Trends Identified
Global trade and financial rules will change
The future of the Doha Round of WTO talks is uncertain, but it is unlikely that the gains made in multilateral liberalisation under the Uruguay round will be reversed. Nevertheless, the absolute shift of manufacturing production to developing countries and a likely economic slowdown among the OECD countries raise the spectre of resurgent protectionism in the North.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Regional agreements between Europe, the US, and Africa face an uncertain future
Contrary to many fears, the end of the Multi- Fibre Arrangement did not mark the end of trade preferences for Africa. Both the United States and the European Union introduced new preferences in 2001. The future of both preference schemes is uncertain.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Aid flows are likely to diminish
By 2060, aid will have decreased in importance as a driver of Africa’s development. There will be new players in the aid industry (international NGOs, private businesses, non-DAC donors) bringing new approaches. However, the total volume of aid to Africa is likely to diminish.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Climate Change
Climate change is a threat globally, and a particular menace to Africa. Many African countries are already under various forms of climate-related stress - drought, floods and rainfall variability - which, coupled with low adaptive capacity, make them highly vulnerable to climate change. Because the African continent is already among the hottest parts of the Earth, further warming will have adverse implications for socioeconomic development and welfare.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Natural Resources
Mineral discoveries and growing demand will change mining and sustainability will challenge renewables
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Land and water
In spite of the continent’s immense size, pressures on land and water will shape the future. As population pressure increases, it is likely that more land will be cultivated for longer periods of time, reducing vegetative cover, lowering soil fertility and accelerating erosion. Water consumption will increase for each of the major uses - irrigation, domestic and industrial. In sub-Saharan Africa, mean water withdrawals and total water consumption will increase at least up to 2025.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Infrastructural Deficit
In terms of access to infrastructure services, Africa lags well behind other developing regions. Weak physical infrastructure is a key factor that has prevented African countries from successful integration into the global trading system. Poor infrastructure is behind the higher trade cost that Africa, especially its landlocked countries, face compared with other regions. Poor infrastructure accounts for 40 per cent of transport costs for coastal countries and 60 per cent for landlocked countries. Africa seems to have failed to sustain the gains that were made during the three decades up to 2000. In this respect a number of countries are failing to expand services fast enough to keep up with rapid demographic growth and urbanisation. If the present trends prevail, Africa is likely to fall even further behind other developing regions, delaying universal access for a half century or more in many countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Delayed Demographic Transition
Compared with other parts of the developing world, Africa’s demographic transition is delayed and highly variable across countries. Africa’s population is projected to peak at 2.7 billion in 2060, compared to 1.0 billion in 2010 (Figure 12). The projections show the population growth rate declining, following a similar trajectory to other major global areas.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The Burden of AIDS
AIDS will remain an exceptional challenge With only about 12 per cent of the world’s population, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for over two-thirds of the global burden of infectious and parasitic diseases. Worldwide, Africa accounts for 9 out of every 10 child deaths due to malaria; 9 out of every 10 child deaths due to HIV/AIDS; and half of the child deaths due to diarrheal disease and pneumonia. While major progress can be expected in combating the majority of infectious and parasitic diseases, HIV/AIDS poses a particular challenge for the continent, especially for sub-Saharan Africa.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Land Tenure and Access
Recent trends in both rural and urban areas in sub- Saharan Africa suggest that the institutions governing land access may become a critical source of tension in the coming decades. Land tenure systems need to be able to respond to demographic, physical and economic pressures. However, the process of change is typically very slow, and societal constraints on public action may be substantial.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank