Trends Identified
Additive Manufacturing in 2030: how the next Gutenberg revolution may bring production
back to Europe
Additive Manufacturing (AM, also referred to as 3D printing) refers to the process by which three-dimensional products are built from the bottom up, adding material layer-by-layer on the basis of a digital file. Through this additive approach it is possible to manufacture complex shapes and intricate parts at near 100% material utilisation that could not have been made by traditional means. Due to its flexibility, its potential to fundamentally alter the production cycle and to ‘democratise manufacturing’, some believe AM and 3D printing to be the precursor of an ‘Industry 4.0’, a shift to a digitalised, automated and data-oriented manufacturing industry.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Intolerance and hate crime: the return of an old problem?
Increased intolerance has long been identified as a worrying trend in foresight reports. For example, the EUISS stated that ’Migrants and ethnic minori es will become the main target of groups opposing cultural diversity, and are likely to be the victims of xenophobia in many developed countries‘. The EUISS report framed it in the context of developments that were otherwise quite encouraging. It suggested that ’the decline of theories of conflict between civilisations and cultural relativism is therefore likely, although economic and
social difficulties may reverse this positive trend in some countries, and extremist identity politics and xenophobia will continue to leave
a mark on some parts of the world.’ In a similar vein, the Rand report spoke of the possibility that the presence of ethnic minorities would be widely regarded as undesirable and divisive. More recently, the refugee crisis from 2015 prompted the World Economic Forum to note that ’insularity, xenophobia and right- wing populism are gaining ground across the continent, calling into question the integration process and a common European front on international security policies‘.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The mobile internet and democracy: less citizen empowerment than we thought?
Realtime communications via internet and large-scale participation in social media can for the purposes of convenience be referred to
as the ‘mobile internet’. This is a relatively recent phenomenon, but it has already shown its potential to impact political affairs. The Arab Spring, the Umbrella movement in Hong Kong, and the emergence of new political parties in Europe, all owe a great deal to the emergence of new, internet-based channels for communication and networking. What impact will the mobile internet have in the coming years? One scenario is of greater participation in debate and in elections; another is of knee-jerk responses crowding out more deliberative and strategic policy-making. Some emphasise
the prospect of individual empowerment, while others worry about
a dumbing-down of the political process. A more fundamental question is whether the balance of power will ultimately shift towards, rather than away from, incumbents, who tend to have greater capacity to store and analyse user data.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Russia and China in 2030: authoritarian alliance or geopolitical rivals?
The relationship between China and Russia is likely to become stronger and Moscow’s dependency on Beijing will grow: Russia will be the junior partner. If Russia can cope with the limitations of this position, it could benefit from such a role.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa in 2030
The two most important events affecting the evolution of democracy in the region in the last two decades were the US Global War on Terror, especially the Iraq War, and the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Both led to major transformations in the region, which is now in turmoil: violent repression of legitimate protest and regional antagonisms have led to civil wars with over 15 million refugees; the securitisation of domestic politics, whereby ‘normal’ policy issues are treated as security threats, has put a stop to reform movements; and the low oil price and economic stagnation have further destabilised the region.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Filters and catalysts for water purification
2006
Global Technology Revolution 2020
RAND Corporation
Cheap housing for adaptable shelter and energy
2006
Global Technology Revolution 2020
RAND Corporation