Trends Identified
Computers embedded in clothing or other wearable items
2006
Global Technology Revolution 2020
RAND Corporation
Bio-technology
Biotechnology, genomics, and proteomics 1 are now major driving forces in the biological sciences and are increasingly being applied in the study of environmental issues, medicine and pharmaceuticals, infectious diseases, and modifications of food crops. Bio-technology has the potential to lead to sustainable solutions for a range of sustainable development issues. 2 or example, genetically modified organisms could help address food insecurity in developing countries, but their impact on ecosystems, human health and community values may need to be better understood to be considered a truly sustainable solution. 3 Experience has shown that deployment of such technologies needs to consider the local situations and possible trade-offs. 4 Synthetic biology is a field of great promise and possible dangers. Tailor-made medical solutions, gene therapy, technology disruption in the food industry, bio-engineered medicines, and precise bio-inspired drug delivery systems that target specific infected cells - together with stem cells - give many promises. However, if inappropriately used, it could cause irreversible changes to human health and environment. 5, 6, 7 Synthetic biology requires effective policies and frameworks to manage all stages of their life- time, including manufacturing, distribution and use, as well as safe disposal or where possible effective recycling. 8, 9, 10 New and emerging gene-editing technologies and their implications, benefits, and potential ethical problems for biotechnology and medicine have generated international scientific debate, with recommendations to establish norms concerning acceptable uses of human germline editing and harmonize regulations. 10 Genuine “human engineering” may not be far off in the future, when technologies related to gene-editing, stem cells and computational models of the human brain will be combined.
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
Digital Technology
Digital information and communications technologies (ICTs) have continued to rapidly advance. All parts of the world are now major users. Mobile phone ownership in Africa is now comparable to that in the USA, with about one connection per capita. Yet, while some digital gaps have closed, others continually open with the introduction of new technologies. In the context of implementing SDGs in Africa, information and communications technologies may play a role comparable to that of machines in the replacement of labour in the industrial age. 11 However, whereas the machines of the industrial era functioned as isolated and individual artefacts in one local environment, ICTs and knowledge creation exist as a hierarchy of networks that bring about innovations. 12, 13 Great technology potential has been accompanied by equally great concerns about social, political, economic and environmental impacts . The new fifth generation (5G) mobile phones enable vastly faster data connections than traditional phones. The “Internet of Things” is emerging and it interconnects physical objects to internet infrastructure. 3D printing enables the making of three-dimensional objects from a digital file, and together with robotics it has the potential to significantly alter the geographical distribution of manufacturing with important impacts on global labour markets and imbalances. “Big data” technologies transform the way governments, citizens, and companies do business, but they have led to concerns about erosion of privacy and freedom of expression. Similarly, wireless sensor networks have great efficiency potentials in many areas, but there are concerns about their impact on privacy, freedom and development. Big Data and the Internet of Things through the use of huge datasets and Internet-connected sensors potentially adds to the existing toolkit for sustainable development (e.g., in health, agriculture, food security, sustainable urbanization, etc.), but can also introduce risks related to data privacy and security. Because of cloud computing platforms that provide low-cost access to compute and storage capabilities as well as Free and Open Source Big Data and Internet of Things technologies, such technologies can serve as platforms for locally-relevant, pro-poor innovation without significant capital investments. However, this requires the requisite local talent to tailor solutions to local needs. National governments must also consider the limits of big data analysis (especially for causal inference and policy analysis), how such technologies can serve existing national development planning, regulatory frameworks for securing the rights of citizens with respect to privacy and security, and strengthening human capital and the larger ecosystem to effectively use such tools. 14 “Big data” has transformed the volume, velocity, and character of the information that we are able to procure regarding virtually every aspect of human life. 15 Online participatory tools increasing transparency and accountability in global sustainable development governance allow greater access to sharing of substantive information on the issues addressed by the civil society, international organisations and member states for realization of agenda 2030. 16 At the same time, the scientific community highlighted the idea that the most sustainable way to bring the deepest results of the digital revolution to developing communities is to enable them to participate in creating their own technological tools for finding solutions to their own problems. 17 120 | Global Sustainable Development Report 2016 3D Printing (3DP) can cost-effectively lower manufacturing inputs and outputs in markets with low volume, customized and high-value production chains. It could potentially help countries and regions that did not participate in the industrial revolution develop new manufacturing capabilities, especially for low volume, highly complex parts. Applications range from automobile and aerospace manufacturing to rapid-prototyping, healthcare, and education. Low cost consumer 3DP printers can help local people in developing and developed countries to produce a range of useful products, from basic assistive technologies to educational aids. For example, the projects of the Rapid Foundation in India and Uganda have shown that low cost printers are easy to build, use, fix or modify and are robust in remote locations. With expert training, anybody can become comfortable with using these printers in a few hours. 