Trends Identified
Collapse of a Pivotal State.
The sudden collapse of a pivotal state would threaten regional and global stability. For example, the descent into instability of a major hydrocarbon exporting state, such as Nigeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia or Russia, would have local and regional consequences, disrupting global energy supplies. This would affect global energy markets causing widespread economic, social and political dislocation. Similarly, if internal tensions caused instability within China the global economy could be disrupted by the simultaneous drop in demand for raw materials and reduced supply.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Cure for Ageing.
The development of a treatment that could prevent or cure the effects of ageing would have a significant impact on global society. Initial access to such an advance could be highly unequal and only be available to wealthier members of society, mostly in the developed world. The whole fabric of society would be challenged and new norms and expectations would rapidly develop in response to the change.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
New Energy Source.
A novel, efficient form of energy generation could be developed that rapidly lowers demand for hydrocarbons. For example, the development of commercially available cold fusion reactors could result in the rapid economic marginalisation of oil-rich states. This loss of status and income in undiversified economies could lead to state-failure and provide opportunities for extremist groups to rise in influence.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Collapse of Global Communications.
A failure of the global communications system could occur for a variety of reasons; for example the destruction of satellites following an orbital electromagnetic pulse detonation or solar flare, or the complete overload of the global ICT infrastructure. Such an event is not without precedent. For example, in 1859, solar flare activity was linked to the collapse of the telegraph system when spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set telegraph paper on fire. A similar collapse in the modern world would cause trade, commerce and the Internet to grind to a halt. Military operations dependent on the availability of communications networks would also be put at risk. Remaining bandwidth would see intense competition for access.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
External Influences.
A number of strategic shocks could occur that are broadly outside the control of society, but would have considerable impact. These include a highly lethal pandemic, a geological or meteorological event of unprecedented scale, such as the eruption of a super-volcano, or the discovery of non-terrestrial intelligent life. In the military domain, the development of a new, as yet unforeseen capability that allows one state to exercise technological dominance over others would have a significant impact on the strategic context. Potential examples could include; quantum decryption, whole-scale application of nano-technology, biotechnology weapons or advanced robotics. This could ultimately result in the defeat of a Western military force on the battlefield in a ‘maxim gun’ moment,139 against an adversary who has the technological advantage over the West.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing Demographics
The global population is likely to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.8 billion by 2040.140 The developing world will account for most of the growth, remaining relatively youthful, in contrast to the developed world and China, which will experience little population growth and undergo significant increases in median age.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Language Development
English is likely to consolidate its position as the internationally dominant language for data and global services. Other supplementary transnational languages, such as Mandarin, Spanish and Arabic, may also proliferate as engagement in globalised communication increases. Sophisticated translation devices are likely to become widely available before 2040.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Migration
The number of international migrants has increased from a total of 75 million a year in 1965, to 191 million a year in 2005 of whom around 10 million are refugees, and up to 40 million are illegal migrants.146 That number may grow to 230 million by 2050.147 Populations in many affluent societies are likely to decline, encouraging economic migration from less wealthy regions.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Dynamic Diaspora
Societies, including the UK, will become increasingly transnational.153 Growing proportions of their populations are likely to consist of ethnic groups that are a mixture of newly arrived immigrants and established second and third diaspora generations. Developed economies are likely to sustain an economic gradient for immigration which may have a transformational effect on their society and culture. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) developments and advanced mass- transit systems will facilitate and increase connectivity between ethnic and national diaspora and their communities of origin. These advances may reduce incentives for integration and assimilation and allow self-contained ‘virtual’ communities to exist across continents. Less benignly, diaspora will remain a medium for the international transmission of social risk, including: inter-communal violence, extremism and transnational organised crime, especially trafficking, smuggling and illicit trade. Such communities are likely to show local responses to transnational issues.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Role of the Family
The movement of people in pursuit of economic opportunity and a secure environment will create more cosmopolitan population centres and change the character and utility of the family.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence