinge and Malingreau 2015). The growing global population, along with accelerating urbanization and deteriorating natural resources, implies that there are more people to feed with less water, land and rural labour (FAO 2015). Finding a sustainable solution to providing more food to nearly 9 billion people by 2030 without harming the environment thus poses a great challenge for the 2030 Agenda and SDG 2 on ending hunger in particular.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
The Changing Context of Development Cooperation and Financing Sustainable Development
In order to achieve the universal 2030 Agenda, drawing on all sources of finance— public and private, domestic and international—in all countries will be essential. The challenge is to enhance the impact of available resources, while also catalysing additional sources of financing into investments in sustainable development.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Technological Innovations for Sustainable Development
Rapidly developing technologies have reshaped the lives of communities, families and individuals around the world through providing new goods and services, including to “bottom of the pyramid”72 consumers, creating new industries and markets, and changing demand for labour and capital (Ramalingham et al. 2016). New technologies have been recognized by the 2030 Agenda as an important means for implementing the SDGs across economic, social and environmental dimensions, and as a critical instrument to address existing and emerging challenges. However, while technologies can bring many benefits to communities in both developed and developing countries, they can also carry significant risks, as discussed later in this chapter.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Growing scarcity of water world-wide
Apart from its human impact on the most exposed societies, water scarcity may lead to conflicts and forced migration. Europe could be affected both directly and indirectly, and faces considerable challenges as a result.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Increasing inequality
Foresight reports repeatedly confirm this trend, particularly in the West, and see it as a pre-eminent concern. Inequality poses critical challenges for the process of European integration, in social, economic and political terms.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
US military power in 2030
Changes in the technological, political, economic and even social bases of the US could change the global order. What consequences are there for Europe?
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Asian century: economic powerhouse or stuck in transit
Asia is likely to eclipse Western Europe and the United States in a shift of economic power over the next five decades, regaining the dominant economic position it had some 300 years ago. Two influential studies, from the Organisation for Economic Co-opera on and Development and from the Asian Development Bank, predicted several years ago that the 21st century is likely to be dominated by Asia - the 19th century having belonged to Europe and the 20th century to the United States - if that continent’s governments pursue policies of inclusive growth, innovation, good governance and avoid what economists call the Middle Income Trap.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Jobless growth: will robots and computers destroy our jobs?
Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes predicted nearly 80 years ago that the world would face ‘technological unemployment’ ‘due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.’ Most mainstream economists say that the current technical revolution is set to destroy many jobs, but that it will create enough new ones to prevent unemployment from spiralling out of control. This is what happened during previous industrial revolutions. But a growing number of experts believe that Keynes’ prophecy may materialise in the 21st century, although wise government policies may significantly alleviate the process.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Blockchains and trust: a revolution, reformation or just another tech-toy?
OECD statistics show a constant decline in trust in national governments since 2007. Recent scandals such as the Panama Papers play their part. However, the issue goes much deeper when corruption and fraud govern. Then, societal perceptions change even faster in search of solutions to poverty, inequalities and vulnerabilities in infrastructure. Here, the blockchain technology that undergirds crypto-currencies could have a far-reaching impact as it is a cheap, tamper-proof and data based technology that can replace trust with transparency. It is a breakthrough that will fundamentally change people’s notions of centralised authority. Hence, zero-trust computing, digital public ledgers and self-executing smart contracts are emerging, blockchain-based trends that will be increasingly important in the coming years — by 2023 at the latest, according to the World Economic Forum.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)