18 Further low-cost applications in science, education and sustainable development are detailed in a recent ICTP open book. 19 3D printing presents a number of challenges, including possibly disrupting existing manufacturing global value chains, decreasing labour demand for housing and construction, and potentially enabling the physical production of illegal 3D models that could pose both economic and security threats. There are potential environmental benefits (lower energy use, resource demands and CO 2 ), if 3D printing displaces existing transportation and logistics routes for shipping of goods and products. A recent study concluded: “ If 3DP was applicable to larger production volumes in consumer products or automotive manufacturing, it contains the (theoretical) potential to absolutely decouple energy and CO 2 .” 20 However, as 3DP is expected to remain a niche technology by 2025 reductions in energy and CO 2 emission intensities of industrial manufacturing could only be reduced by a small factor through 3DP by that date. Massive Open Online Courses potentially provide resource- poor regions and individuals more equitable access to world-class education content. Widespread global Internet access is impacting how we learn, as seen in the availability of various online learning platforms such as massive open online courses (MOOCs). 21 With low-cost replication of recognized content and education, personalized, self- paced learning, and interactive data-driven user interfaces, students potentially have access to material that previously would have been out of reach. However, MOOCs may not provide locally-relevant content tailored to a specific national context. Furthermore, MOOCs could replace the jobs of existing teachers and widen existing educational divides (i.e., providing a disproportionate advantage to individuals with access to the Internet and education). One nonprofit university based in Rwanda combines online learning content with in-person seminars to deliver degree programs that are locally-relevant, appropriately priced, and stimulate local employment. At this point, the potential impact of MOOCs requires more study, both globally in terms of existing platforms as well as of users in specific national contexts, along with implications for educational systems and employment. Optimal system use of radio, mobile phone, GIS and remote sensing technologies is considered vital for transforming rural populations. 22 The use of GIS to monitor an ever wider array of parameters at ever higher spatio-temporal resolutions allows us to consistently and constantly measure and monitor a huge array of environmental factors, allowing the enforcement of regulations, which would otherwise be impossible. 23, 24 Yet, data management remains a challenge for many countries, as they lack both skilled staff and technologies for effectively collecting or reporting reliable data. Many of the commonly used spatial database platforms are proprietary and are too expensive for many organizations in developing countries. 25
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology 26 is a field of enormous promise and big challenges. It is reported to have high potential for increasing innovation for sustainable development in the energy, water, chemical, medical and pharmaceutical industries. 27 Nanoimprint lithography is expected to lead to large-scale manufacturing of nanotechnology products with various positive and negative sustainable development challenges. Nano-products might revolutionize many fields including medicine, electronics, energy and water, as well as food industry in the coming years. At present, there are high expectations about high-performing nanomaterial solar cells and nano-technology applications for decentralized water and wastewater treatment, and desalination. 28 Recently, scientists in Singapore have demonstrated converting CO 2 into methane using light and amine-functionalized titanium dioxide nanoparticles – this would allow storing intermittent solar energy in the form of natural gas which could then be burned in a carbon neutral way. The implications of unethical and uncontrolled use of nanotechnology have created an ongoing debate in the scientific community around concerns about their toxicity and environmental impact (e.g., nanowaste). 29, 30, 31 The OECD and IUCN are currently working with several governments to develop suitable and efficient regulations and policies, and urge a more unified and collaborative approach at all levels to address this potentially hazardous issue through experience- and knowledge-sharing, coordinated research activities, development of guidelines for producers, users and waste-processing facilities 32, 33 and examination of existing guidelines or policies. 34 ANNEXES | 121 As nanotechnology can be damaging to environment and human health, it requires effective policies and frameworks to manage all stages of their life-time, including manufacturing, distribution and use, as well as safe disposal or where possible effective recycling. 35, 36 There are many promising future, inorganic and organic nanomaterials . Examples include perovskites, gold nanoparticles, graphene, carbon nanotubes, carbon nanodots and conducting polymers. Carbon based nanomaterials are very interesting as they rely on abundant carbon and have much potential as high performance substitutes for many materials that are scarce and highly resource intensive in their extraction process. Iron, cobalt, and nickel nanoparticles can be alternatives to scarce metals like platinum, rhodium, and gold for catalysis . For example, layered iron and nickel nanomaterial are a more sustainable alternative to rare-earth “supermagnets”.
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
Neuro-technology
Smart technologies will be crucial technologies until 2030 and beyond. They will help societies to monitor, detect as well as respond or adapt to changes in their environment. Smart technologies are already and will become a part of our daily lives. 37 For example, smart electricity metering has addressed the problem of the losses of electricity due to theft. 38 Emerging technologies in the area of artificial intelligence have received much attention in which computer systems that carry out tasks normally done by humans, such as speech recognition and decision making. Another example is robotics which is understood as machines or mechanical systems that automatically handle tasks. Mesoscience 39 powered virtual reality gives us the possibility to realize the logic and structural consistence between problems, physical models, numerical methods and hardware, which, together with the dramatic development of computing technology, is opening a new era for virtual reality. Digital Automation characterizes the increasing ability of computers to overtake cognitive - and not just physical - tasks, enabling recent innovations like driverless cars, IBM Watson, e-discovery platforms for legal practice, and personalization algorithms for Web search, e-commerce, and social networks. The potential consequences of automation and artificial intelligence on employment are emerging areas in need of examination; the expansion of computing and machine intelligence is likely to affect healthcare, education, privacy and cybersecurity, and energy and environmental management. Recent studies are pointing to the possibility that a significant number of jobs - or job tasks - are amenable to automation, leading to a job polarization where demand for middle-income jobs are reduced while non-routine cognitive jobs (e.g., financial analysis or computer programming) and non-routine manual jobs (e.g., hairdressing) would be less unaffected. At this point, more study is warranted to understand implications for employment and socio-economic development in a specific national context. Autonomous vehicles or self-driving cars hold the promise to increase traffic efficiency, productivity, reduce traffic congestions and pollution, and save driving time. In 2016, the Dubai Autonomous Transportation Strategy was launched which foresees 25 per cent of all trips in Dubai to be driverless by 2030. The Autonomous Transportation Challenge as launched as a request for proposals to global R&D centres to apply this technology in Dubai. It will make Dubai the world’s largest R&D lab for driverless transportation. 40
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
Green technology
Green technology refers to environmentally sound technology. Existing technologies as well as new nanotechnology, biotechnology, and digital technology may all be deployed in new ways to reduce non-renewable resource use and to utilise and support ecosystem processes. Technology change in the energy and materials sectors are key. 41 In the energy sector of developed countries, crucial technologies suggested by experts include smart grids, highly energy efficient buildings, electric vehicles, vastly improved and cheap batteries, nuclear power, hydrogen- fueled vehicles and supply infrastructures, and natural gas technologies. In developing countries, they included new ways of electrification, desalination based on reverse osmosis, small and medium sized nuclear reactors, and mini-grids based on intermittent renewables with storage. 42 Cheaper and highly energy efficient fossil fuel power plants will be needed. Highly efficient vehicles including hybrid cars and intelligent transport systems (ITS) technologies for controlling traffic flows will be important. 43, 44 Large- scale deployment of solar power, and technologies to replace aluminium and other high impact materials are equally important. 45 Salinity gradient power technology could potentially produce 80 per cent of the global energy demand. 46 Passive housing technology could make a big difference in energy use, as it results in ultra-low energy buildings that require little to no energy for space heating or cooling. Decentralized electric power systems are expected to play a very important role in coming years, especially for ensuring that no one is left behind. To this end, RD&D is needed in such systems (efficient appliances, intermittent 122 | Global Sustainable Development Report 2016 supply solar, wind) and in interactions with heat pumps for space heating, heat and power storage and electric mobility. Innovative community and business models will be needed to operate such systems in terms of reliability, affordability, sustainability and safety and privacy. Another component of this emerging technology system will be integrated urban and rural mobility, notably a well- functioning public transport infrastructure, new mobility options (e.g., e-bike, e-car, greenwheels) and in some areas biofuel supply chains. 47 Hence, deployment of off- grid electricity systems and even direct current can be a core solution to achievement of the SDGs. 48, 49 They should be given ample research funding. 50, 51 For example, off- grid electricity could be used to dry grain 52 and to store and transport perishable food, 53 in order to reduce food wastage. 54, 55 Institutional innovation does not only promote the development and deployment of technologies, but also provides the foundations for paradigm shift. In China, block tariff of household electricity consumption accelerated replacement of incandescent fluorescent lamps with LED lamps. Feed-in pricing of wind-power and solar PV are thought to have contributed to make China the country with highest increase in and the largest installed capacity of wind and solar PV in the world. 