Trends Identified
Diverging global population trends
Across the world, the basic determinants of population size and structure — fertility, mortality and migration — have been fundamentally altered by the processes of social and economic development. As a result, the global population doubled to 7 billion in the last half century and will continue growing fast in coming decades, although regional trends differ markedly. In advanced economies, populations are ageing and in some cases reducing in size. At the other extreme, populations in the least developed countries are expanding rapidly. Migration is also affecting the distribution and structure of populations, as people move in search of higher earnings or to escape conflict or environmental degradation.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Living in an urban world
Urbanisation is an integral aspect of development. As countries transition from primarily agricultural economies, the shift to cities offers substantial productivity gains. Jobs and earnings in urban settings create strong incentives for internal migration, often reinforced by government policies and environmental degradation. Only later in economic development do urban-rural disparities begin to dissipate, easing the pressure for further urbanisation. Together, these drivers have brought extraordinary changes to the geographical distribution of humanity during the last century. Whereas just 10–15 % of the global population lived in urban areas in the early 20th century, that figure had risen to 50 % by 2010 (WBGU, 2011) and is projected to reach 67 % by 2050 (UN, 2012). Almost all of that growth is expected to occur in today's developing regions, with urban populations there increasing from 2.6 billion in 2010 to 5.1 billion in 2050.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The world is currently experiencing a major shift in health problems related to economic development and changing lifestyles. Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (such as HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). Non-communicable diseases are also the most important cause of death in the world and are typically associated with developed-world lifestyles. But although communicable diseases are globally in decline, they still pose a significant health burden, especially in the developing world. A third factor in changing health conditions is the persistent threat of pandemics.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Accelerating technological change
The pace of technological change is accelerating. The shifts in technological paradigms that once were separated by centuries or millennia — such as the development of agriculture or the industrial revolutions based on steam and then electric power — are now occurring within a single lifetime. Indeed, the pace at which new technologies are being adopted by the market and used in society has rocketed over the past century and a half. In the early 1900s, it took more than 30 years for a quarter of the US population to adopt telephones and radios — but more recently, the World Wide Web reached this level in only seven years.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Continued economic growth?
The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 significantly reduced economic output in many developed countries, particularly in Europe. While its continuing impacts are apparent in less optimistic long-term economic projections for Europe, virtually all mainstream outlook studies foresee economic expansion globally in the coming decades as Asia's huge populations continue their shift to Western patterns of production and consumption.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
An increasingly multipolar world
Globally, economic power is shifting. In the last century or two, a relatively small number of countries, together accounting for about a fifth of the world population, have dominated global economic production and consumption. Today, a significant rebalancing of power is under way, with Asian countries coming to the fore. Economic and demographic projections suggest that the influence of today's wealthiest economies will continue to lessen as other countries and regional power blocs become increasingly important — economically, politically and diplomatically. As global interdependence and trade expands, Europe has opportunities to benefit from improving its resource efficiency and knowledge-based economy.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Intensified global competition for resources
As they grow, economies tend to use more resources — both renewable biological resources (see GMT 8) and non-renewable stocks of minerals, metals and fossil fuels (addressed in this chapter). Industrial and technological developments, and changing consumption patterns associated with growing prosperity all contribute to this increase in demand.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Growing pressures on ecosystems
Driven by global population growth and associated demands for food and energy, as well as evolving consumption patterns, the pressure on the Earth's ecosystems is continuously increasing. Despite some positive developments, such as a recent reduction in the rates of tropical deforestation, global biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation are projected to increase.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
In the past 150 years, the atmosphere and the oceans have warmed, snow and ice cover has decreased, sea levels have risen and many extreme weather and climate events have become more frequent. This warming of the global climate is unprecedented over millennia.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Increasing environmental pollution
Across the world, ecosystems are today exposed to critical levels of pollution in increasingly complex mixtures. Human activities (such as energy generation and agriculture), global population growth and changing consumption patterns are the key drivers behind this growing environmental burden.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)