56, 57, 58 Cookstoves with the emissions comparable to those of an LPG stove would play an important role in the achievement of the SDGs, given the enormous and multiple benefits that could come from the large-scale deployment of such a stove. 59, 60 Globally, more than 2 billion people rely on traditional use of biomass fuels for cooking and heating and have limited access to clean and efficient energy for lighting. Increasing access to clean and efficient cookstoves and fuels can also ensure lasting, inclusive gains in the areas of poverty eradication, food security, health and well-being, education, gender equality, economic growth, reducing inequalities, sustainable cities, environmental protection, and climate change mitigation. Effective deployment of these technologies requires substantial engagement of women. Developers need to put female users at the center of their concepts, design and deployment stages. 61 Technologies for pollution purification will be of the utmost importance until 2030. New technologies for detection and removal emerging contaminants in stormwater, for drinking water, and wastewater treatment and reuse are emerging. In the future, every gasoline-powered motor vehicle would be equipped with emission purification plant, and polluting enterprises would be installed with comprehensive purifying equipment. Meanwhile, environmentally-friendly energy would be widely used in diverse industries. 62 New technologies are emerging that support a transition to a circular economy. 63 These include technologies for remanufacturing, technologies for product life- cycle extension such as re-use and refurbishment, and technologies for recycling. 64 Social innovation will also play an important role. The level of performance and deployment will depend on material streams and the specific context. Proposed by the EU Circular Economy Package of December 2015, a recycling rate of 65 per cent for municipal solid waste may be achievable by 2030. 65 Technological advancement should foster an urban metabolism that is sustainable in itself not dependent on other regions for the supply of resources and the discharge of waste. 66 In this direction, new recycle and reuse technologies and multifunctional infrastructures play a pivotal role. Technologies for integrating centralized systems and decentralized systems for provision of services such as energy and potable water are also emerging. 67, 68, 69, 70, 71 A whole range of new deep sea mining technologies are emerging, but many of them are not yet commercially viable. These technologies could have greatly impact sustainable development, in view of their impacts on global resource use and their potential benefits for island nations. 72 The production of food for half of the world’s population continued to depend on fertilisers made by fixation of nitrogen through the Haber-Bosch process. Technologies for nitrogen fixation that are less energy intensive and that avoid very high H 2 pressure would be highly desirable. Advances in bio-organometallics and materials chemistry are greatly increasing the efficiency of biomimetic analogs of nitrogenase , a natural enzyme that can fix atmospheric nitrogen at room temperature and pressure without the need of molecular hydrogen. Improvements in geophysical research and seismic exploration of the ocean floor, through the application of marine Vibroseis (MV), show potential in providing an environmentally safer alternative to airguns, which have negative effects on marine animals. 73 Artificial photosynthesis is close to commercialization. It is now possible to produce different carbohydrates directly from CO 2 and water using merely sunlight. Artificial leafs, when immersed in water, directly produces hydrogen and oxygen. These leafs consist of wireless, low-cost, thin film amorphous silicon multi-junction cells. 74
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
Globalisation
During the next 30 years, the number of transactions, conducted irrespective of physical distance, is likely to increase. Such an expansion is likely to shape and, in general, improve everyday life for millions of people. A key feature of globalisation is likely to be the continuing internationalisation of markets for goods, capital, services and labour, which integrates geographically dispersed consumers and suppliers. This is likely to be an engine for accelerating economic growth, but also a source of risk, as local markets become increasingly exposed to destabilising fluctuations in the wider global economy.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Climate Change
Overwhelming evidence indicates that the atmosphere will continue to warm at an unprecedented rate throughout the 21st century. A scientific consensus holds that a large part of this warming is attributable to human activities, primarily through increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. However, there is uncertainty about the rate and magnitude of change over the next century.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Inequality
Economic, social and political inequality of opportunity, occurring between both individuals and groups will continue to fuel perceptions of injustice among those whose expectations are not met. This will increase tension and instability, both within and between societies and result in expressions of unrest such as disorder, violence, criminality, terrorism and insurgency. While material conditions for most people are likely to improve over the next 30 years, the gap between rich and poor is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Innovation
Innovation will create new opportunities and generate value, by successfully exploiting new and improved technologies, techniques and services, overcoming cultural and process barriers. It will occur when invention reduces costs to a point where an explosive growth cycle is realised or where a new market is created.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence